All Topics / Help Needed! / Property under contract. Help me please to calculate ROI

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  • Profile photo of RussianAussie (QLD)RussianAussie (QLD)
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    @russianaussie
    Join Date: 2015
    Post Count: 20

    Dear investors,

    Help me calculate ROI for this investment please

    How do you think what would be the approximate price of this property without a contract?
    http://www.realestate.com.au/property-apartment-qld-surfers+paradise-119307259

    My estimate is $180-220K but I’m just a newbie :)

    Best regards,
    Alex

    RussianAussie (QLD)
    https://www.facebook.com/sanderinoz

    Feel free to write me a message or add me in Facebook to chat about property investing

    Profile photo of Jacqui MiddletonJacqui Middleton
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    @jacm
    Join Date: 2009
    Post Count: 2,539

    Never mind about the price. It’s not a great investment proposition. Just looking at the holding costs quoted in the ad, it is cashflow negative even if you bought the place without a mortgage.

    38067-31611-3604-5922 = – $3070 per annum. That’s a loss of $3070 per annum, even if you bought the property for cash without the burden of mortgage repayments.

    Jacqui Middleton | Middleton Buyers Advocates
    http://www.middletonbuyersadvocates.com.au
    Email Me | Phone Me

    VIC Buyers' Agents for investors, home buyers & SMSFs.

    Profile photo of RussianAussie (QLD)RussianAussie (QLD)
    Participant
    @russianaussie
    Join Date: 2015
    Post Count: 20

    Thank you for your reply!

    If this property costs above $250K it could be still a good investment

    Cost: $115K+$3K*8years=$139K

    Final cost in 2022:
    $180K, compound annual ROI = 3.28%
    $200K, ROI = 4.65%
    $250K, ROI = 7.61%
    $300K, ROI = 10.09%

    So the question is what final 2022 price could be assuming 0% p.a. capital gains?

    Best regards,
    Alex

    RussianAussie (QLD)
    https://www.facebook.com/sanderinoz

    Feel free to write me a message or add me in Facebook to chat about property investing

    Profile photo of superAndrewsuperAndrew
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    @superandrew
    Join Date: 2014
    Post Count: 188

    So you are asking what the price could be in 2022 with 0% capital gain? The answer is the same as today.

    Regarding ROI: The property is running a loss of $3070 p.a. and assuming 0% capital growth, the ROI will be -ve.

    This is a negatively geared property and you would solely rely on capital growth for returns.

    Cheers
    Andrew

    superAndrew | Property Analyser and Finder Tool
    https://property-analyser.com.au

    Profile photo of RussianAussie (QLD)RussianAussie (QLD)
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    @russianaussie
    Join Date: 2015
    Post Count: 20

    Hello Andrew,

    Today’s this 112 m2 property costs $115K that is significantly below Gold Coast average because it’s under a contract

    Are you sure that the price will be the same without the contract that will end in 2022?

    Best regards,
    Alex

    RussianAussie (QLD)
    https://www.facebook.com/sanderinoz

    Feel free to write me a message or add me in Facebook to chat about property investing

    Profile photo of superAndrewsuperAndrew
    Participant
    @superandrew
    Join Date: 2014
    Post Count: 188

    Sorry I didn’t get the contract part.

    Investors have difficulty estimating the value of a property today but you want to estimate it 7 years into the future. Any answer you come up with will be heavily reliant on your assumptions.

    If your strategy is to buy this property with the contract at a discounted price and then sell it when the contract expires then you can:

    1. Figure out the value of the property today without the contract using comparable sales.
    2. Estimate an average capital growth rate for the next 7 years. (Here you can’t just take an average capital growth rate that includes houses, townhouse and apartments. It should be specific to the property type and number of beds)
    3. Apply the cap rate to the value of the property without the contract.

    Then you can use that value, the purchase price and holding costs to estimate the ROI.

    Cheers
    Andrew

    superAndrew | Property Analyser and Finder Tool
    https://property-analyser.com.au

    Profile photo of RussianAussie (QLD)RussianAussie (QLD)
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    @russianaussie
    Join Date: 2015
    Post Count: 20

    Thank you for your help!

