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  • Profile photo of Big JohnBig John
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    @big-john
    Join Date: 2013
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    I have been aimlessly trolling the net for free and useful reports on the US housing market. Not opinions, not blogs or articles written by spruikers or journalists, reliable reports.

    Anyone found anything useful and credible?

    I'll kick it off with two, I found:

    http://www.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/ULI-Documents/Emerging-Trends-in-Real-Estate-US-2013.pdf (although it contains an aggregate of opinions in many parts.

    http://www.uli.org/research/centers-initiatives/center-for-capital-markets/barometers-forecast-and-data/uli-real-estate-metrostats/summary/ – this is a bit better

    http://www.citydata.com – this is fantastic.

    Regards

    Big John

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
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    From your first link.  Just a few salient points.  Fairly accurate I thought.

    • Systemic global economic turmoil, hobbled credit markets, and government deficits, meanwhile, will continue to restrain anxious industry leaders who downplay chances for a faster-tracked upturn amid uncertainty. Investors discouraged about stratospherically priced core properties in gateway markets inevitably will “chase yield,” stepping up activity in secondary markets and acquiring more commodity assets. These players will need to focus prudently on current income–producing investments and avoid the surfeit of properties edging toward obsolescence, especially certain suburban office parks and some half-empty second- or third-tier shopping centers. Most areas can sustain little if any new commercial construction, given relatively lackluster tenant demand and the generally weak employment outlook. Only the multifamily housing sector continues to offer solid development opportunities,

      although interviewees grow more concerned about potential overbuilding in markets with low barriers to entry—probably occurring by 2014 or 2015.

    • The real estate capital markets maintain a turtle’s pace for resolving legacy-loan problems as the wave of maturing commercial mortgages gains

      force over the next three years.

    • Low interest rates have bailed out lenders and underwater borrowers, but interviewees warn against complacency and recommend preparation for eventual rate increases.

    • more intergenerational sharing of housing occurs to pool resources among children (seeking employment), their parents (reduced wages and benefits), and grandparents (limited pensions and savings).

    • Emerging Trends respondents continue to favor apartments over

      all other sectors, although pricing has probably peaked and rent growth will subside in markets with an upsurge in multifamily development activity.

    • Core real estate seems overpriced: plowing money into top properties at sub-5 percent cap rates looks unproductive, especially if and when interest rates “inevitably” go up. “It’s not the smartest thing to do” and “could get ugly out there,” except for buyers and long-term holders of the best properties in the best locations.

    • Traders always get in trouble when they price real estate “as a commodity.” And that is the ongoing issue for today’s chastened buyers: too much product looks no better than that— commodity

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    Big John wrote:

    http://www.citydata.com – this is fantastic.

    ????   Page lists the domain for sale

    Profile photo of Big JohnBig John
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    @big-john
    Join Date: 2013
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    Sorry about that – typo – http://www.city-data.com/

    Big John

    Profile photo of Big JohnBig John
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    @big-john
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    Hi Freckle

    I appreciate you sharing your thoughts.

    "Traders always get in trouble when they price real estate “as a commodity.” And that is the ongoing issue for today’s chastened buyers: too much product looks no better than that— commodity"

    Can you explain this a little more please?

    Re interest rates – they have to go up in the US at some stage. However, the interest rates for borrowing for foreigners is currently very high. My strategy is to finance over 30 years, with the first 5 years fixed and refinance in 6 to 12 months when credit markets have loosened further.

    Regards

    Big John

    Profile photo of Nigel KibelNigel Kibel
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    @nigel-kibel
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    Thanks Big John

    I think information is very important however you success or failure to a large degree will depend on who you are working with in the United States. Thats where you need to focus your due diligence.

    Nigel Kibel | Property Know How
    http://propertyknowhow.com.au
    Email Me | Phone Me

    We have just launched a new website join our membership today

    Profile photo of Big JohnBig John
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    Totally agree. I'm a believer in both. You need to be informed to ensure that the advise you receive is consistent with the data.

    Regards

    Big John

    Profile photo of Big JohnBig John
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    May seem obvious source of data, but, this has some great stats on employment trends.

    http://www.bls.gov/lau/home.htm

    Jobs create people inflows which drive demand for housing. The beauty of this resources is that has trend data which is very useful for narrowing down areas to invest.

    Big John

    Profile photo of Big JohnBig John
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