- Freckle wrote:worldinvestor wrote:I will do what I always do and will chase the cycles, the next to move will be Sydney, we are not too far off and I will be loading up.
Freckle, I am only interested in what is happening on the ground, not interested in analysing this stuff it has been done to death.
WI
Those who are selling will be relieved to hear you're in the market to 'load up'. The Freckle
Hey All
I have kind of stayed away from the forum board last two weeks. Been crazy with clients in town and Yes I actually go see all our houses but enjoy this line work.
All this information is great for some one who is information buff. Maybe I am just a plain simple person. True story I buy and sell homes quite a good business.I do this with out every putting on a suit and barely wear shoes.Ask Jay if you don't believe me.I hope some of you Aussies are not offended when you see my video's of the homes we are redoing.
So don't be offended if you see Tatoos and bare foot guy walking around in this homes. Yes that is me simple person.
Now back to the real estate LawsJS Your post of abit back of dealing with one guy who knows his market that does not doe 100 homes a month .Some thing like that is very good and makes more sense to me today then ever before.
WI you are correct all this information come on really do we need it .I can do this for some thing totally different like wall street can pull horror stats and stats that will make me jump in. Media is the biggest sales tool in the USA come on Buffet saying single family homes are great buy.How many guys here selling homes jumped and put that article on their web site.Great sales pitch though.
Here is what I can say for Charlotte NC and surrounding 60 mile radius for homes . I am buying homes weekly , rehabbing and renting. Some weeks more deals then others. I speak to people wanting to rent weekly others looking for work. So instead of all the information from the super smart guys. I am for sure not one of them simple simple simple . I can say USA economy is not coming back any time soon . American middle class are hurting and renters will be here for a long time. Lower income people will take another hit with higher gas price or seniors on fixed income ( please no Iran war USA can not afford it). The ones like me ,Jay and ,WI Emma , sorry know their more but tired brain syndrome .Are seeing opportunity and will cash in on it.
Jay ( I know you are out their I realize you and my real estate partner are more alike each day ) bigger and bigger projects and numbers. For me I like 15 to 25 homes every 60 to 90 days. The way I see it is buying that amount , getting them fixed , getting them rented ( please stop buying vacant homes folks )unless you ar know your whole sale team very well . Different situation then. To me true turn key rented rehabbed and cash flowing and then adding to portfolio. I see to many basing this on numbers and numbers. I also make a good living at this and slowly rebuilding my portfolio based on a few deals at a time.
Again just rambling just want you guys to see this real estate situation we are in from a simple mans perspective who is out their every day getting dirty and on the job .Not a from a desk and information junky that is not actually doing what I do. Not saying you don't freckly just saying I do . I don't sit behind a desk ( well I do when I get back to the office most evening ) most of my time is crawling under homes or looking at new homes. Meeting renters , talking to contractors and inspectors, handy men, realtors , new investors, new wholesalers, basically any one who is involved in real estate.
And I do this wearing blue jeans and black t shirts mon- fri. Hope you all find my humor along with my simplicity
Alex, forgive me for raining on your parade but lets put you and your business in perspective.
You and your partner are long time RE agents with skin in the game so to speak. You run a fairly significant sized business, 2 principles, 10 staff (including property management) and various subcontractors. As a not so small agency you’re doing 1 – 6 properties per week. A pretty average turnover for a business of your size.
Your business doesn’t translate into anything meaningful for the punters on this forum. Comparing RE agencies to investors is chalk and cheese.
The risks I see for punters here investing in the US is self interested spruikers like yourself pumping a market as if its a dead cert to make an easy buck. The way you describe your easy going relaxed approach suggests a certain level of easiness for want of a better word. The language I see here from interested parties suggest a certain level of naivety. They’re dead keen to get over there make their fortunes but most just haven’t thought it through nor fully understand the risks.
Your the guy selling shovels during the gold rush.
Yeah mate there’s gold everywhere just dig. By the way shovels are $1000.
