All websites are predicting recovery from now onwards .. what are you thoughts
The Residential Property Prospects, 2012 to 2015 report from economic forecaster BIS Shrapnel says New South Wales and the resource-rich states of Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory are already showing signs of recovery
Yes I have been seeing some of these articles as well. I guess that they are only articles and they in themselves wont make the market rise. I have always been in it for the long game and I would like to think that growth will return at long last.
****US economy heading (officially but it’s already there) into recession
****US economy heads towards fiscal cliff in coming months
****Europe worsening by the day, peripheral EU countries in a depression
****Libor scandal set to bring some banks down along with defaults in Europe
****Germany on rating watch
****China slowing faster than thought
****Australian unemployment rate under pressure as job growth falls
****Resources pricing down 30% this year and still falling
****BHP and RIO have already indicated that their expansion projects are under review.
****200 construction companies went bust in NSW in the past year
Given the current situation I would have to say that anyone who comes out and positively spins future property market conditions is either lieing, delusional, or being paid to spruik the market for self serving reasons.
The last 4 paras of that media release where straight from the realms of fantasy.
BOO YAA ! !
I don't think that there is any future for the stock market with current legal system and soon a lot of people will redraw their supper (you can see the signs of more and more posts about SMSF).
They will be investing in property as a safe haven for their money which will increase the demand = increase the housing price = more redraw from super = crash of the stock market = major drop in housing price as it happened before.I see fractals my friend:
As we are getting closer and closer to the core, the spacing between the repeat of sequences will be reduced.
It is the reverse sequence of how you made your portfolio, first started small, then bigger and bigger steps.The core is not the end. The core is the start of a new era
I keep answering with roughly the same answer.
You have inflationary pressure that is building up like a shaken champagne bottle.
Now you have visible outlets for that.
Wheat and Corn both up heaps (they are blaming the poor weather but thats not enough)
As a result .. the local farmers are raising the prices of eggs by 50 cents. (anything that is made with eggs goes up)Petrol now at over 1.40 (what .. you dont think that has an ongoing effect?)
Supermarket prices moving up. Not small amounts either. Try getting a soft drink 1 lt under a buck now. Its getting a lot harder.The question is more .. how does inflationary pressure without wage growth and ease of access to bank funds allow for movement in housing and land prices? Because banks are tighter than ever on making deals and wage growth is stagnant.
So now we have an interesting ongoing mix.
Time will tell.
xdrew wrote:You have inflationary pressure that is building up like a shaken champagne bottle.You have to be more specific Xdrew. There is also deflationary pressure on the other side (assets) It also depends on which economy and what part of it your talking about about.
I don’t think there’s any real consensus (international analysts) as to whether we (globally and locally) will be hit by inflation, deflation, stagflation or hyperinflation. Food is notoriously volatile depending on supply and demand. The Indians go ballistic if there’s a shortage of onions or the price spikes. Food prices were supposedly the catalyst for the Arab Spring.
If anything I see the reaction to food prices as a barometer for how much pressure the general man in the street is under.
But here’s the opposite to food. I recently moved down to Mandurah from Port Hedland. We literally outfitted a house from scratch. What surprised me was the willingness of the major outlets to negotiate. I was able to easily get an additional 10 – 15% off of already discounted items. My guess is that this illustrates how stressed the retail side of the economy is and that if anything we’re seeing deflation in non consumables like household items.
Majority of the views expressed over here are pretty pessimistic and i can see the reasons why which make sense, but sometimes the battle is won by the person who sees things differently. I am not saying i am that person.
But what makes me think the property valuations can rise and the sector will pick up is a couple of simple factors like
Increase in population due to increase in migrant intake will always result in shortage of houses and accommodation
Construction Industry not getting proper financial support due to strict lending by banks to the construction industry ( resulting in less projects finishing on due dates and taking longer , with also projects not getting off the ground)
Pricing for houses fairly low comparatively with a year ago with rents going up, bringing that price to sweet point for investors and a sour point for First home owners who would rather buy now ..giving the market some push
The unemployment rate is really down
think ..think…..
Nooob wrote:They will be investing in property as a safe haven for their money which will increase the demand = increase the housing price = more redraw from super = crash of the stock market = major drop in housing price as it happened before.That an interesting cycle there Nooob. So you are saying that house prices will rise, equities will fall and then fall to such an extent that house prices will also come tumbling down ?
Yes Bardon
The good news is that if you invest in the right property, even if you lose money in equity short term or long term, you'll still be fine.Also I believe that inflation will get worse as government can see that people are becoming cash hoarders, inflation is the government's weapon to push them to invest.
This will artificially increase demand for small cheap properties.You can see the signs of it here in this forum. Most questions are revolving around $200k properties.
