Japan (and its Real-Estate market) Rides Again

Looks like Abe's days are numbered. He's on the slippery slope even though his popularity is high the trend seems clear. Reversing that trend would take a small miracle I think.

He was in the low 70's. He's goner. Writings on the wall. When you need teen bands, sumo and FB to get by things are definitely looking sad. I doubt if half his followers are old enough to vote.

Gotta luv yor optimism. And the band played on…..

I'm glad Abe's not a doctor. His medicine is all feel good stuff. Japan is like a patient with a gangrenous leg. You can juice him up and make him feel good but underneath the bandages the rot continues. At some time in the future they'll realise they should have chopped the leg off when they had a chance. Soon they'll be chopping both legs off just to save the patient and then it'll probably be too late. 

CB's have injected trillions into the global economy and what do we have to show for it after 6 years. Zip. Actually less than zip. Global GDP growth is near zero in mature economies, the same in emerging economies and the BRICs (mainly China) who contribute the over 80% of GDP growth are fading fast. 

I have no idea how a debt strapped economy that is losing its competitive edge in almost all respects has any hope of digging itself out of this hole with even more debt in a shrinking global economy. 

Sorry for the delay Ziv. In the last week of packing and loading a container.

Japan's pathway to economic stability has always been to reduce deficits and get its debt down to manageable levels and eventually reduce to a modest percentage of GDP. Japan worked on the premise that it could outgrow its debt in good times. It failed miserably on that score and is now stuck in a situation where the tail wags the dog.

There is no other solution to a debt problem other than to reduce and eliminate debt. Krugman and few other brilliant economists have tried to convince us that debt doesn't matter. The Japanese just need to spend moar, borrow moar and all will be alright. Hasn't worked in 30 years and never will. 

zmagen wrote:

Freckle wrote:

He was in the low 70's. He's goner. Writings on the wall. When you need teen bands, sumo and FB to get by things are definitely looking sad. I doubt if half his followers are old enough to vote.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-23396234

Quote:

…Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has won a majority in the upper house, exit polls suggest.

His Liberal Democratic Party and its junior partner New Komeito were set to get at least 71 of the 121 seats being contested, broadcaster NHK projected.

This would give him control of both houses of parliament for the first time in six years…

Any other graph-adorned predictions we should take note of?

He was always predicted to take the upper house short of some major catastrophe. Once he has total control it will be interesting to see what crazy schemes he and his party will come up with next. Globally the systemic cracks continue unabated. 

Japan's government revenues are 30.56% of GDP while its government spending is 40.35% of GDP. Thus Japan's government runs a surplus of -8.92% of GDP. Net government debt is 126.41% of GDP.

Debt foreva!!  Yep that'll work…

An interesting blog using good, bad and destructive debt as a tool  to understand Japan's past and current fiscal policy with a concise easy to follow description of Japan's predicament and its likely outcome

Japan; from quagmire to Abenomics to collapse! Part I-3

Wolf Richter writes some interesting stuff re Japan. He's considerably more objective and realistic than you Ziv even though he is married to a local girl, has family there and speaks the lingo. 

His Blog at Testosterone Pit  makes for interesting reading.

“Limited Freedom Of Speech” For Japanese Bureaucrats To Cover Up The “Dire Fiscal Condition”

He came out and said what no one in the Japanese power structure is allowed to say. It was outright blasphemy against the new religion of Abenomics that rules the Japanese media and governmental thinking, and even the foreign mainstream media. Abenomics wouldn’t solve Japan’s fiscal and economic problems, he said. And the recent governmental outlook to that effect was way too rosy.

That man is Kazumasa Oguro, formerly Senior Economist at the Ministry of Finance’s Policy Research Institute. He’d joined the MOF in 1997, but apparently, he is a free spirit that didn’t want to be reined in, and so he quit in 2008 and moved on to the Institute for International Policy Studies. He is now an Associate Professor of Economics at the Hosei University and a consulting fellow at the Research Institute of Economy, Trade & Industry.