Hello
Does anyone with experience in investing in the US market have any recommendations or preferences as to what are the
preferrable suburbs to invest in and why?Try Bella Vista or Company called Spyglass Limited UK do some great stuff!
Or look up Nigel Kibel from the forum here (based in Melbourne) and ask him to share his experience as he has been involved in the US market for sme years now.
Just look up previous posts and get his contact details.
Cheers
Yours in Finance
Richard Taylor | Australia's leading private lender
Husky,
Maybe to help you narrow down the search you can look at where NOT to invest. Some new data came out today from the S&P/Case Shiller House Price index which is a monthly report. The latest stat's are for the month of November and most are starting to predict a double dip in home prices which should be confirmed by their spring time. You can see the latest report here http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?indexId=spusa-cashpidff–p-us—-
I also came across some interesting predictions from Case Shiller that came out in December 2010. They reported15 housing markets that would fall in value the most by 2012 which were
#1 Naples FLORIDA
#2 Las Vegas NEVADA
#3 Miami FLORIDA
#4 Ocean City NEW JERSEY
#5 Phoenix ARIZONA
#6 Gainesville FLORIDA
#7 Fort Lauderdale FLORIDA
#8 Atlantic City NEW JERSEY
#9 Orlando FLORIDA
#10 Punta Gorda FLORIDA
#11 West Palm Beach FLORIDA
#12 Cape Coral FLORIDA
#13 Pensacola FLORIDA
#14 Salinas CALIFORNIA
#15 Prescott ARIZONANot looking good for Florida to have 9 out of the 15 area's predicted to fall the most…would certainly have a drag on the whole states economy
interesting speedy, thanks for the information. do you think its worthwhile holding off for about a year or so before getting into the us property market. sounds to me thats there is no rush to get into it yet.
anyone care to comment…
husky0108 wrote:interesting speedy, thanks for the information. do you think its worthwhile holding off for about a year or so before getting into the us property market. sounds to me thats there is no rush to get into it yet.anyone care to comment…
Every State is very different, there are some areas that are going to perform terribly but others that will probably do well. The Texas market is apparently pretty strong, so if you wanted to invest there then waiting might not be such a good idea, in other areas waiting forever might be the safest bet. You really need to get an understanding of the specific market you want to invest in before you make a call on when to jump in. As with Richard, i suggest you speak with Nigel Kibel who posts regularly on here.
Regards
AlistairSurely it just presents the most opportunity? Those figures on the Standard and Poor's site are way out of reality in any case and serve only in very general terms as to the state of the market.
Personally Florida makes so much sense to me as you can buy properties in good areas which will provide a 14% true net, and you are buying so far under peak pricing that even if they return to only fifty percent of those levels in 5-7 years then you will return approx 33-35% cash on cash and that is non leveraged.
No other market in the US combines that level of cash flow with that probability of capital gains.
I am biased and I do have a vested interest in Florida, and you do need to take advice and do your own research, but I'm now 11 years in the business and have seen hundreds of people waste money buying houses at higher than market price in areas that may have decent returns that will never, ever see any real capital growth, and those people will never be able to sell at the prices they bought never mind a profit.
speedy gonzales wrote:Husky,Maybe to help you narrow down the search you can look at where NOT to invest. Some new data came out today from the S&P/Case Shiller House Price index which is a monthly report. The latest stat's are for the month of November and most are starting to predict a double dip in home prices which should be confirmed by their spring time. You can see the latest report here http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?indexId=spusa-cashpidff–p-us—-
I also came across some interesting predictions from Case Shiller that came out in December 2010. They reported15 housing markets that would fall in value the most by 2012 which were
#1 Naples FLORIDA
#2 Las Vegas NEVADA
#3 Miami FLORIDA
#4 Ocean City NEW JERSEY
#5 Phoenix ARIZONA
#6 Gainesville FLORIDA
#7 Fort Lauderdale FLORIDA
#8 Atlantic City NEW JERSEY
#9 Orlando FLORIDA
#10 Punta Gorda FLORIDA
#11 West Palm Beach FLORIDA
#12 Cape Coral FLORIDA
#13 Pensacola FLORIDA
#14 Salinas CALIFORNIA
#15 Prescott ARIZONANot looking good for Florida to have 9 out of the 15 area's predicted to fall the most…would certainly have a drag on the whole states economy
I just looked up Nigel Kibel as suggested but googled him and found something a little worrying! I found this article and wondered if this is the same person or coincidence?? The article is at ( http://www.jenman.com.au/news_question.php?id=171 )
yes, i too seen this, but thought not to mention it here as it seems many folks on this forum are either connected
to him. interesting that jenman has him on his radar. this is another reason i remain hesitant to enter the us market
with stories like this.Hi Husky & Michael,
Yes you are correct. This forum does have it's share of people trying to sell you something and you would be amazed (or perhaps not) at some of the connections when recommendations come into it. I have already expressed my opinions on all of the so called "buyers agents" that operate from Australia selling US real estate. I think they should change their names to "wholesalers agents"…their just another middle man collecting their cut as you pass through.
