Mildura vs Bendigo

here mate this website will be your best friend along with somersoft forums

http://www.sqmresearch.com.au/graph_vacancy.php?postcode=ballarat&t=1

im looking at ballarat myself

Every where has them – but these are the areas you would either not buy in, exercise caution when buying in, or do a lot more due diligence. Not to say that there are not some really nice people & places living out that way.
That said, you need to pick your place & or street. FOr example Eaglehawk has some really good areas, and some magnificent period property – but also some ferals. In some suburbs, prices appear cheaper, but while yields may be ok, values will increase much slower, and places will be on the market longer.

As for the other comment on Horsham, I find that interesting. I have a place there, and recently asked the RE to give me a 'market appraisal' based on their frequent offers to do so, and in three and a half years, the growth would equate to less than 7% gross – meaning if I sold now, I would lose a few grand over what I paid for the place once costs and fees etc were taken out.

All the best with what you decide. Unless you are in some position  (as well as gifted & lucky) where buying at bargain basement prices and renovating and doing a quick sell is doable,  make sure you look medium to long term.

Cheers.

Have 2 properties in Mildura, look for something on the west side of deakin highway. rental market is tight. rented my 1st house in 1 week had 4 applicants to choose from. just renovating 2nd shouldnt take long to rent out.

Hi there Brendon,

glad to hear you are thinking of investing in Bendigo or Mildura…
I am very familiar with Bendigo.  Our vacancy rates are very low so if you have a property to rent out…. if it is good quality, good position etc… it is normally quite easy to rent out.  The prices in Bendigo are gradually going up… probably due to us considered closer to Melb. since the calder highway improvements…. It's 110 k/h for a good portion of the journey from Bendigo to Melb….. – makes the trip quite fast. – Vline train to Melb. is good too…  I know of some people who actually live in Bendigo and commute to melb. each day….

For around $230 (you may have to go higher or consider an older place) you wont get too much but do look in places  that are near the uni. shoppings centres etc…., public transport…

hope this helps,

Peter.

  The  plans to expand the airport are a good sign for Mildura, the surrounding areas such as Merbein and Irymple have had excellent growth in the last year, like 24%.    230k in Bendigo may only buy you an old  high maintanaince house with  miimal depreciaton plus you will have to pay stamp duty.  Depending on your taxable,   income but for less than230k if you go direct to a  builder or developer, and cut out stamp duty and agents commission and get the building write off allowance ( which is on going every year) and  a depreciation schedule, which mean 4000k tax back from the tax man  every year , which you  probably wont get on a 230k house in Bendigo.   Also with a new house you can be a bit more choosey with tenannts .   I have never had  a vacancy in Mildura always had tennants wating to move in. Touch wood as I have a vacancy coming up in 2 weeks.       You should take on englo comments about West side, it may be true to a small extent but personally  I thnk it is just hype by the snobs wholive there trying to keep up their values.  The areas that seem to be booming at the momment is the southern end near Irymple  where most of the retailers are locating.   The northern area near the river is hyped up and suppsed to be best once again I think it may be mostly hype.      Just something to think about   Bendigo  may well be a very good investment I am just concerned that it maybe at the top of its cycle has it has haf some good growth overlast couple of years.     It is possible get an older house and get gross yeilds up to  10% in mildura, that may give some small net + cashflow if income is critical that may help with the purchase of a house in Bendigo. Or with a new house that is neutral after tax you still maybe able to buy in bendigo.

I’m assuming all you guys have read this

http://www.mildura.vic.gov.au/Files/Expert_Witness_Statement_-_Mr_Justin_Malkiewicz_Macroplan_Aust.pdf

It’s a comprehensive overview of the last decade to 2011.

Worth noting is Mildura’s vulnerability to high unemployment in times of economic and climate stress. Mildura’s dependency on its agricultural economy is also worth consideration. Much of it’s second tier businesses rely on a sound farming sector to survive.