The Freckle
Freckle wrote:Alex, forgive me for raining on your parade but lets put you and your business in perspective. It is not raining actually nice out today. Storms passed right by…You and your partner are long time RE agents with skin in the game so to speak.Not an real estate agent took the test but never got my license. I just happen to have a solid system that attracts clients.
You run a fairly significant sized business, 2 principles, 10 staff (including property management) and various subcontractors. As a not so small agency you're doing 1 – 6 properties per week. A pretty average turnover for a business of your size. Yes we do okay and great staff.
Your business doesn't translate into anything meaningful for the punters on this forum. Comparing RE agencies to investors is chalk and cheese. Well since I am investor full time, dabble in wall street and real estate , as well as a couple other businesses not related to real estate. I would say I am the perfect person to ask advice for.Since it is working for me and my clients alike…But do like cheese with my wine..if you don't mind
The risks I see for punters here investing in the US is self interested spruikers like yourself pumping a market as if its a dead cert to make an easy buck. My days start at 430 am as most on here met me know and end most nights by 10pm. Not a easy day any where in there. Spruiking love it , we call it educating but no offense I should not be teaching some one as smart as you.
The way you describe your easy going relaxed approach suggests a certain level of easiness for want of a better word No some great people in society well American society were very simple people . The language I see here from interested parties suggest a certain level of naivety. They're dead keen to get over there make their fortunes but most just haven't thought it through nor fully understand the risks. If you would take the time and open your eyes before you mouth you would see I preach some of what you mention already. That I would not buy with out coming here ,and then I would be very hesitant even then. Again who am I to judge ignorance is ignorance no matter what country you are from.
Your the guy selling shovels during the gold rush. Yeah mate there's gold everywhere just dig. By the way shovels are $1000. Been buying an selling real estate from $10k to $5m for quite some time in this day an age I think we call them experts in the field. If I was to have brain surgery would I go to the new doctor or the one who has been doing this for years and years and is successful. Him go see if you can find that in your stats. Yes I go nice restaurants with my wife because I hear and see they have good food.So if some one mentions the good food are they spruiking me , or saying some thing is good and worked for them. Again food for thought but it is funny.You seem to be clashing with quite a few people on here. Hmmmmmm
Sincerely
Bravo Alex SC !!!!
* Thunderous Applause *
Dont worry .. Freckle is an expert. He's also someone who titles me a snob without reading my posts. And goes on about a doomsday without actually riding to evidence on it. Even if you examine his graph it extrapolates a short term movement onto a long term US schedule. Which is like saying by training a stallion you are guaranteed a Phar Lap. Its a non sequiteur.
And wait for it .. he's RICH ! Cos he said so. And thats worth listening to.
As Henry Ford said in cross-examination about his sanity .. WHY DO I NEED TO BE AN EXPERT .. I HAVE PEOPLE AROUND ME WHO I CAN ASK FOR AN EXPERT OPINION.
In other words .. there will be people who will take the majority of opinions and decisions by 'experts' on here and make their own fully qualified opinions to go forward. They shouldnt rely on a single opinion. Accumulated factual evidence provides a degree of truth regardless who it comes from.
As I said before .. I wont debate Freckle .. he knows too much.
Alex wrote:Well since I am investor full time, dabble in wall street and real estate , as well as a couple other businesses not related to real estate. I would say I am the perfect person to ask advice for.If you have no pecuniary stake and the advice is objective I agree, however, that’s not the case is it?
Alex wrote:My days start at 430 am as most on here met me know and end most nights by 10pm. Not a easy day any where in there. Spruiking love it , we call it educating but no offense I should not be teaching some one as smart as you.Wasn’t suggesting you think its easy for yourself. The point being made was that you make it look easy for the punters coming into the market.
