people have been saying the aussie market will crash for the past 5 or 6 years. Why do you say it will collapse.
That is totally irresponsable to say things like that with no evidence to support your claim.
Affordability has been an issue for decades. With the latest predictions of interest rate cuts over over 1% by end of 2012
that is only likely to see more activity in the australian market.
You refer to the 80's…..home loans at 19% and term deposit interest in the mid teens . That is unsustainable. This time interest rates have been kept in check(and appear to have peaked), Australia's economy is in better shape than nearly all developed countries …so nothing like the 80's.Agree with some of what you some and think some is scare mungering rubbish.
Rick,
i was refering in the eighties to aussie farmers taking US loans which turned against them when the dollar took a plunge. Nothing to do with 19% interest rates here.Some economists say the Australian housing property market will crash. I dont believe this will happen, but we are seeing a slow decline in prices. I experienced it in the 90's and it is happening again now. Interest rates are predicted to fall 1% after the previous month when they predicted they would rise 1%! The reason interest rates will come down is because the economy is stalling. Australia's resource section is the one area that is booming and even that is being hampered by the high Aussie dollar. The rest of the economy is in almost recession mode. I am in an industry that is suffering very, very badly to the point that some businesses will be forced to close within the next 18 months unless things turn around. Some have already closed their doors.
I, for one, hope prices dont decline further as I have property investments in Oz which I know are not worth what I paid for them 5 years ago. The price hasn't crashed but it is less than 5 years ago. I spent some time as a REA myself and have seen these cycles many times. Prices will recover but only when there are buyers. At the moment there are very few buyers, period.
My only slant on this is that if an item is on sale, buy it. It doesnt matter where it is, the only problem is if the item stays on sale too long it becomes the regular price.
I see what you are saying and how you put it in previous post is much better. I for one would be happy for the aussie dollar to retreat back to about 80cents. Make my investment look better on paper.
I think the aussie property market is quit diverse as well there will be area that will always do well. There is currently a softening in the market but if rates come back i believe it will firm up without any price increase in general ……… end of the day it is all guess work and investments should be made on fact and research.Hi Jay,
what is your view on the Portland realestate market?
what sort of returns would you expect in portland?
how many years away before any capital growth returns?
thankssaturday wrote:Hi Jay,what is your view on the Portland realestate market?
what sort of returns would you expect in portland?
how many years away before any capital growth returns?
thanksPortland is typical of the better parts of the west coast. We had a melt down but mainly on the High end IE 2 mil houses went to 1 mil.
You still pay 120 to 200k for a rental that will bring in 900 to 1100 a month.
I have a series of new construction homes that I am into about 250k each and I rent then at 1500 to 1700.
Our market will not rebound like some CA markets will. Lots of buying though, I personally am selling all my rentals here and repositioning to the south east. Cash flow is just so much stronger.
What I am bullish on for our market is new construction and land banking. But new construction is not something the AU investor is probably going to get into, We do not need investors for this and our banks are happy to give us vertical construction loans at 5%. We average about 40 t0 50k per house NET profit. So that allows me to build our South east portfolio.
Everything I new about capital growth over the last 35 years is really just a memory, its anyone's guess as to what is going to happen, So to that end I really think a nice Atlanta house in a good neighborhood for 60k has a better chance of going to 100k in 5 years and will cash flow nicely, than buying a 200k rental here that rents for 1k and may or may not go up.
That all said , Land bank in this area is were the real money is at. because of scarcity of land for builders.
<moderator: delete advertising>
this is were the money is going to be made in the Portland Market or building new houses right now, if you can start a building company like we have. We have 5 subdivisions going and usually about 5 to 8 spec homes going vertical and close 2 to 3 a month.
However if you ever get to this neck of the woods please look us up. and if you e mail me your direct e mail address I will send you over copies of our listings and our new product we are building.
best
JLH
RickH wrote:You refer to the 80's…..home loans at 19% and term deposit interest in the mid teens . That is unsustainable. This time interest rates have been kept in check(and appear to have peaked), Australia's economy is in better shape than nearly all developed countries …so nothing like the 80's.Agree with some of what you some and think some is scare mungering rubbish.
homes were more affordable when rates were at 18%…
Agree with Jay on the South East . I am personally buying and selling in Atlanta , Charlotte . Both are great markets.
Alex
Portpirate wrote:Rick,
i was refering in the eighties to aussie farmers taking US loans which turned against them when the dollar took a plunge. Nothing to do with 19% interest rates here.Some economists say the Australian housing property market will crash. I dont believe this will happen, but we are seeing a slow decline in prices. I experienced it in the 90's and it is happening again now. Interest rates are predicted to fall 1% after the previous month when they predicted they would rise 1%! The reason interest rates will come down is because the economy is stalling. Australia's resource section is the one area that is booming and even that is being hampered by the high Aussie dollar. The rest of the economy is in almost recession mode. I am in an industry that is suffering very, very badly to the point that some businesses will be forced to close within the next 18 months unless things turn around. Some have already closed their doors.
I, for one, hope prices dont decline further as I have property investments in Oz which I know are not worth what I paid for them 5 years ago. The price hasn't crashed but it is less than 5 years ago. I spent some time as a REA myself and have seen these cycles many times. Prices will recover but only when there are buyers. At the moment there are very few buyers, period.
My only slant on this is that if an item is on sale, buy it. It doesnt matter where it is, the only problem is if the item stays on sale too long it becomes the regular price.
I agree with your last sentenane, in the states we are calling it the New Normal… There is a whole generation of Real Estate sales folks that came into the bizz circa 2000 or so and had this great 8 year run. Average days on market hovering around 30 to 40. Escrows closing in 30 days. Everyone getting a loan with no money down and <moderator: delete language>.
Then came 08. and the Crap hit the fan. RE agents were forced either out of the bizz and if they stayed in they had better learn how to deal with banks and short sales etc. Escrows failing all over the place, properties not apprasing, just a very very tough environment the last 3 years for residental and commercial agents.
So I think our market now is the New Norm..
You must be logged in to reply to this topic. If you don't have an account, you can register here.