Globally food demand is rising but access to sufficient water rights is hampering Mildura’s ability to thrive especially in drought/low rainfall years. Drought, the GFC and proposed toxic waste dump brought pop growth to a screeching halt around 2007.

Current threats are a high dollar affecting primary producer exports which isn’t likely to ease any time soon and the current global financial situation. There’s a growing consensus that Australia’s 2 speed economy is set to deteriorate over the next year. By how much and when a recovery might occur are up for debate. The current global outlook isn’t good and that doesn’t bode well for any rural economy that is predominantly export orientated.

More bad news I’m afraid…

source: http://www.htw.com.au/Downloads/Files/223-Month-In-Review-June-2011.pdf

Regional Vic
MILDuRA
The establishment of a sand mining industry in the
Mildura region during the past five years has been a
handy fill-up for the local economy, with the traditional
winegrape and dried vine fruit industries languishing for
much of the last 10 years.
Despite the benefits of the sand mining activity, anecdotal
evidence suggests retail spending is subdued. There are
a higher than normal number of vacant shops in Mildura’s
main shopping mall and generally low confidence levels
among retailers. Builders are reporting low enquiry levels
for new homes, and this inevitably flows through to retail
businesses that supply furniture and associated items.
Concerns about higher fuel and electricity prices,
combined with an expectation that interest rates could
rise is also felt to be contributing to consumers being
cautious with regards to discretionary spending.
….there are a higher than normal number
of vacant shops in Mildura’s main shopping
mall and generally low confidence levels
among retailers….
Retail food and alcohol expenditure appears to hold its
own, irrespective of weak economic conditions, and
there is likelihood that an additional supermarket will
be constructed in Mildura in the next year or so. sites
and permits have also been secured to construct a Big
W and an oxygen hardware store in the Fifteenth street
precinct. The eventual construction of these large retail
premises will presumably be to the detriment of some of
the smaller, existing retail businesses.

To top it off unit prices haven’t moved up in 5 years (which is going backwards) and house prices have only increased 10% in 5 years. (or a compound rate of 1,92%)

http://www.rs.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin/rsearch?a=sp&s=vic&u=mildura

It took me about 5 min’s of searching to dig this info up. My conclusion is that Mildura is high risk in terms of investment. With sub par equity growth (negative in real terms because it doesn’t even keep pace with inflation) and seasonal and fluctuating nature of employment opportunities indicates the rental market could be competitive. Currently 82 properties for rent.

Being a small rural town it is vulnerable to changes in domestic, state and national economic factors. Global considerations magnify those factors. Couple that with green house weather events, carbon tax, a high dollar and a narrow (and declining) agricultural base (citrus and wine grapes). Mildura is also a fruit fly exclusion zone. If this pest ever penetrates the region then it’s agricultural base would virtually collapse overnight.

All in all I actually don’t see any positives of sufficient note that make an investment worth the risk.

The Freckle

   Hi Englo    I have 3  built 2 , 3br2b town houses and  bought a 4 br 2b brick house.  Had  2 others sold one before settlement for 10k profit in 2003 and bought one in 1997 cash flow + and sold in 2004 for 50% gain  I think it is good if yuo buy after yhe market is flat as we know the market doesnt go  up constantly steadily, it jumps over a short period , which mean it could jump in a few years to revert to mean growth.

freckle,   another thing you and that economist who sits up there in his distant Ivory tower  and work out average incomes is that there is so much work there a lot of people can demand to be paid in cash. No cash no workers.  There  are people on social security benefits working for cash, counted as unemployed , thats is what makes a great  place to own rental property, they also get rent assistance, if they atr short of money to pay the rent they can just go and get a day or a couple of weeks work pickingfruit or something.  Of course the unemployed will move there, cheap housing.    Also the average incopme figures  are nonsense too as some people work 2 jobs  sometimes one is under a false name the tax man only knows about one . Than the idiot buearocrats wonder why there is so much unclaimed supper annuation.      I know lots of examples where newly arrived migrants who  arrived own nothing but a debt for there travelling expense  after 2 years own a house and a new car, a couple may have 5 jobs between them and they may work 18 hours a day.        You know what they say  about lies and statistics.  Also  some of the worker have small fruit blocks and offset there taxable income further skewing statistics.