Alex wrote:No some great people in society well American society were very simple peopleAre we speaking the same language.? The reference I made is not about ‘people’, being simple but the ‘task’
Alex wrote:If you would take the time and open your eyes before you mouth you would see I preach some of what you mention already.That statement wasn’t about you but about the punters heading your way, who from a variety of sources, (including yours) draw inaccurate conclusions. I don’t have a problem with what you say but the way you say it. Your business dress code implies a somewhat easy going relaxed approach which I suspect is attractive to those wishing to emulate you.
Alex wrote:Been buying an selling real estate from $10k to $5m for quite some time in this day an age I think we call them experts in the field. If I was to have brain surgery would I go to the new doctor or the one who has been doing this for years and years and is successful. Him go see if you can find that in your stats. Yes I go nice restaurants with my wife because I hear and see they have good food.So if some one mentions the good food are they spruiking me , or saying some thing is good and worked for them.Recommendations come from one of two sources, objective, someone who has no connection to the product or service but who’s experience is the basis for that recommendation and subjective, one who has a personal interest/stake in promoting their product /service. As far as experience goes that is no measure of capability or surety of the outcome.
Alex wrote:You seem to be clashing with quite a few people on here. HmmmmmmSometimes. I’m the other side of the coin, the contrarian view point. My post are not always what they want to hear. I make some here work for their money and that irks some of them but the PM’s and emails asking for more info or a different perspective suggest many lurkers here find my posts interesting and informative.
My intent is not to stir trouble but to challenge conventional thinking, add colour to the debate/discussion and increase the readers depth of knowledge. Many here are blissfully ignorant and need a guiding hand of different persuasions to get their heads around investing.
The Freckle
Xdrew wrote:Even if you examine his graph it extrapolates a short term movement onto a long term US schedule. Which is like saying by training a stallion you are guaranteed a Phar Lap. Its a non sequiteur.ROFL
Interesting conclusion. Lets make a comparison as you are our resident graphing expert. I seem to recall you making a prediction that the QLD market for 2012 should see an improvement even though over the previous 2 yrs there was a definite down trend but offered no explanation for this other than there had been a slight up tick and you felt a lot of people were sitting on the fence.
I rest my case.
Xdrew I don’t have a problem with you nor do I think you’re a snob. I just think your arguments are rather weak at times.
The Freckle
I follow up with asking.
Where did you come across this exciting bit of informational recall?
I have placed two posts about Queensland. Both were about the Gold Coast and its relevant troubles. None were about Queensland as a whole. I dont look at Queensland as a speculative market outside of the areas i am already aware of and concentrate on. I dont like taking on a bigger boat of expectations than I can deal with.
The post you may be referring to?
Following up from that post .. I did purchase in Kedron .. I have built a couple of townhouses and refurbed 4 Brick Veneers since we last spoke. In troubled times I still made good money on all my deals (the townhouses are rented out now .. not being sold) and managed to enjoy a quality result.
I have about 270+ posts. Feel free to guide me to that vital section where i would have spoken about the Queensland market in 2012. I have spoken twice about the Gold Coast and its ongoing troubles .. because thats an area i actually know something about. Talked about the opportunity that lay ahead after the QLD flooding for people who were prepared to invest there. And there was, lots of it. And I did invest there.
Now to follow up with an actual answer to the forecast for QLD in general? I dont believe that QLD will recover in the near term until the situations overseas clear up. Brisbane and the Gold Coast are highly reliant on the tourist dollar and foreign investment for the way its currently set up. It doesnt mean that both situations cant change. As of 2012 they are geared to markets that thanks to a high dollar .. the tourism market is drying up. Normally any city dependant on singular industries or flow-on from these industries suffers in tougher market conditions. So in short .. a change of dependancies is required to straighten these two towns out.
Again .. it doesnt mean that there isnt good deals still to be found and had in QLD. You just have to know where and what you are dealing with and how to realise its maximum potential.
xdrew wrote:I follow up with asking.Where did you come across this exciting bit of informational recall?
You have my apology. It seems I have you mixed up with Andrew_A. A lazy response on my part before checking my facts.
