- Freckle wrote:
I can't exclude myself from this group totally as I have been guilty of being the fool in earlier days and am not yet rid of the odd foolish impulse.
Nice to see some humility
I am far from understanding the complexities of investing. I guess only experience, exposure and a bucket load of reading will change that.. However, I could sit on the sidelines, like the majority do, or join the 'fools' and place myself strategically in a position to get lucky.
It's usually ones greatest failures that drive people to succeed. Whatever happens I'm prepared.
I'll keep you updated on the progress of the portfolio over the coming 12 months (is that your current financial collapse prediction?). Maybe that China thing will kick in by then and you can really get stuck into it.
sciencesurf
http://sciencesurf.wordpress.com/
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sciencesurf wrote:I am far from understanding the complexities of investing.
You're in good company. I don't know anyone who is including the likes of so called Nobel prize winning economists.
Quote:I guess only experience, exposure and a bucket load of reading will change that..It helps. Until the GFC I only had a passing interest in macro economics. Most economic concepts are simple common sense. Academics like to complicate the hell out of it to justify their models.
Quote:However, I could sit on the sidelines, like the majority do, or join the 'fools' and place myself strategically in a position to get lucky.Experience is when you learn to differentiate when to move to the side lines and when to join the fools.
Quote:It's usually ones greatest failures that drive people to succeed. Whatever happens I'm prepared.No you're not… you're never completely prepared.
Quote:I'll keep you updated on the progress of the portfolio over the coming 12 months (is that your current financial collapse prediction?).I haven't put a time frame on it. You can't underestimate the lengths govt's and banks will go to to keep this thing afloat. The longer this goes on for the worse are the repercussions and longer the recovery. Nothing has improved at all since 08. Debt is magnitudes larger and the so called regulation and legislation has actually moved more towards a cowboy system.
The longer this takes the more I'm inclined to think this will end extremely badly. The arab spring was the catalyst that set off push-back by the average guy in the street. That push-back continues today in a growing number of countries.
Quote:Maybe that China thing will kick in by then and you can really get stuck into it.China is only one of many vectors for a crash. Ukraine is on the verge of default. Right now the Europeans are trying to figure out if that would send some banks over the edge. Meanwhile there's a debate brewing over saving an Austrian bank that was (in 1931) responsible for triggering the 30's depression. Everyone is paranoid that all it takes is one spark and the contagion effect gets out of control.
Me I'm sitting on the sidelines with my popcorn watching all the players do their thing and wondering how this is going to play out.
And the ship is still sailing.. You don't think they're gonna give in that easily do you? I can smell the butter burning
sciencesurf
http://sciencesurf.wordpress.com/
Email Me | Phone MeClick my website for the Sunshine Coast Property Blog
Just to burst your bubble once again…
'Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?
Although the study is largely theoretical, a number of other more empirically-focused studies – by KPMG and the UK Government Office of Science for instance – have warned that the convergence of food, water and energy crises could create a 'perfect storm' within about fifteen years.
But these 'business as usual' forecasts could be very conservative.
People will say we're alarmist but as you can see there are some very serious institutions and minds looking at this problem. They aren't doing it to scare people or to advance some hidden agenda. Logic will tell even the simplest mind that exponential growth in a finite world is not possible indefinitely. An economic correction will just be the start.
Pass the popcorn…
Freckle wrote:Just to burst your bubble once again…Great article! I love this stuff. If anything it proves my point that you are jumping the gun.
NASA Article wrote:"In both scenarios, Elite wealth monopolies mean that they are buffered from the most "detrimental effects of the environmental collapse until much later than the Commoners", allowing them to "continue 'business as usual' despite the impending catastrophe.We are far from reaching the critical point of sustainability. If anything I believe our reliance on 'dirty' resources will diminish into the future. We are tracking to become more efficient in our practices,and more reliant on sustainable sources of energy. In terms of solar sustainability China is a world leader.. Yes, we are not there yet but change is being made.
