Now that is funny
As a owner of many guns and ammo, we have stock piles that the gov doesn't even comprehend. It's a basic right we have always maintained to keep our freedom from tyranny and oppression of the inflated gov. Not supposed to have a hollow points, or automatic weapons but it hasn't stopped me
There are a lot of issues here, if welfare and medicare are dropped it will be my tenants in the hood who will riot. Obama passed a law to where our own military can be used upon our own people. I'll have to dig it up, i'm on my mobile and just can't look up or type as much as if i was at my computer. I got a feeling this thread will go a while.
Freckle; I could write a near book on response, but the essence in relation to this subject is that most of these guys are buying property (as Jay has said) for cash.
None of the smart money here is doing anything other than hedging (though few with the space or ability to grow the size of hedge Jay has managed) so you are preaching to the converted in most cases.
I still don’t think you are quite getting the ‘cash’ component of this market. On the one hand you are quoting billions of loans and on the other saying millions of houses in foreclosure. I get the point but buying houses for cash is non derivative – by definition.
Localising the unfinished global finance issue (agreed yet to be played out) to the US, I argue that a ‘normal’ response to massive amounts of cash being sent to banks would be inflationary. The banks paid the Fed back. I don’t like the reasons they did it, but did it they did:) In this case the Fed -wanted- inflation, but the money did not get into the system where it was wanted. Hence QE.
It is a highly complex arrangement US debt and there are as many economists/financial historians as there are opinions. The US can support itself (if you reduce the crippling social security/health care payouts) easily with the aid of China. China is as desperate for the US to consume as the US consumer is. China is also still buying Greek bonds I understand for much the same reasons. It has no domestic consumer market to feed its economy so it needs exports. Exports come at a cost….
All this gets away from the point of this discussion. CASH is being paid for homes. There are no loans on this stuff, excluding a few hard money guys and Aussie LOC’s etc. Buy in a good area with guaranteed tenant and you cannot get a safer investment from a GFC point of view. In fact I would suggest that almost everyone here is buying this stuff _because_ of their desire to hedge. To argue a worse scenario than has already been played out in the US is to argue social breakdown. If that happens we get Kyler with his hollow points and head up to the big hedge at Jay’s:)
Laws I understand your cash arguement in terms of no risk of forclosure however that’s only one part of the risk equation. The risk in the US market is from currency devaluation and nothing illustrates that better than the following graphic.
Gold is a static form of value for the most part. An oz today will by say 10 apples. In 20 years it will still only buy 10 apples. If we translate that into FIAT currency the 10 apples today may cost $1 but in 10 years they’ll cost $3.
In the last 5 years the US$ has lost around 60% of its purchasing power. Show me an investment that can keep pace with that kind devaluation and I’m all ears.
Foreign investors chasing US assets just don’t get it I’m afraid. They can’t get out of the US$ FIAT box.
This wouldn’t be so bad if there was fiscal policy to constrain US$ value loss but unfortunately that’s an actual goal of Fed and US Govt policy. The strategy is to try and inflate their debt down to manageable levels and hopefully the economy will kick back into life and growth will then solve the debt problem. The problem is that when you look at all the things constraining the US economy you soon come to realise that that is just a pipe dream promoted by desperate politicians chasing another term in office.
The only thing saving a total collapse of the US$ is that virtually every major central bank in the world is doing the exact same thing its just that the US is slightly more aggressive and is currently front running the pack. That however is causing major problems for economies like Australia whose dollar isn’t appreciating in real terms but currencies around it are devaluing. This kind of crazy race to the bottom through currency debasement distorts the FX market and generates endless problems for comparatively healthy economies.
China’s problem isn’t US consumption but shifting its economy from primarily export orientated to a more internal consumerist model. China has significant structural and debt problems to contend with and isn’t as healthy as many think. Growth is slowing and if China is to successfully restructure its economy into a more sustainable model it has to get growth down to around 3-5%. That’s a big problem for us but another story.