(Bold type = Quotes from Crusty above)

I dont know hoe you construe a report saying Irymple can onlly support one new supper market instead of 2 because there are a whloe bunch of new shops and woolworth shopping complex being built 2 k down the road in Mildura as bad??

I’m not saying it’s bad. Herron Todd White, the writers of the report infer it is;

There are a higher than normal number of vacant shops in Mildura’s
main shopping mall and generally low confidence levels
among retailers

The eventual construction of these large retail
premises will presumably be to the detriment of some of
the smaller, existing retail businesses.

Large chain store type operations rarely provide any real benefit in small towns and do have some negative impacts. For example one large store usually means the closure of several small local stores. Over all unemployment options are reduced as large stores rationalise employment. Large stores remove large amounts of money from local economies in payments to outside suppliers and investors. Locals tend to spend most of their income locally.

one of the problems holding back the region is a lack of competent and williing workers

Your word not mine but I agree.

lots of people in mildura from oveerseas many sponsored by their employers because they cant get locals to work or they havent botherd to get the necessary training or skills

The demographics don’t support your assumption of lots of foreign workers. The exception might be seasonal pickers under various govt programs who actually spend very little in town. Foreign workers are a two edged sword. On one hand they enable businesses to continue to survive and subsequently contribute to the local economy. On the other hand foreign workers send the vast majority of their small incomes out of the country and actually take from the locally economy. Their contribution to the property market is almost nil. They don’t buy property as a rule and they rent the cheapest snake pits around.

The report you linked mentioned nothing about the record grain production for the last 2 years or that the area was one of the only area to consistently produce grain over the 10 year drought.

Climate change policy is seeing the regions water rights diminish year by year. The region faces incredible challenges over the next decade or so as they struggle to adapt. Farming generally produces more down years than good and even good years may not be as economically successful as one might think. Bumper crops can actually reduce prices and quality has a significant impact on payouts. All agriculture sectors across Australia are facing unprecedented challenges as global currency wars force the $A ever higher and significant climatic events have increased 10 fold in the last decade. Agricultural insurances are a significant and rising cost to farmers.

The problem with agricultural and how it impacts Mildura are many here’s a few;

Ag employment is becoming more specialised and mechanised to reduce costs and resolve labour shortages

low skilled farm labour (pickers) are the lowest paid jobs.

trend towards farm amalgamation and corporate ownership

conversion to lifestyle blocks as farmers opt out.

http://adl.brs.gov.au/data/warehouse/pe_abarebrs99001275/pc13466.pdf

Many farms in the Mildura–Wentworth region are small, with around 61 per cent of farms having a total value of
agricultural output of less than $150 000 (?gure C) in 2000-01. In total, farms with a value of agricultural output
of less than $150 000 produced less than 20 per cent of Mildura–Wentworth’s value of agricultural output.
In contrast, the largest 2 per cent of farms produced 21 per cent of Mildura–Wentworth’s value of agricultural
output. Many small farms and, particularly the estimated 26 per cent of farms with a total value of agricultural
output of less than $50 000, would be mainly reliant on off-farm income to support their operators.

IF it wasnt for that region being a reliable producer of grain Australia would have been relying on imports to feed itself
I have no idea where you get this idea from. Mildura is the smallest of the grain belt regions.See below.

