Newcomb – Ex-Commission Homes vs. Private Home OR Hastings!

Hi All,

I recently bought a house at Hastings after reading about the Port Hastings project (been working overseas for almost 6 yrs and first year living in Victoria, hence, a bit behind with all the latest developments etc.). 

I would like to continue investing but am thinking if I should buy a second property at Hastings or invest at Newcomb considering the government is injecting $5B in infrastructure development. So, my first question is – a second investment property at Hastings or diversify geographically and invest at Newcomb?

Secondly, after inspecting a few properties at Newcomb today, I can get a 6.2% return on an ex-commission home and 5.4% on a private house. The private house has a larger land size by approximately 180sqm but is also $60K more expensive. By land area, the private house is cheaper; however, I am worried that there won't be much capital gain on the private house as the price is higher than the median price for that area. I guess my questions relating to Newcomb are:

1. Percentage wise, would the private house has better capital gain in the future (say 20 years) compared to the ex-commissioned home?

2. As the private house is being sold above the area median price, is there a risk of the property depreciating in cost in 20 years?

My partner is from Germany and he keeps worrying me about the 'bubble' bursting for Australia as we were not much affected by the GFC and the day will come for Australia like in the US where property prices have plummeted tremendously. What's everyone's thought on this? At the least, I can hold my investment properties for a minimum of 10 years.

Thanks for you advice!