China isn’t buying Greek bonds Only the ECB will touch anything the smaller PIIGS need. China and Russia are slowly divesting themselves of US dollars held in the foreign reserve accounts though. They need to get out of US $$ to preserve their value.
Buy in a good area with guaranteed tenant
Short term I have no problem with that but on a cyclical basis a good area/good tenant today may be a broke tenant in a bad area tomorrow. My gut feeling is that renters may be more vulnerable than usual if another serious downturn eventuates. That could see rental areas take a serious socio economic hit. How that turns out is anyones guess.
There’s endless opportunities in these times but they’re much riskier than most think. There’s a lot of angles to cover and the last thing you want to happen is to get blind sided by some unexpected or supposedly benign event
I don’t think you guys are doing to much wrong apart from a few weaknesses in strategic thinking and maybe a little complacency on certain issues. If anyone’s capable of surviving in these times I think you guys probably have most bases covered.
The Freckle
kylermrice wrote:As a owner of many guns and ammo, we have stock piles that the gov doesn't even comprehend.I think that gubermint of yours probably knows how much you’ve got and where you hide it.
It's a basic right we have always maintained to keep our freedom from tyranny and oppression of the inflated gov.
How’s that working out
Not supposed to have a hollow points, or automatic weapons but it hasn't stopped me
You realise now that your on 300 databases and the boys in black suits will be calling on you. I think you should run for it
There are a lot of issues here, if welfare and medicare are dropped it will be my tenants in the hood who will riot.
Time to tool up and get bad to the bone! You could turn your hoods in to real time arcade games
Obama passed a law to where our own military can be used upon our own people.
Seen that. Not to worry. The US army couldn’t keep 20 million rag heads from revolting what chance against 300 mil civilians each with 6 guns under the bed
I'll have to dig it up, i'm on my mobile and just can't look up or type as much as if i was at my computer.
Have the big screen HTC but I hate texting on phones full stop. I bought it to watch pornos on the go
The Freckle
I think that gubermint of yours probably knows how much you've got and where you hide it.
Lol, this isn't OZ (don't know about you Kiwis) everybody has guns here and it's not that big a deal. We can't even stop the violence in the hoods, govs not really worried about tax paying citizens. You forget we pretty much love them, i would say guns are better investments than gold. I have made a good trade out of buying and selling them over the years.
How's that working out
Good….
People seem to forget we are militaristic by nature, fought for freedom and we haven't stopped fighting. What don't we have our noses in. You grow up a part of the States and it's like second nature.
You realise now that your on 300 databases and the boys in black suits will be calling on you. I think you should run for it
You kill me brother, u really can't be that paranoid. As much as "Big Brother" is watching us with the whole 9/11. Which for all we know is a government scam. Just like those weapons of mass destruction (shakes and head) I don't know how you are from New Zealand, everybody is laid back and care free there.
Time to tool up and get bad to the bone! You could turn your hoods in to real time arcade games
The Imagination u have
You do know we have riots in the States, no biggie.
Seen that. Not to worry. The US army couldn't keep 20 million rag heads from revolting what chance against 300 mil civilians each with 6 guns under the bed
Amen
Have the big screen HTC but I hate texting on phones full stop. I bought it to watch pornos on the go
I like HTC myself and have a EVO 3D and 7inch tablet i have linked up with my Sense UI, not a fan of typing emails on the phone. but the tablets isn't bad other than getting around on pages sometimes, there still working the kinks out i guess.
lol, the big screen HTC…. to watch porno on the go…. hahaha what a riot.
U kill me Freckle. Just like the time that lady bombed your thread and you called her out on it. just to dang funny
Bravo you two, very good! admin better give you guys some gold stars for that!
kylermrice wrote:U kill me Freckle. Just like the time that lady bombed your thread and you called her out on it. just to dang funnyMy tolerance level for idiots and lack of manners is diminishing with age. As is eye sight, memory and penile function.
