Unemployment is rising steadily in VIC – Very Interesting!!! It looks like Victoria is going to face new challenges in 2013,

Sold an aircraft engine to a guy over that way who builds horse stables. 2 years work ahead of him. Go figure.

How did you come to own an aircraft engine??

Interesting…

The latest figures on population are growth for Vic by 95000 people over the next year. (No sorry too busy to quote where from, use Google friends) and 350-400k population growth for OZ. Vic has the largest amount out of all the states. Might be a turn around coming?

Supposedly Vic has also been in recession already for 9 mths (can't remember where that is from, it's not working for me today!) It's a tough gig, but you have to admit some tradies are flat out coz they are good, and some are slow coz they are not so good. Also I think it depends on your network as word of mouth can bring in a lot of jobs.

Nice photo Freckle.

D

There are signs that the property markets are improving again in Victoria. I believe that 2013 will be a good year for investment and 2014 will be even better

If you could find some fundamentals to support the uplift then fine but they are sadly lacking so that leaves sentiment which is often fleeting. It's a market more suited to flippers and developers if you can get from wo to go in under 18 months. I'm wary of markets supported by sentiment, They tend to fall faster than they rise.

The stars appear to be aligning for another round of GFC madness but on a much grander scale this time. I don't see us being as lucky as we were the last time. 

For me I see Japan as our worst nightmare. Japan provides a huge amount of financing and liquidity in to SE Asian emerging economies. They along with China and S Korea soak up 48% of our exports. Japan's currency moves are a direct move against S Korea and Taiwan competitors so they're forced to join the currency war to stay in touch. That's making our exports in Yen and Won look extremely expensive. China's a whole other story but things are going from bad to worse there at the moment. 

Vic is a manufacturing export lead economy for the most part so it's likely to cop the worst of the BS going on globally. Couple that with a decade of over building especially in units and I'm struggling to see Vic as an opportunity at this point in time. 

BDI's taken a pasting over the last few years that's for sure. Germans have been bailing out some of their banks heavily into shipping. Shipping lines going bust left right and center. The big consumer binge is over I'm afraid. Now it remains to be seen how they mitigate all the debt overhang.

I think busy is an overstatement. The vast majority are struggling. The payment question is a good point. The domino affect can be extremely damaging. Like ripples in a pond.

The successful businesses tend to be those that have been around a while, have strong balance sheets, have developed extensive networks but more importantly have strong relationships that underpin workflow. Networks provide opportunity or exposure to business activity. Balance sheets enable a stronger competitive position and relationships usually mean preferential treatment.

To a point. When you have major economic resets 99% feel some negative effect. The difference is those who have enough assets to survive with something to rebuild with. It becomes less about opportunity and more about harboring wealth to take advantage of opportunities after a correction.

The 'band wagon' or 'gold rush' affect. Everyone wants to get on. It's less about effort and more about greed as a motivator.

This is where circumstance filters the better players/performers. It's like an endurance race. You soon see who are the stronger more capable players