Reliable Median Price Source

Hi @stevehank this is a common issue, it takes a while to get the feel of different data sources, some measure house vs unit, others only the total market, and still others by the bedroom. Personally I have a few paid data sources and I like to check them against each other, not that one is always correct, but the more source points I have the better picture I get. For example your suburb:

One data source had the house median at $370k at end of 2014, it has fallen a bit but on a very small sample so that could mean low stock and statistical anomaly or falling market with no buyers, all based on actual sales.

Another has Lower Quartile:$306k
Suburb Median:$388k
Upper Quartile:$424k
but this one doesn’t differentiate between units and houses.

Another has a median list price (current for sale not sold) of 3 bedroom homes as at $355,500

Again, small sample size, low stock levels can mask median figures and make them very difficult so alone it isnt a magic number. I agree buying below median is a good way to reduce risk when investing but so is knowing your market. If you really know the area and your gut tells you that nothing is listing below a certain price and the market is strong then your median ballpark might be ok. Another way would be to cross check the medians of nearby larger suburbs because their data set is larger leading to better statistical validity. If you know that suburb x is 3 times bigger, and around the same price, then look that the median over there to check against your suburb.