The Freckle
Met a group of US DOD engineers in Tokyo a few months ago, just flew in from Israel military industries to push the Fxxx current sale to Japan, drinking sake in Ginza. Business is booming, they said.
Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
http://www.nippontradings.com
Email Me | Phone MeZiv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property
OK Freckle, enough:
‘……China’s problem isn’t US consumption but shifting its economy from primarily export orientated to a more internal consumerist model. China has significant structural and debt problems to contend with and isn’t as healthy as many think. Growth is slowing and if China is to successfully restructure its economy into a more sustainable model it has to get growth down to around 3-5%. That’s a big problem for us but another story……’
I do not believe China is all that healthy at all – I would argue that anyone here is safer (not racing around NW WA and/or buying silver shares) than you have portrayed yourself to be.
The point in the paragraph above is exactly what I/we have pointed out. I have appreciated your input, but in real terms you are simply now requoting the gist of many other arguments and they are irrelevant to the discussion on this thread. We are here BECAUSE we basically agree with you – and we aren’t buying silver. Or selling it – as you should be:)
‘…shifting its economy from primarily export orientated to a more internal consumerist model. China has significant structural and debt problems to contend with and isn’t as healthy as many think. Growth is slowing and if China is to successfully restructure its economy into a more sustainable model it has to get growth down to around 3-5%…’
That’s hardly news, Chinese officials have been touting this line, word per word, in the last six months. It hardly had any effect on world trading when they came out with it officially last month. On the other hand, it’s greatly strengthening its capitalistic ties with the west (notice the un-characteristic grace with which they bowed out of the Syria debate), so I think the “problem” will be nicely offset by vigorously expanding on new ties and initiative. Certainly, from our perspective, there are just the same, if not more, Chinese investors buying into Japanese realty, so that line hasn’t filtered down to the middle-masses.
Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
http://www.nippontradings.com
Email Me | Phone MeZiv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property
lawsjs wrote:We are here BECAUSE we basically agree with you – and we aren’t buying silver. Or selling it – as you should be:)Oh come on Laws can’t you just disagree a little bit. You’re taking all the fun out of this thread.
The Freckle
PS I’ve bought another $15k of silver shares (little miner in QLD) over the last 2 weeks.kylermrice wrote:As a owner of many guns and ammo, we have stock piles that the gov doesn't even comprehend.Kyler.. is that you in there dude…??
The Freckle
Freckle wrote:Boy I’m glad you cleared that up. Here’s me thinking QE is inflationary and devalues the printers currency.Silly me.
The Freckle
Freckle have a look at this video
http://pro.stansberryresearch.com/1202ENDOFAMR/PPSIN513/Steve
pc9geek wrote:Freckle have a look at this videoSteve
I’ve seen a few like these. Seems like a mandatory promo production these days for investment houses. I agree with the underlying theory but I think the conclusions are extreme to say the least. Then again the political instability from an economy going over a cliff is not more self evident than Greece.
I’ve seen persuasive counter arguments to the $US reserve currency debate. At the moment I don’t see any plausible interloper for a global reserve currency at this point. I think it could take decades before such a thing happens if ever.
I don’t really see Arab Spring type revolts against govt either, at least not something that would truly destabilise a govt like the US. Some LA style riots maybe but it’s still a democratic country and while that persists we’ll see more radical politicians and maybe elections will see more ethically balanced citizens stand for office… who knows.
I think things will go snap fairly quickly but the rebuild could (probably will) takes decades. I doubt I’ll be around to see the result.
I see the next decade as the precursor to a watershed moment in human history. We have a confluence of global factors colliding at the same time, Financial, demographic (populations – growing and aging), environmental and energy. As a species we’re transitioning through some extremely tough challenges and if the GFC is anything to go by I don’t like our chances
Only thing that would destablize or send riots and social anarchy through the US is to cut off aid programs.
No EBT cards.
No section 8
elimate all the other welfare programs.