I generally find your comment intelligent, articulate and informative. In fact given your professional background I consider you one of the more informed and skilled PI’s here.
Where we differ is how we see the future and interpret current events. The vast majority of PI enthusiasts here don’t even come close to your level of experience or skill. My focus is to ensure that the less able at least get one contrarian view of substance to balance out the heavily pro nature of these forums. At the very least I hope my posts stimulate others to think and learn more broadly other than to patch a simple investment portfolio together.
The Freckle
PS: I find your challenges stimulating intellectually. Keep it up
Backpedal – To distance oneself from an earlier claim or statement; back off from an idea.xdrew wrote:And goes on about a doomsday without actually riding to evidence on it. Even if you examine his graph it extrapolates a short term movement onto a long term US schedule.Regarding doomsday. During the Great Depression the US saw unemployment grow to 25%. Shadow Stats more accurately defines US unemployment at 23% (and climbing) and property prices have slumped 2% more than the during the depression. That’s not the real worry. The real worry is that it’s still sliding with no end in sight. A doomsday scenario if ever I saw one. But hey America’s not even in recession!!
The Euro zone has been struggling to contain the affects post the 2007/8 GFC. After 3 years of supposed progress the EU now has more debt, less growth, higher unemployment and contracting economies. Still no solution in sight and I see Spain now heading for exponential growth in unemployment (currently 24%+) not to mention Portugal, Greece and a host of other small countries in the Euro region.
I was chatting the other day to a guy up here about demountables coming in from China. His boss had recently been there to organise something to do with their construction. He recounted how at the factory (there were 8 by this company) there were queues of over a 1000 people waiting at the gate for a job. If you failed to turn up for work for any reason the first guy in the queue got yours. China’s economy is slowing at rate no one predicted (or didn’t want to) except for Chanos who along with a few others has a big short on China. Chanos I take for a pretty savy kinda guy especially when he’s invested heavily putting boots and ears on the ground there to understand what’s really going on. I’ll back Chanos and the others shorting China any day over the rubbish being published about how China will save the world. It’s in a far bigger hole than many can imagine.
So yeah, I kinda have a doomsday outlook on things but I’m not looking through rose coloured glasses and kidding myself all is well in the world simply to stay positive at all costs.
Xdrew wrote:Even if you examine his graph it extrapolates a short term movement onto a long term US schedule. Which is like saying by training a stallion you are guaranteed a Phar Lap. Its a non sequiteur.I’ll assume we’re talking about this one
relevant comment was I think;
“It will be interesting to see how the AU markets tracks over this year.”
How that translates into a non sequiteur. beats me. Maybe I’m as dumb as a chook.
xdrew wrote:he knows too much.You’ve been talking to my wife
The Freckle
Those who are selling will be relieved to hear you're in the market to 'load up'
Freckle
You bet, that's exactly what I did when GFC hit, loaded up in Melb, all the cr@p areas 10-15 km from Melb, where the developers were jumping in, put the DAs together and sold off prior to slow down.
Worked a treat. When others are listening to the noise I look at what is happening on the ground. Not too interested in all these charts, stats etc. they don't make money, as I said before most stats are rubbery at best.
WI
KnoxOff wrote:
Backpedal – To distance oneself from an earlier claim or statement; back off from an idea.ROFL
and to distinguish it from poly’s who do backflips
One needs to be multi skilled. You never know when they could come in handy
The Freckle
worldinvestor wrote:Those who are selling will be relieved to hear you're in the market to 'load up'Freckle
You bet, that's exactly what I did when GFC hit, loaded up in Melb, all the cr@p areas 10-15 km from Melb, where the developers were jumping in, put the DAs together and sold off prior to slow down.Worked a treat. When others are listening to the noise I look at what is happening on the ground. Not too interested in all these charts, stats etc. they don't make money, as I said before most stats are rubbery at best.
