This first link
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/01/comparing-house-price-declines-again/
gives what I think is the most realistic and objective reasoning I’ve seen on how the property decline is likely to unfold.
The second link
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/01/rp-data-qld-leads-unsold-homes/
well it just sucks if your in Qld or Vic.
Turning to the Stock on Market first, you can see that the number of homes for sale nationally is up by 35% on the same period last year, with Victoria leading the way (up 70%). Note also Queensland’s stock levels, which are the highest in the nation at 81,199 or 28% of the national total:
The Freckle
Freckle wrote:well it just sucks if your in Qld or Vic.LOL I'm soooo afraid!
Go on, post up MORE bad news!
fWord wrote:Go on, post up MORE bad news!Takes a fair bit before you guys see the writing on the wall.
What would be more interesting here though would be things like how to manage a portfolio in a down turn, what strategies are most likely to succeed going forward, what will the PI market look like over the next 10 years and so on.
Trouble is most just don’t want to admit the world is round not flat.
The Freckle
Freckle wrote:What would be more interesting here though would be things like how to manage a portfolio in a down turn, what strategies are most likely to succeed going forward, what will the PI market look like over the next 10 years and so on.Exactly. THIS I agree with you. Posting something of this nature will surely be more productive.
Instead people focus on JUST posting bad news.
There was an article in The Age yesterday which covered precisely some of these points. Of course, even material in the media has to be interpreted with caution. Media is a reflection of public sentiment, which is itself a product of 95% of the population, not the 5% who think differently and hence get different results.
Freckle wrote:What would be more interesting here though would be things like how to manage a portfolio in a down turn, what strategies are most likely to succeed going forward, what will the PI market look like over the next 10 years and so on.I was thinking that as I was reading the Feb issue of Y.I.P, as it seems a lot of their 'Investors of the Year' contenders and the almost monthly cover stories of everyday folk going from broke to property millionaires have made their money over the last ten years with many properties doubling in value, high yields etc. I was wondering what their success rate would be like if they were only starting their portfolio's now…
As I'll be starting my own foray into the property investing world this year, It will take a lot longer for myself and others in the same position to build up a portfolio that provides decent CG and/or a nice yield given the current uncertainties. I believe the old 'buy, reno and hold' strategy will work well in any environment and hope it does the job for me. Of course there's still plenty of opportunities to take advantage of too such as the increased number of distressed properties available (up 20% on last year apparently).
I do wonder what API and YIP magazines will be running as cover stories in a few years. Maybe something along the lines of "Read about Mr X and how he achieved 5% CG in 4 years"?!
fWord wrote:Instead people focus on JUST posting bad news.It’s just news fWord. These forums have no balance because many think you have to be the super positive ra ra type to get along here. If you don’t ignore the negatives and accentuate the positives then your perceived as being too weak to succeed.
Yin Yang, black white, up down, negative positive, good bad. These things do not work without their opposites.
Forums like these remind me of gamblers. You only hear about the wins. Nobody’s willing to admit their losses. Gamblers always rationalise their habit. PI’s are similar. Property always goes up especially the one’s THEY buy.
The Freckle
Freckle wrote:These forums have no balance because many think you have to be the super positive ra ra type to get along here.Well there IS a balance. The moderator has allowed virtually all rational posts to still exist at these forums, whether they say the property market is stuffed and gonna crash or if it's gonna boom.
Freckle wrote:Yin Yang, black white, up down, negative positive, good bad. These things do not work without their opposites.So you DO agree that there is such a thing as bad news and there is good news. It ain't 'just news'. Anyway, it isn't wrong to post good or bad news. But when such news seems ONLY posted to create either hype or panic…that's just incorrect.
Freckle wrote:Property always goes up especially the one's THEY buy.Oh I don't know. Maybe they're smart. Or maybe they're just LUCKY! Look, in life, regardless of what the endeavour is, people are afraid to admit failure but they are more than happy to sensationalise their success. You and I would do the same. It isn't unique to the world of property investing…or gambling. Most people have had this drummed into their little craniums since day one: you shall not fail! There are also punishments for failure and reward for success, which compounds the issue.
Anyway, that's too philosophical. Over to you, my friend.
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