A bit early for the exaggerated rejoicing in some of the local papers to my taste, but still good news. On the downside, locals in Fukui pref. have voted to restart their 2 reactors, giving the green light to what's probably going to be a wave of follow-suiters. Local government is still trying to give the utilities a hard time in the actual implementation…
Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
http://www.nippontradings.com
Email Me | Phone MeZiv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property
Just a mirage Ziv.
I always look at these things in context with what’s happening globally and it just doesn’t tally. Japan’s export markets are in one hell of mess and sinking fast. A few reactors going online won’t be nearly enough. It’ll be interesting to see how the others fair after inspections and maintenance are complete.
I expect to see industry continue to migrate offshore because of long term energy uncertainty. Along with it’s huge debt energy security will remain Japans’ biggest headache for the next two decades. Going long Japans’ aging population will ensure a growing drag on growth (estimated at 1% of GDP annually).
Japans’ electronics industry will struggle for some time I think. Much of what they produce is about what people want as opposed to what the need. As the world deleverages things can only get tougher for Japan. If there was a way out you’d think they would have found after 3 decades of massive credit growth but Japan with actually little growth over that time.
http://www.jeita.or.jp/english/stat/pdf/20111215.pdf
Domestic production by the Japanese electronics industry in 2011 is estimated to drop
10% from the 2010 result, to ¥13.8 trillion, the first year-on-year decrease in two years.
Although tremendous efforts were made to restore supply chains and production lost after
the Great East Japan Earthquake, the continuing high yen and economic sluggishness in
many overseas markets impacted exports from Japan. In 2012, domestic production by the
industries is expected to remain flat at ¥13.7 trillion, as the operating environment for
Japanese manufacturers remains severe.The contraction in money supply is scary.
As usual, we're in agreement on the grand picture, it's just that I have a bit more faith in the Japanese. Call me a romantic if you will, but I think there's something in 'em that's been through alot more, and with spectacular results, than this particular tsunami, as big as it may be. They do things their own way there, but their own way, while alien to many other philosophies, tends to work for them, and is very far from the detached, uncorrelated approach to the rest of the world that many seem to think they have
Freckle wrote:…energy security will remain Japans' biggest headache for the next two decades. Going long Japans' aging population will ensure a growing drag on growth (estimated at 1% of GDP annually)…I doubt it'll be much of a headache, all those reactors and probably a score more will pop back up in no time. As you mentioned, one can only hope maintenance and regulations will be (a tad) tighter this time around. The ageing population, again, may just turn out to be a thing of the past, as laxer immigration laws are currently being considered for the first time in decades. While this may bring a score of other problems, which may hit Japan alot harder, being as isolated culture-wise as they are, when those migrants start pouring in in search of the new promised "streets paved with gold" – but that's a whole different set of worries.
…electronics…will struggle for some time I think. Much of what they produce is about what people want as opposed to what the need.Here, too, I see a brighter future. There have been some serious heads rolling in some serious companies in those sectors in the last two years, and the GFC seems to be working wonders on survival of the fittest in that respect – what I do think will happen very soon is that some of the biggest names in electronics will become very different beasts, disappearing altogether in some cases, merging in others, and re-emerging in completely new frontiers in yet other cases. Reading the latest headlines for Sony, Hitachi and Panasonic (not to mention Mitsubishi and their affiliates with their space industry insanity ventures) to mention but a few, paints that picture with perfect and fascinating clarity – it's already started.
Time will tell…like I said, not a reason for rejoicing, but not entirely a mirage either – I think reality is something a bit more balanced than both of these views.
As for the rest, we've already chewed it over in that last thread
Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
http://www.nippontradings.com
Email Me | Phone MeZiv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property
I have been in Japan for a few weeks now and first lived here in 1990. Prices in generaly have not risen since 1990 and some things have gotten cheaper. There is a problem with deflation and widespread economic pessimisim. I don't see things improving in the near future. Not the place to be investing in I think.
Terryw | Structuring Lawyers Pty Ltd / Loan Structuring Pty Ltd
http://www.Structuring.com.au
Email MeLawyer, Mortgage Broker and Tax Advisor (Sydney based but advising Aust wide) http://www.Structuring.com.au
Terryw wrote:Not the place to be investing in I think.Def not for cap gain, for hassle free cash flow, though, it can’t be beat. Or at least, I’ve yet to see how. All of these links are long term speculation and, as much fun as they are to discuss, they’re certainly not the reason to invest- at best they’d be the icing on the cake (that is, if I’m right and you’re wrong)
Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
http://www.nippontradings.com
Email Me | Phone MeZiv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property
Videographic for Japan. Nicely summarises the problems Japan faces.
Rebalancing the Economy: Japan
http://www.economist.com/multimedia?bclid=1154831493001&bctid=1250962214001
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