Mildura–Wentworth is one of Australia’s largest and most diverse agricultural regions with both irrigation
based horticultural industries and dryland broadacre industries. The region produces around 21 per cent
of Australia’s wine grapes and citrus, together with 10 per cent of barley, 7 per cent of wheat, 5 per cent of
vegetables and almost all of Australia’s dried vine fruit production, plus a wide variety of other agricultural
products

While its farm diversity has some economical buffering affects its 2 primary sectors, grapes (38%) and grain (24%) remain vulnerable to global macro economic factors. Grape production faces some serious challenges due a production glut and falling prices. What does help Mildura though is that it processes most of the grape industries production.

The revolution in farming over the last 10 years with no till farming has meant increased (X3) production and more reliabiity cropping every year instead of every 3 and higher yeilds as well new varities such as hindmarsh barley that yeild 30% more not to mention more marginal country can be farmed too. What about the new varities of canola that can be grown and high prices paid for it

Please post sources to substantiate this because I’ve seen nothing that could support these claims. All things considered these claimed improvements would mean only tiny adjustments to the Mildura macro economy. Improved farm efficiency is always occurring yet farm debt is rising faster than farm gross receipts. On Mildura farms 03/04 debt to income was approx 68%. By 05/06 it was 87%.

Nationally the debt to gross T/O is increasing (see slide 17)

http://maps.neilclark.com.au/web/news/Megatrends%20and%20Agriculture%20March%202011.pdf

there have been fruit fly outbreaks over the last couple of years the industry didnt collapse,

I stand corrected.

why post an old outdated report

Irymple Town Centre | Economic
Justin Malkiewicz | Statement of evidence
28 November 2011

Herron Todd White report – 2011 June

Realestate.com.au
Mildura Property Data & Trends
Data current to 2011

there have been 7 more up to date ones released since maybe the one that said Irymple house price went up 40% does fit you bias

In 2002 Irymple saw a 42% jump (units) and 2008 a 29.7% jump (units) according to Realestate.com.au. Does this not make you suspicious?

The corresponding data for houses was 2002 6.3% and 2008 -10.8% I smell a rat somewhere. I suspect the sample size is too small to give accurate figures. Mildura figures are likely to give a more accurate profile of the region.

Any way keep looking through your foggy rearveiw mirror, I will be looking through a clear windscreen

Don’t tell me tell this guy. I think he’s on your side anyway. Maybe a Casino or two will help…

A Mildura property valuer believes that economically Mildura desperately needs Victoria’s second Casino Licence
TUESDAY, 23 NOVEMBER 2010
The valuer Chris Cleary says many district homeowners have lost between 10% and 15% of the value of their properties and presumably a greater percentage of their equity, since the peak of the market around mid 2007. He said this has been disastrous for the region and even at the conservative rate of a 10% loss, this equates to around a $500million loss in householders equity.
“Whilst the drought is now over and we have water back in the river there has been no noticeable improvement in house prices our property market is stagnating,” Mr Cleary said.
“There is a proven direct correlation between population growth and property value growth. Whilst Cairns and Townsville have the advantage of being Coastal locations with larger populations, which you would expect to see strong capital growth, the smaller inland locations of Launceston and Alice Springs have seen a more than doubling of property values in the previous 7 years of (107% and 169% respectively) as against Mildura’s 32%.
Launceston during the 1980’s was considered a region with limited growth prospects.
The Launceston Country Club was one of the first major investments into the region in the 1980’s and since then there has been extensive other investment that has now seen the region as a premium tourist destination with solid population growth.
Mr Cleary says there is a perception that provincial cities with Casino/Entertainment/hotel complexes are progressive regions with an increasing tourist and economic outlook.
“The establishment of such a complex here is likely to lead to other beneficial development,” he says.
“A huge injection in investment in Mildura will see new jobs created, a more progressive outlook, population increase and a resultant increase in homeowners equity and we have to encourage this investment.”
Mr Cleary said that as a region we need to encourage development to see our region grow and prosper rather than listen to the negativity of the fear mongerers who are active in opposing the Jewel entertainment complex.

The Freckle