House prices to drop 30%!! Or Will They?

Don’t really care anymore. I won’t be the only one in the sinking ship. Let them go down, the bank can deal with the problem then.

I was actually about to post something asking whether people would think property prices would fall around March 12th 2014.

 My reason being that's the date the credit laws will change. Instead of being a negative credit reporting system it'll now be a positive reporting system. Even though the law won't take effect until March, it uses any data from December 2012 onwards. Anyone who has been late on any payments by 5 or more days will have a black mark against their RHI (repayment history information) for each and every late payment and it won't say anything about the amount owed.

 Here's some info on it if anyone's interested: 

http://au.tv.yahoo.com/the-daily-edition/video/watch/21562490/black-marks-for-missed-payments/ (video)

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/big-black-mark-for-new-credit-reporting-rules-20140210-32d1i.html

 In any case it'd be in everyones interest to familiarise themselves with the new law as that'll effect who can get a home loan that previously couldn't and who can't that previously could. 

Harry Dent is just trying to promote his new book.

Yes the powers that be have everything under control. Absolutely nothing to worry about here. We're different downunder.

The Chinese on the other hand have a few problems….

China Folds On Reforms – Bails Out 2nd Shadow-Banking Default After "Last Drop Of Blood" Threats

…. but I'm sure it's nothing… 

What have we got to worry about. Aussie banks are rock solid… right?

Western Banks And China: "Interesting Times" Are Coming

• In other words, we now have additional evidence of the growing vulnerability of Australia specifically. As we already pointed out in our musings about how “financial contagion” might spread from China in spite of its closed capital account, Australia is a pivotal region. Australia's economy greatly depends on China's commodity imports, and its banks have financed an enormous real estate bubble on the back of the commodities boom.
• Moreover, Australia's banking system itself is highly dependent on foreign short term funding sources. Although the chart above doesn't tell us anything about the maturities of the claims on China, we would not be surprised if many or even most of the loans to China had much longer maturities than the foreign funding Australian banks get from (mainly) Europe. The main point is though that we have yet another source of potential trouble for Australia here – the exposure of Australian banks to China amounts to 9% of Australia's GDP at this point.

But never mind… I'm sure these guys have got it all wrong and things will be honky dory for a while yet.. after all can't China just keep building stuff until the cows come home???? Of course they can…

"Off The Charts" How China Fooled The World

• Here's the problem: one can't put the January lending surge aside, as it came at a time when for the second time in six months the PBOC tried to taper, only to be forced to not only bail out its money markets, but is on the verge of a bankruptcy tsunami involving its shadow banking products, the first of which it also bailed out despite repeated warnings this time it means business and would let it die.
• In this context, the January number is precisely what it appears: the bank's logical response to a liquidity crunch as the Chinese regime finds itself in the same spot that the Fed has been in for the past 5 years – it must keep the monetary spice flowing, or else the party is over. And just like the Fed, and now the BOJ, so too does China not want to deal with the fall out if all it takes to created yet another quarter of increasingly subpar economic growth is another record of funny money conceived out of thin air.
• The only problem is that it is becoming increasingly difficult to hide all the pieces of funny money, most of which result in bad and otherwise impaired loans, under the rug. And just to show the problem in its context, here is how China's banks created some 50% more in bank loans in January than the QE credit money created by both the Fed and the BOJ combined.

But even if China has a few little problems we can always bank on the US to hold things together…..after all over the last 5 years they've thrown a combined $30 trillion at the problem so it must be fixed and we're all gonna be alright.

5 Years Later – What Did The ARRA Achieve?

I'm so relieved that so many of you believe everything's going to be alright and the rumors of an impending crash are nothing but rumors spread by scaremongers with nothing better to do.

My two favorite comments that i have ever see are here lol

1) joe – I love what you said take the banks down with you lol

2) dark night – harvey dent was known as two face, so you  are right about tursting…..

Any investment has its own risk, there will be times when prices go up, remain stable and the same.

If property goes down 30% the only real time you are at risk in loosing money is by selling the property in a bad market, if the market crashed by 30% I wil be buying a few properies….

Will it happen – who knows

will it not happen – who knows

just handle the best outcome and reduce your risk….