Brisbane market

I deal with agents, buyers and sellers everyday.  Stuff is selling very quickly in Brisbane at present.

Agents are struggling to get listings, we are seeing a lot of multiple offers for properties that we draft contracts on.

It is a very active market in the sub $800k price range at present.

Whether that translates to growth or not I am not in a position to say.

Uncle Freckle I reckon you should edit your signature to include your key message   That way it shall be seen each time you post

JacM wrote:

Uncle Freckle I reckon you should edit your signature to include your key message   That way it shall be seen each time you post

That'd be no fun Jac's.  I like to sneak up on the muppets and surprise them. A big fancy sig block is like blowing a bugle as you walk through the door.

For investing you should always look at around the medium value in an area. I would not invest in the high end however I would not invest in the low end either.

F: And who else are you masquerading here as? Playing tag with biggaz13 are we??

Not masquerading as anyone, Freckle! You are a harsh audience aren't you?

F: Don't get around much do you. Mid 2012 the vacancy rate in Mandurah were tight. Today the selection is at least 3 times bigger. We have friends that also rent down here and who recently changed properties (2 months ago). Acquired a place within 2 weeks compared to 3 months initially.

An assumption, I take it? I have a number of friends who made the mistake of investing in Mandurah years ago, when the train line extension was but a rumour. They lost, got out, and made a lot more in the Perth market. Those who stayed, lost further. Lessons learnt however so its not the end of the world. I was initially looking in all areas in WA for my next investment but pretty quickly ruled out Mandurah – however I believe itwill ride it out due to the baby boomers retirement/downsizing/coastal living requirements.

F: A simplistic or amateurs view of a market.

No offence taken. Try a happy pill!

You have my apology if I've misjudged you. New members jumping on the bandwagon and making supporting comments in favor of those with little or no credibility and who make silly and superfluous comments throws up the odd red light or two.

I'm still not convinced but I'll give you have the benefit of doubt for the time being.

I rarely make assumptions. The mistake was not investing in Mandurah but where they invested and their reasoning. There are some here (on this forum) who have done well in Mandurah over the last few years.

Again a simplistic view.

Coastal requirements – you just described 90% of Australian towns

downsizing – there's less downsizing than you think. It's a tiny percentage of Mandurah RE

babyboomers retiring – coupled to the downsizing theory.

The GFC and an impending economic recession will likely cause further financial damage to the over 55's. They will not be a sector that helps any area ride out a contraction.

I think you need to study the stats a little closer. Anecdotal evidence is always interesting but its ability to lead one astray can't be underestimated.

http://tinyurl.com/nskltgn

There's a pdf research white paper at the end of that url entitled "The Journey Begins" from the Super Industry.

Some interesting figures

Baby boomers for these stats where born between 1946 – 1965 and are aged between 47 and 66. Half the baby boomer generation is considered to have already retired.

5.5 million baby boomers

48% intend moving

28% to downsize

15% for a sea change and 13% for tree change

So that's roughly 2.7 million x 28% over the next 20 years. Roughly 38,000 per year spread across Australia. WA has about 10.6% of Australia's population (2.3mill) of which about 1.9 mil live in Perth. So 38,000 drops to somewhere around 3500/ yr max who might move and only around 15% 1700 are looking for a sea change.

So your anecdotal evidence that 8 retiring couples moved to Mandurah may well be the total bag.

The problem with this data is that it's trying to predict the future based on intentions. A property market correction could skew the predictions in any direction. Included in the report but not in the above figures are those who will invariable have to still work because they underestimated their retirement needs.

My understanding is that retirees will not materialise in sufficient numbers to influence the Mandurah market in any substantive way.

I have signed a contract on an IP in North Lakes due to it's huge growth drivers. Whilst it's a Stockland master planned community that hasn't seen much CG over the last 10 years due to the land releases, they only have 1000 blocks left now, which is about 2 years worth at their rate of about 500 blocks per year. Complimenting Westfield North Lakes, the massive business infrastructure that's finally about to take place, includes Bunnings, (which is currently being built), Costco's first QLD store, Ikea's second Brisbane store and new cinemas. Hundreds of jobs are coming and with the new rail line due in 2016, North Lakes now has all the ingredients for growth. Vacancy rates have been at 1% and there are several distressed sales on offer where people have lost money, (going by property history), as the market is lower than post GFC when prices where higher. Whilst land values have decreased due to the continued land releases, my DD feels this has good potential and now is a good time to buy when the market is down. Time will tell….

Not sure but there are some great buys around at the moment.