Robert Kiyosaki said 2016…
Lets get ready and plan aheadNo problems with the long term bit in housing whatsoever but I thought in your cycle you were saying that after equities crash so will housing, no?
For me its simple, residential housing will always be the store of our nations wealth, we are getting wealthier and the money supply will always increase.
As for inflation, I too am an Inflationista and am patiently waiting for all this new money to eventually find its way into the system and erode my debt level and repayments and pump up my asset values and rent.
What did Kiyosaki say about 2016?
Does Robert kiyosaki know about the Australian market ?
i just finished reading his book Rich dad ..poor dad ..Loved it !! but i would be taking his australian market advice with a pinch of salt !!I can not comment for Oz recovery in general, however there are certain pockets in Perth that are showing signs of recovery.
As an investor Its looking very attractive with rents rising fast and interest rates dropping.Then again I am not chasing growth but adding value and I just love buying properties at $320-350K which I can develop, retain property and build at the rear. There is certainly competition out there but no way near what it was like 7 years ago fortunately.
Cheers WI
ECB money supply ramping rhetoric way up on the back of the Guvnors comments yesterday.
jeromejf wrote:Majority of the views expressed over here are pretty pessimistic and i can see the reasons why which make sense, but sometimes the battle is won by the person who sees things differently. I am not saying i am that person. But what makes me think the property valuations can rise and the sector will pick up is a couple of simple factors like Increase in population due to increase in migrant intake will always result in shortage of houses and accommodation Construction Industry not getting proper financial support due to strict lending by banks to the construction industry ( resulting in less projects finishing on due dates and taking longer , with also projects not getting off the ground) Pricing for houses fairly low comparatively with a year ago with rents going up, bringing that price to sweet point for investors and a sour point for First home owners who would rather buy now ..giving the market some push The unemployment rate is really down think ..think…..I am investor with number of properties. I also invest in other hard assets
How I see it:
Population growth is a good thing on long term scale. Short term it may have no impact what so ever. Think USA market today. Imigrants coming, pricing still crashing down, especially low end.
Construction Industry is slowing down, less houses build. But awful lot of apartments are been build NOW in Brisbane. Prices getting hammered including rents. How I know? My tenants moving out from house and going to live in freshly build apartment they purchased fairly cheap (fire sale).
The market may become tight, but after it will balance itself out first. Will take years to do that.Rents going up? I have 10 tenants, rent was up by 2.5% this year. I estimated 1.5% rise next year.
I rent houses in 5 to15km away from City. Vacancy % is also up comparing to last 10 years.My experience do not flow well with your comment. Anyone else feel the same or it's just me?
I know that 99% of people here in this forum are pro properties and they would challenge this; but I think the foundation of oz economy is corporations.
government will do whatever it can maintain the affordability of house price but there is no such controls required for corporate shares.
I’m buying till it all crashes and then I buy more.Have you compaired your asset growth against any other type of investment to see how well you performed ?
Nooob wrote:I know that 99% of people here in this forum are pro properties and they would challenge this; but I think the foundation of oz economy is corporations.Foundation of all economies is small business.
Nooob wrote:government will do whatever it can maintain the affordability of house priceWhenever governments interfere in markets they invariably create bubbles and distort market fundamentals . Property affordability is at its lowest in modern history so I have no idea how you draw the these conclusions.
Noob, I would agree with you. Businesses, especially manufacturing sector is muscle and a bone of any sustainable economy. But, strangely enough, government drive more and more businesses to outsource. To many regulations, to expensive to comply. So much easier to arrange for “call centre” in India than to hire small army of employees in Australia.
I have compared business vs gold/silver vs property investment.
I found:
Business is best, very high return on low investment (15-50% yearly). But consume your time. Time input directly proportional return.
Gold/Silver and Property consume little time. But move in cycles, so ideally you would jump from one to next every cycle to gain value (speculation). If you fail to do so, all you get is just inflation adjusted return (over the long therm 30-50 years). One can consider it as your personal INFLATION ADJUSTED savings account outside banking system.This is my experience, other people would have different view. Probably depends on how you do it and what is the aim of the game.
simple wrote:…One can consider it as your personal INFLATION ADJUSTED savings account outside banking system…I couldn't have said it any better.
I'm reading this book "Motivated money: You've invested well? Compared to what?" which I strongly recommend (I'll finish it by tomorrow).
What it said is; gold, silver and property are all forms of inflation resistance savings not wealth growth machine.
Look around, all property gurus have some sort of business to make money, then theyinvest(save) the outcome in property.
Robert Kiyosaki, Michael Yardney, Margaret Lomas and every other examples we have are physically working in a business to make money and then (invest) save it in property.I'm not saying it is bad or good, it is by far much smarter than what I've been doing all my life.
All I'm asking is; with the same amount of risk can we do better?I don't have an answer yet
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