WI
I think you’ll find this a completely different can of worms. You did ok because it was pure luck not because you understood what was going on. Punts like that are always 50/50. In fact all investment bets are 50/50. You could look at an investment, toss a coin and you would probably have little difference in potential outcomes. The trouble with 50/50 betting is that statistically you never get ahead in the long run because statistically you will win as many as you loose.
While investing is always a gamble of sorts the informed investor is trying to make their wins bigger than their losses over the long run even though their win loss ratio may be evens.
The next GFC will have completely different characteristics to the last one. I think you may find that ignoring relevant information around you is a precarious way to invest.
The Freckle
Freckle wrote:lawsjs wrote:Lack of supply controls prices, so IMHO a crash is highly unlikely. Slow growth – sure, but crash – near impossible.Lack of supply???
According to RP Data:
The number of newly advertised properties for sale continued to increase last week however, we are seeing fewer new listings enter the market compared with the same period last year (3.3% lower nationally and 9.1% lower across the capital cities). RP Data is currently tracking 300,994 properties for sale across the country and 143,254 properties across the capital cities. Throughout Australia, total listings are currently 27.7% higher than they were at the same time last year and 25.5% higher across the capital cities. With fewer new listings being added to the market and some stock being absorbed, the total number of homes now advertised for sale is -7.5% below the record highs of last year nationally and -11.7% below their peaks across the capital cities.
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/02/rp-data-homes-for-sale-leith-van-onselen/This graph shows how unsold property stocks are rising. They’re approaching 2008 levels.
lawsjs wrote:Slow growth – sure, but crash – near impossibleThe graph below illustrates how housing markets have tracked once over their peaks. Interesting to note we are currently tracking the US. The UK and NZ markets had initially steeper declines and levelled out faster. It will be interesting to see how the AU markets tracks over this year.
The Freckle
Couple of things from above. Meant to be studying so this assumes more importance than it should.
Firstly I don’t see AlexSC as making out the US is easy – quite the reverse in fact. And he knows what he is doing as far as I can tell. Your comments regarding the laxity of grammar and niceties of the English language are probably better directed to the US education system than Alex. One of my pet areas of humorous US/English anecdotes (Where in the world would we be without spelling or grammar? – Why America of course!) but that in no way suggests the writer is in any way ignorant. Having proof read (and indeed read) agents writings from around the world for years I would say that quite possibly one of the least important skills an agent/rehabber would have is English boarding school literary etiquette:) Whilst not as bad as the US, one thing amazes me in the UK is how poor many of the RE ads actually are from a grammar/spelling point of view. If you can’t write it correctly when you grew up in the UK and sell £10-30m properties for a living in W1 then what hope does a hard working guy from NY/SC have???
Secondly, your graphs etc above seem to show you have little understanding of my post and probably less of the US market in general. A problem a lot of foreigners have with the US is understanding volume. Vast volume. Development is far more laissez-faire in the US than Oz, indeed almost anywhere I can think of. In Australia we have a severely controlled/limited amount of development allowed – when compared to the US in particular. Our developers build hundreds at most, US developers do thousands at a time – each! Which is exactly why the US has such huge boom/bust cycles – S&L and later Sub Prime. I don’t think many Australians really appreciate exactly how controlled we are as a society, but particularly in real estate development the controls are many and varied. This is exactly why Australians looking at the US market should treat buying there with all the respect and care that playing with a nest of Death Adders would involve – it is not as cuddly and ‘nice’ as our little market at home….
I think you'll find this a completely different can of worms. You did ok because it was pure luck not because you understood what was going on. Punts like that are always 50/50. In fact all investment bets are 50/50. You could look at an investment, toss a coin and you would probably have little difference in potential outcomes. The trouble with 50/50 betting is that statistically you never get ahead in the long run because statistically you will win as many as you loose.
While investing is always a gamble of sorts the informed investor is trying to make their wins bigger than their losses over the long run even though their win loss ratio may be evens
Freckle
That's what they all said then….. funny that.
