Is property investing going to poo

This is a pro-property forum so you will be told to hang in there, whereas if you posted on a property bear forum you will be told to get out now. Noone can see the future. I was in your boat last year and sold up 3 properties and now rent with cash in a high interest bearing account and dabble a little in the share market. I havent regretted it so far, but everyone's situation is different.

There is still big money to be made in property if you put the time and effort into it and buy/sell smart. Im too lazy for that, lol.

Johnwilly1000, cycles have been around since Adam was a boy.
This part of this cycle just happens to feel slightly uncomfortable for the moment.
I'm hanging in because I hear over & over from those with many more years of property investing experience than mine, that "this too shall pass." 

There are cycles within cycles. Last up cycle was bigger than any up cycle in quite a while and got a boost when it started to wind down in 2008.

Anyone who brought in before 2004 is sweet.

sell up quick, get out whilst the going is still ok. Buy into something less risky & market-priced, like cfds or futures.

Hi Johnwilly1000,

Everyone's situation is different, but if selling your IP will clear your debt and reduce stress, then it's definitely worth considering.  No point having a mountain of debit if it's going to stress you out.

However, do also consider:-

• Selling into the Brisbane property market at the present time would require you to discount.  It's a strong buyer's market as there are some desperate sellers out there. 

• People generally lose big when they either "have to sell" or if they "panic sell" (whether it be shares, property etc.)

• I expect the Brisbane property market to be flat for a while, so if you're holding on for capital gains in the short term, you could be dissapointed. 

We took the decision a few years back to sell up our IP and reduce debt.  This put us in a strong position and we've managed to pick up a bargain property just this last week from a seller that wanted out.

There's no right or wrong answer.  Just be well informed and choose what's right for you.  Good luck in whatever decision you take!

The problem is people who recommended to sell properties have NO property or money to invest or sell.. Talking rubbish only in every forums

Surely increasing stock levels in every state disprove this. If there truly is a shortfall, how can stock increase without a similar increase in homelessness?

Note that when houses are for sale and causing an increase in stock levels, the houses are simply 'on the market'. They are not 'vacant'. At one point of time there were three houses on my street that were for sale. The owners lived in it till near the time of settlement before moving out and the new family moved in.

The current property market is in the stage of 'profit taking' at the moment, just like what happens to the stock market when there has been a recent run-up in prices. People are trying to take advantage of the increase by either trying to upsize or downsize, hence causing an increase of stock levels, or more appropriately, increase in turnover of stock. Key point of note however, is that regardless of the choice, people moving out of their current places will need another place to live.

To discuss your statement using another analogy that we all know: just because the supermarkets are full of food for sale and there's people blatantly wasting food at massive buffets does not mean that we have an oversupply of food. There are squillions of people around the world who go to bed hungry each night.

Can we then say, 'Surely, if there is a shortage of food, then the supermarket shelves should all be empty? Shouldn't there be no wastage at buffets? Or perhaps buffets shouldn't exist at all?'

Not really.

Definition of 'profit taking' from Investopedia:

"The action of selling stock to cash in on a sharp rise. This action pushes prices down temporarily. When traders are profit taking, the implication is that there is an upward trend in the security."

The word 'demand' does not appear even once in all the posts above, let alone my own response. To use 'profit taking' and 'demand' as consecutive terms in a single sentence is seriously twisted. 'Profit taking' is the act of cashing in by selling, not by buying. Hence, 'profit taking' is not based on 'demand', or the number of people wanting to buy. It's based on the number of people wanting to sell.

Without sounding direct, I'd appreciate if you didn't misrepresent my statements to substantiate your own.

Well, this highlights the crux of the problem: it's about 'wants' and not 'needs'. There's plenty of houses out there, but everybody 'wants' a perfect house in what they deem to be a perfect area. That's not physically possible, hence the shortfall of certain kinds of property, in certain kinds of areas/ suburbs. Imagine 60 people boarding a bus with 30 double seats. The bus can fit 60 people, so there's enough seats for everyone. Yet, everyone 'wants' a window seat, and there's only 30 of them.

So there is a shortfall of 30 window seats. So after all the window seats are filled, the remaining 30 people can choose to either sit in a non window seat, or stand. Or they can leave the bus and take their chances at the next one that arrives. They 'want' a window seat of course, but not everybody can have one. Same with houses. I admit, people need a roof over their heads. Housing is considered by most to be a basic necessity and a form of security. But when people unrealistically 'want' and expect to all be able to squeeze into a small area around the CBD, that's when the problem starts.

I believe that in the context of the words 'oversupply' and 'undersupply', quite simply, there is an 'oversupply' of property in places where people do not want to live (or otherwise do not want that type of property) and an 'undersupply' of property in places where people want to live (or otherwise want a certain type) of property. And in this instance I agree with you. There is NOT a true shortfall, just a shortfall where people want to live. But for all intents and purposes, unless people change their mindset and buy what they can afford, they will continue to believe that affordable property in the areas they desire is in really short supply.

Same with property. Is property not in high demand? I believe so, considering the number of FHB out there trying to get themselves into a new home.

I know of at least two old colleagues who chose to blow their chance at a first home. One of them was saving well, and then blew the money on a new car and a two week holiday. The other colleague also had great plans in mind, and then promptly got a new phone plan to get a fancy phone, and bought a sports bike together with all the other gear to go with it.

Do they want a house? They sure do, but they don't want it badly enough I suppose.

So why can food be in high demand and shelves still be stocked? Two possible reasons:

1. There is not enough food where it's really needed or wanted.

2. Food is expensive and not everyone can afford to buy them.

Replace the word 'food' with the word 'houses' in both those points and we'll see this is exactly what's happening in the world of housing.

And if anybody wishes to start a debate about housing being 'overpriced' rather than just being 'expensive', please read the following post in detail first:

https://www.propertyinvesting.com/forums/property-investing/general-property/4336247

Not gonna repeat myself again.