I remember being fed information whilst at school in the early 90's that oil would be depleted in 30 years… Now there's your furfy. Advances in technology, exploration and processing techniques have led to this number to be revised in excess of 100 years.. And then LNC comes along and finds the equivalent of Saudi Arabia in Shale Oil in South Oz.. Lets hope we never need to touch it.
NASA Article wrote:However, the scientists point out that the worst-case scenarios are by no means inevitable, and suggest that appropriate policy and structural changes could avoid collapse, if not pave the way toward a more stable civilisation.Its not too late.. Are you chewing on raw kernels?
sciencesurf
http://sciencesurf.wordpress.com/
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sciencesurf wrote:If anything it proves my point that you are jumping the gun.
Maybe age has its benefits in some respects. I've been watching this thing for 20 years on and off. The optimists point to all sorts of reasons why this scenario won't play out, however none of their solutions are gaining traction and the situation continues to slide in the direction of disaster.
So unless Superman is going to come racing over the horizon sometime soon I'll keep tracking towards prepping for the inevitable.
Quote:We are far from reaching the critical point of sustainability.We passed sustainable when we hit 3 billion.
Quote:If anything I believe our reliance on 'dirty' resources will diminish into the future. We are tracking to become more efficient in our practices,and more reliant on sustainable sources of energy. In terms of solar sustainability China is a world leader.. Yes, we are not there yet but change is being made.
we better start tracking a lot faster then.
Quote:I remember being fed information whilst at school in the early 90's that oil would be depleted in 30 years… Now there's your furfy.Then you weren't listening. Hubbard was predicting peak oil. IE when supply and demand would separate. Discovery rates aren't matching decline rates. Everyone alrteady knows this but cling to the idea that technology and some new super field will be found. problem is there has been no significant new finds for decades now.
Quote:Advances in technology, exploration and processing techniques have led to this number to be revised in excess of 100 years..I thought you were smarter than this. This is pure fiction!!
Quote:And then LNC comes along and finds the equivalent of Saudi Arabia in Shale Oil in South Oz.. Lets hope we never need to touch it.You need to stop reading marketing hype for investors. The field has a theoretical capacity but has not been proven and is an assumption based on a few test wells. Even those show that anything they may find may simply be uneconomic or require more energy to extract than it produces. Shale is the wonder story of the last decade but is fast proving to be an absolute disaster both ecologically socially and financially. Dutch Shell dropped shale because it simply couldn't make it pay.
At current depletion rates US shale could be played out in as little 10 -15 years.
Just a few of the roadblocks: Independent producers will spend $1.50 drilling this year for every dollar they get back. Shale output drops faster than production from conventional methods. It will take 2,500 new wells a year just to sustain output of 1 million barrels a day in North Dakota’s Bakken shale, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency. Iraq could do the same with 60.
Consider Sanchez Energy Corp. The Houston-based company plans to spend as much as $600 million this year, almost double its estimated 2013 revenue, on the Eagle Ford shale formation in south Texas, which along with North Dakota is one of the hotbeds of a drilling frenzy that’s pushed U.S. crude output to the highest in almost 26 years. Its Sante North 1H oil well pumped five times more water than crude, Sanchez Energy said in a Feb. 17 regulatory filing. Shares sank 7 percent.
Quote:Its not too late..It was too late decades ago. People will ignore the risks of collapse in favor of self preservation. It will always happen to the other guy and its some one else's problem is standard MO for dealing with these things.
Freckle wrote:Maybe age has its benefits in some respects.I've been watching this thing for 20 years on and off.Age also brings with it cynicism and over-analysis. Seems like you have been chewing on this for so long its time to spit it out.
Freckle wrote:We passed sustainable when we hit 3 billion.I disagree. Population size is not the deciding factor in terms of sustainability. The term sustainability was unknown to most when this figure was first reached.
We don't all live on disconnected islands and your theory is not applicable. Sustainability is highly dependent on the practices of society and the demand on resources. Yes we are effectively raping and pillaging the Earth and this will continue for some time yet. Unfortunately change is dictated by consumerism and economics and not something that can be forced. Although oil based products are used abundantly in todays world, our future dependence will be dictated by technological advances in renewable technologies, rather than a depletion of non-renewable energy sources.