Gotta love it…. thanks for the tip, I am pretty sure I know what an investor needs to do.
….its absolute luck, give me a break, I have been investing for over 12 years, retired 5 years ago from my property investments, I call it passion and commitment and sticking my neck out when I see an opportunity.I don't waste time analysing charts/stats to death I'll leave that to the aspiring economics lecturer.. or whatever. I find markets that are suitable to either flip, build house and land packages, DAs, buy and holds.
WI
lawsjs wrote:Development is far more laissez-faire in the US than Oz,You’re kidding right???
The US housing market is one of the most manipulated in the world with probably the exception of China. Have you not heard of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the Federal governments ham fisted attempts to resuscitate the housing market coupled with the Fed Res manipulative monetary policies.
The Poly’s and their corrupt banker mates have their finger prints on every layer of the housing market. Australia is the same.
The Freckle
Nup. Not kidding. Your comments above do nothing than highlight the disparity twixt the two.
Without wishing to sound arrogant I believe I have far more understanding of the issues to comment than you.
Jay – Having fun yet??
xdrew wrote:Bravo Alex SC !!!!* Thunderous Applause *
Dont worry .. Freckle is an expert. He's also someone who titles me a snob without reading my posts. And goes on about a doomsday without actually riding to evidence on it. Even if you examine his graph it extrapolates a short term movement onto a long term US schedule. Which is like saying by training a stallion you are guaranteed a Phar Lap. Its a non sequiteur.
And wait for it .. he's RICH ! Cos he said so. And thats worth listening to.
As Henry Ford said in cross-examination about his sanity .. WHY DO I NEED TO BE AN EXPERT .. I HAVE PEOPLE AROUND ME WHO I CAN ASK FOR AN EXPERT OPINION.
In other words .. there will be people who will take the majority of opinions and decisions by 'experts' on here and make their own fully qualified opinions to go forward. They shouldnt rely on a single opinion. Accumulated factual evidence provides a degree of truth regardless who it comes from.
As I said before .. I wont debate Freckle .. he knows too much.
Me either LOL but thanks for the support …It is simple to read through the genius type.
Well off to work in the garden time to get things going here weather here in the SC starting to warm up. So here come spring.
Sorry freckle I don't have a chart to show the amount of tomatoes, versus the amount of cucumbers, I will grow with the amount of mulch versus soil…
worldinvestor wrote:I think you'll find this a completely different can of worms. You did ok because it was pure luck not because you understood what was going on. Punts like that are always 50/50. In fact all investment bets are 50/50. You could look at an investment, toss a coin and you would probably have little difference in potential outcomes. The trouble with 50/50 betting is that statistically you never get ahead in the long run because statistically you will win as many as you loose.
While investing is always a gamble of sorts the informed investor is trying to make their wins bigger than their losses over the long run even though their win loss ratio may be evens
Freckle
That's what they all said then….. funny that.
Gotta love it…. thanks for the tip, I am pretty sure I know what an investor needs to do.
….its absolute luck, give me a break, I have been investing for over 12 years, retired 5 years ago from my property investments, I call it passion and commitment and sticking my neck out when I see an opportunity.I don't waste time analysing charts/stats to death I'll leave that to the aspiring economics lecturer.. or whatever. I find markets that are suitable to either flip, build house and land packages, DAs, buy and holds.
WI
That is awesome I am just hoping you make a stop in Charlotte when you come to Atlanta ( margaritas are just as good here as they are in Atlanta )
Paullie wrote:This morning my suspicions were solidified.There's a war coming, war means spending.
On the subject of "skilled" immigirants, the only reason thats happening is because big business want cheap alternatives, and they are cheap for a reason.
Well since he has failed at most things he said he would do as president . He will be fighting for re election perfect time to say how we are going to not take this from Iran . We as a USA nation can not afford another war…
You must be logged in to reply to this topic. If you don't have an account, you can register here.