    RussianAussie (QLD)
    https://www.facebook.com/sanderinoz

    Feel free to write me a message or add me in Facebook to chat about property investing

    Profile photo of Jacqui MiddletonJacqui Middleton
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    @jacm
    Join Date: 2009
    Post Count: 2,539

    Keep in mind that this is in a building with many apartments and many different owners. It is quite unlikely that at the end of the contract, every owner will vote to not renew the contract. Be careful in assuming the use of the property will become normal residential at the end of the contract. Many a person has been stung by this assumption.

    Jacqui Middleton | Middleton Buyers Advocates
    http://www.middletonbuyersadvocates.com.au
    Email Me | Phone Me

    VIC Buyers' Agents for investors, home buyers & SMSFs.

    Profile photo of RussianAussie (QLD)RussianAussie (QLD)
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    @russianaussie
    Join Date: 2015
    Post Count: 20

    So owners do not have a direct agreement with the management if they have to vote, don’t they?

    Who is usually the second participant of the agreement with onsite management in this case? Body corporate?

    Best regards,
    Alex

    RussianAussie (QLD)
    https://www.facebook.com/sanderinoz

    Feel free to write me a message or add me in Facebook to chat about property investing

    Profile photo of superAndrewsuperAndrew
    Participant
    @superandrew
    Join Date: 2014
    Post Count: 188

    Keep in mind that this is in a building with many apartments and many different owners. It is quite unlikely that at the end of the contract, every owner will vote to not renew the contract. Be careful in assuming the use of the property will become normal residential at the end of the contract. Many a person has been stung by this assumption.

    Do all the owners need to agree not to renew the contract? I guess you would need to read the contract in detail.

    Given the current yield of the property I don’t see it that unlikely that they wouldn’t vote to renew it.

    Cheers
    Andrew

    superAndrew | Property Analyser and Finder Tool
    https://property-analyser.com.au

    Profile photo of Jacqui MiddletonJacqui Middleton
    Participant
    @jacm
    Join Date: 2009
    Post Count: 2,539

    It only takes one person with insufficient understanding or business smarts to be the odd one out and mess up a unanimous vote…

    Jacqui Middleton | Middleton Buyers Advocates
    http://www.middletonbuyersadvocates.com.au
    Email Me | Phone Me

    VIC Buyers' Agents for investors, home buyers & SMSFs.

    Profile photo of RussianAussie (QLD)RussianAussie (QLD)
    Participant
    @russianaussie
    Join Date: 2015
    Post Count: 20

    OMG!

    If I decide to participate in such type of deal, I will hire best real estate solicitors to check these papers

    Thank you for the advice!

    Alex

    RussianAussie (QLD)
    https://www.facebook.com/sanderinoz

    Feel free to write me a message or add me in Facebook to chat about property investing

    Profile photo of Modernity InvestingModernity Investing
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    @mark-coburn
    Join Date: 2006
    Post Count: 181

    I think this concept is designed for only one winner and it’s not the guy buying in.

    If there is clearly a “Greed Button” being pushed by the seller then buyer beware!

    Assumptions that sound all-good on paper usually come back to bite the buyer, long after the seller is gone.

    Modernity Investing
    Email Me

    Profile photo of Richard TaylorRichard Taylor
    Participant
    @qlds007
    Join Date: 2003
    Post Count: 12,024

    Away from all of that good luck in getting finance at anything over around 50% lvr (if you were lucky).

    Cheers

    Yours in Finance

    Richard Taylor | Australia's leading private lender

    Profile photo of RussianAussie (QLD)RussianAussie (QLD)
    Participant
    @russianaussie
    Join Date: 2015
    Post Count: 20

    Thank you!

    Alex

    RussianAussie (QLD)
    https://www.facebook.com/sanderinoz

    Feel free to write me a message or add me in Facebook to chat about property investing

    Profile photo of Brett MBrett M
    Participant
    @brettmesser1
    Join Date: 2016
    Post Count: 14

    If there is clearly a “Greed Button” being pushed by the seller then buyer beware!

    That is great advice!

    • This reply was modified 7 years, 11 months ago by Profile photo of Brett M Brett M.
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