Why Japan is Toast

Very interesting barrel of speculation there, with echos of Bass' presentation from a few months back (and another a month or so ago, I believe, which I was already too tired to watch rehashed again).

Aside from the obvious semi-vendetta in “how dare they outmaneuver the mighty US of A in its currency wars, look what they’re doing to our bond market” gripes, some things immediately spring to mind –

1. “people borrow in yen, then invest elsewhere, where the currency will go up”. Really? I wonder where that might be and how these magical clairvoyants that the world seems to be full of predict that. Utter bollocks, as the last five years have shown time and time again.

2. “I’m a big believer in gold”. No, really? You mean like the rest of the panic mongers that fill her ranks? What a surprise. It’s amazing, isn’t it, how the vast majority of doomsday predictors are somehow invested in precious metals and their derivatives (yourself included, on a smaller scale).

3. “Japan doesn’t like immigrants, therefore they’ll never break out of the ageing population trap”. We already discussed this one to death – Japan’s already performing a major overhaul of its immigration laws, and this is one of the best bullets in their arsenal – make that a few truckloads of magazines’ worth – that they haven’t even slightly began to tap – and believe you me, tap it they will.

4. “We will see money fleeing to the safer countries, like the US…” That’s when I pulled the plug – didn’t wait for the end of it.

Give me a break. And pardon me for not continuing to comment on the other thread, too – your last post in that one was so full of speculation and so completely blind to the slight possibility that what happens in the rest of the world may have some effect on your crystalballing, that I didn’t even know how to start addrsesing it.

. I'm well aware of how carry trade works, thanks. The lady specifically mentioned "other places, where the currency will go up" – not "other investment vehicles in other countries". She has zero possibility of predicting this, except in the very short term perhaps.

Never said that – all I said was that you, like most precious metal traders, have everything to gain when the world panics about anything under the sun – a claim that you're trying to (not so effectively) dodge and drives all of your posts on this forum – not just the Japan related ones. Who's misdirecting and using straw man arguments again?

"The few miserable jobs on offer", in the worlds third largest economy with 4.1% unemployment? Are we talking about the same country, or are you completely lost in your own rambling, apocalyptic mind???

I beg to differ, I actually think immigration and equality in the workplace are two of the most significant discussions Japan should be (and is) having in the coming months and years – and that process has already started. Yes, the aversion to foreign intervention in "the old ways" of Japan runs deep – but so has the aversion to increased sales tax, to dropping nuclear reactors, and even to Abe himself. Things change, even in Japan.

No, it's not, and no amount of shouting will make it so, regardless of who it is shouting it and from which rooftop (particularly when it's shouted by hedge fund opportunists and gold dealers – the people that benefit the most from mongering panic after positioning themselves to benefit from its effects). Furthermore, the term "collapse" is vague, misleading, emotional, and has no measurable effect or result. Every economy has ups and downs, every economy is affected by others around and further from it, and every economy promises opportunities for those who are appropriately hedged and positioned. You're like the kid in the front cart of the roller coaster train, shrieking "we're all gonna die!" at every drop. All of us are aware of what's happening in our respective economies, as well as the ones we're invested in, whether they're the same, or not, or both cases. The only difference is, you're trying to convince everyone that each of these ascents or descents spells fire and brimstone and doom to everyone involved. It doesn't – only to the ones who invest in the hope of a quick buck and in a single investment vehicle. Again, the vast majority of the people on this forum aren't, so your screams are a tad wasted.

Yes, that's what she'd like everyone watching to believe, I realise that. On the other hand, she could be wrong, and he could be doing exactly what's needed to put Japan back on the fast track to growth. The reality, as usual, is somewhere in between – no matter what extremists like you want the public to buy.

This is getting tiresome, Freckle, particularly since we've had the exact same discussion in length several months ago.

with your permission, I'll leave you with the following excerpt from "The Independent" which sums up both sides of the argument – because really, we're just rehashing the same old tunes, and i think we both agree there won't be a resolution here –

Note how even the staunchest resistance to Abe's policies agree that women in the workforce and immigration reform are key? (I know, you believe a significant rehaul of Japan's attitude towards foreigners is impossible – I don't, however. I've seen the Japanese embrace far more radical trends in the past). And we haven't even touched upon renewable energy in this discussion, a field which Japan is poised to lead the world in these next few decades, nor on service and household robotics, a field which is currently in its infancy, being led by Japan, and predicted to grow by 300% in the next five years, not least due to Japan's very own ageing population problem. As for gold – don't be ridiculous, please. I wasn't referring to anyone hedging their portfolios with gold, as many of us do – but to those, like yourself, to your own testimony, who firmly believe its a "safe haven" against all currency woes and make it a major pillar of their investment strategy. These kind of people profit directly from panic, and you know this as well as I do – you just don't want people to notice, because it drives a spoke in your logic and the reasons for which you apply it. I'll leave you with it, seriously, unless you have something (really) new to say for a change. I'm getting a very annoying feeling of déjà vu here…(https://www.propertyinvesting.com/forums/overseas-deals/4346966)

Yo Freckle are you saying we should place some bets on how far the Nikkei will fall and make some cash from it that way?