Close the hospitals if your not a US citizen tough luck,,, Just like when I went to a hospital in Canada… they woud see me but I had to let them charge 5k on my credit card. Not many farm working Mexicans are going to have that kind of warewhithal,, but you walk into any emergency room on the west coast and your insurance is all paid up… you take a number and get behind the illegals that cant and will never pay. they get the exact same treatment as I do an american citizen paying who knows in taxs and full bore medical insurance… I think we need a special line
Same happens in the African american community by and large,,, If you run credit on your tenants 95% if they are not on company insurance have none and use the emergancy room as day to day doctor… And will have all sorts of charge offs on their credit.
So yes Frekle,,,,, take the EBT card…. Sec 8… rent…… refuse service at hospital like canada… and you would see some major anarchy,
Just think back to those news feeds during the Karina hurricane,,, there was plenty of warning yet the people in N. Oreleans did not leave as they should have,,,, then it was total lawlessness… over 4,000 murders during that week.. And big signs ( hey fema were are you)… these people expect the government to solve all their problems from housing schooling to feeding them and then medicating them…..
Normally I would not be for socialized medicine but in our case I just do not think we have choice we need to get these people on something B/C it would save us huge amounts of money,,,,, they can have one form like a canadian form ( which is very poor compared to US standards) but its basic and you by and large won't die… but keep our better plans for the working class that wants and can afford insurance… I pay 900 a month for 2….. full choice doctor,,, no waiting for any procedures… I had a bad chest exray that my doc wanted checked out on a ct scan… not an emergency but the type of thing that gets you nervous… by the end of the next day I was in and out of the hospital with the procedure done and will have results tomorrow.
That would never happen in Canada it could take months to get the same service if they deem it a non emergency… Having had my home up in BC for years I have a lot of close Canadian friends so I hear the real stories. but there is no finer place on earth in july and august sitting on those mountain lakes casting to rising Kamloops trout… Just love it….. I know NZ has some great fising but I can be there in 2 hours in my personal plane so it makes it fun exciting and just a great spot on the earth.
Just do not want to get sick there.
JLH
JLH
jayhinrichs wrote:.. I had a bad chest exray that my doc wanted checked out on a ct scan… not an emergency but the type of thing that gets you nervous… by the end of the next day I was in and out of the hospital with the procedure done and will have results tomorrow.It’s the age group we’re in mate!! I’ve got a few bits that aren’t working as well as they should but the old girl still thinks I’m a legend. Thank God for pills
Hey had a heart attack 3 years ago. Didn’t even know I was having one. I thought I had food poisoning or something. Started off with an ache between the shoulder blades that morphed into a full blown ache from jaw to my gut. I was lucky. It was early morning (6.30am) when it started. I was scheduled for a site induction in town at one of the big miners. I’m usually 100’s of km’s out in the bush. BY the time I realised I was crook I was on my last legs. Managed to get myself around to emergency at the hospital a block away. By the time I got there I was vomiting, had the sweats and was struggling to stay upright.
They knew straight away what was up and fortunately I got this ancient old South African guy who nailed it (type of heart attack) and had me stabilised 30 min’s after pumping drugs into me. By 11am I was on a Royal Flying Doctor flight down to Perth. 3pm I was all tucked up in Royal Perth Hospital with a drop dead gorgeous Doc
Next morning they did an angiogram followed by an angioplasty (2 stents). 3rd day they kicked me out. Service was tops. They flew the old girl down and put her up in a hotel, gave her taxi chits to get around and did the same thing for both of us to fly back home.
That’s my 4th stay in Aussy hospitals, meningitis, 2 food poisonings and a heart attack. Has never cost me a cent and I have to say the service and care couldn’t be faulted.
Jay I see your a bit of flyer… I play around with microlights
glad your still with us to share your thoughts…
jayhinrichs wrote:.. will have results tomorrow.All well I trust?
Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
http://www.nippontradings.com
Email Me | Phone MeZiv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property
Lol, he is feisty enough to be on the forums. Freckle is a tough ole bitty!
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