Depletion of rare Earth metals is another story all together..
freckle wrote:Then you weren't listening. Hubbard was predicting peak oil. IE when supply and demand would separate. Discovery rates aren't matching decline rates. Everyone already knows this but cling to the idea that technology and some new super field will be found. problem is there has been no significant new finds for decades now.Ohh I was listening..This stuff is written in the old science textbooks I still see lying around today. Its amazing to see that transition in common science based knowledge over the years.
freckle wrote:I thought you were smarter than this. This is pure fiction!!This is referenced from the 2013 textbooks written for the Australian curriculum. They state Coal >200 years. However, I take it with a grain of salt and it is really not possible to put an exact figure on it..My point being oil has a long way to go yet. And that is not assuming access to the vast resources that lie in countries where political or geographical constraints lie.
freckle wrote:You need to stop reading marketing hype for investors.haha its not like I invested in them – the share price has gone south indicating a vote of no confidence. The fact test wells indicated higher grade shale means that there is yet another unknown deposit lying wait.
Now on a side note I'm getting my valuation completed next week after 6 months of extensive self renovation on my PPOR. Very rewarding being able to sit back and admire the work done and money saved.. I've decided to get a little inventive for the next purchase… Hopefully I'll no longer have the 'dumb as chips muppet' stereotype laying over my head
The Sunshine Coast market is certainly moving.. If you wanted the big discounts you have missed the boat.
I don't have time to keep up with you! Work is suffering
sciencesurf
http://sciencesurf.wordpress.com/
Email Me | Phone MeClick my website for the Sunshine Coast Property Blog
Quote:Population size is not the deciding factor in terms of sustainability. We don't all live on disconnected islands and your theory is not applicable. Sustainability is highly dependent on the practices of society.Amazing how you you draw these conclusions.
Social practices simply determines how efficiently a resource is utilised. Sustainability implies that the resource renews itself at a rate equal to its depletion rate. Eventually increasing demand on a resource will tip depletion rates ahead or renewal rates.
If population was not the defining factor then following that line of logic implies that a population could grow to infinity if only it's practices could cope with an infinite population. It's patently obvious to the simplest mind that this is mathematically impossible. Population management is the defining factor in all farm management. Best practice might extend your stocking levels but it has its limits.
And so it hits the mainstream media…
Interesting to see the changing demographics up here. Young renters set to jump rapidly in the coming 5 years, with the number of downsizers decreasing. The Sunshine Coast is certainly going to be different place in a decade.
Matsuik does have a few fingers in the pie up here. I wonder how much of this article is written to sell off his developments? The more I play this game the more I see the influence people can have on markets.
Is it wrong that I kinda wish Freckle was still around to watch this play out?
sciencesurf
http://sciencesurf.wordpress.com/
Email Me | Phone MeClick my website for the Sunshine Coast Property Blog
A two tiered Queensland Market. If population numbers are decreasing in the Northern mining towns – where are people going? Interesting to see the migration stats if anyone knows where to find them?
sciencesurf
http://sciencesurf.wordpress.com/
Email Me | Phone MeClick my website for the Sunshine Coast Property Blog
The Sunny Coast is starting to appear more frequently in the mainstream media. According to seasoned investors, once it hits sites like this you’ve either missed the boat or they’re trying to spruik a product that most would not touch..
I have been tracking the progress for 2 years now and things have certainly hit a new beat round these parts. International influences aside, IMO, this area will see sustained mid-level growth for the next 3 years. With construction far from catching up with the years of undersupply, rental yields will continue their merry way upwards.
The winter period normally sees a slight rise in the vacancy rates, however, this trend seems to have disappeared with people continuing to fight for the small amount of stock available. The on-the-ground stories are very promising…
I took a stroll up Pt Cartright this afternoon. I wish the people who paid 1 million for a shitty weatherboard shack in the desert could see the view. Yes, it might seem like my investments are built a little on emotion, but to me having all this is just icing on the cake.
sciencesurf
http://sciencesurf.wordpress.com/
Email Me | Phone MeClick my website for the Sunshine Coast Property Blog
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