Should it hold you back from entering the US market…….I don't think so. You just need to be careful and look twice. I would also suggest you seeing the market first hand before you jump in if you plan to use someone's services….don't take everything they tell you as gospel. Just cause the price looks ridiculous compared to what your used to paying in Australia doesn't mean you throw all investment principles aside.
Spyglass…
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices originated in the 1980s by Case Shiller Weiss's research principals, Karl E. Case and Robert J. Shiller. At the time, Case and Shiller developed the repeat sales pricing technique. This methodology is recognized as the most reliable means to measure housing price movements and is used by other home price index publishers, including the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO).
What reliable and up to date research can you point me to that would give me confidence investing in the area's of Florida you suggest ?
I too am in the final stages of taking the plunge and choosing to invest in the U.S and specifically Miami.
By background, i work in property development, so i have a good grasp of property fundamentals and the thing that makes investing in the U.S so much easier is the amount of research on residential property trends and analysis in the U.S. It makes the Australian residential market look very immature by comparison.
The key fundamental in real estate is scarcity…….scarcity creates value and it also shields an asset to some extent in a downturn. That principle can be applied in any market at any time and it will hold true. Which is why i like Miami beach and downtown Miami. Water frontage is a scarce commodity and once it's developed that's it All things considered, Miami beach has probably fared the best of the Miami precincts and i think will hold the best prospects for future capital growth again, particularly south beach. There is a finite number of development sites left on Miami beach thanks to the building boom of the early to mid 2000's and this will create scarcity once the unsold stock of condo is soaked up by the market over the next two to three years. Given the amount of unsold stock, i think Miami is at least a seven year play at a minimum.
I have been to Miami twice and area's that i think have good potential are south beach, downtown, South Miami (Cutler Bay, Palmetto Bay, Keys gate), Aventura, and the Design District.
The other thing i like about Miami is that it will always attract foreign investment, both in the form of investors and wannabe residents. And indeed i think it's the foreign investment currently flooding into Miami which is putting somewhat of a floor on prices, particularly in the Miami beach area.
The thing about cities like Kansas, Cleveland, Detroit etc that makes me nervous is the illiquidity in those markets if things go pear shaped for any reason……..Miami there will always be buyers at a price, particularly in sought after area's of Miami due to the attractiveness of the city to Foreign investment.
Thanks to everyone for their advice so far…….i will share my research as well.
Yes Im familiar with their approach, essentially they take the house price at one point in time and then the same house price at another point in time and from that extrapolate the house price market for a metro area. The reasons it is a very general indicator of the market are surely obvious. It s info is constructed from prices 5-6 months ago, which is then smoothed out to represent a three month rolling average. It is a metro wide indicator which takes no account of suburbs and quality. This means you have million dollar homes on Collins Ave, Miami mixed up with foreclosed condo's in Hialeah, Miami. It is just an indicator of the general health of the market and no one should use it as a method of choosing where to invest. I think its largely considered something for the media to chew over.
As regards the second point the only info and research I rely on being accurate and up-to-date is what I conduct myself when buying assets. If you are serious ill happily show you the level of due diligence I perform. Just not on a public access forum. Drop me a PM.
Regards,
Mark
It depends quite a bit on your strategy. If you are speculating for some rocket growth in the next 10 years, maybe you should invest in the worst hit states – such as Florida, Nevada etc.
However you might have troubles having some positive cashflow, due to longer vacancies etc. If you look for good rental yields, some of the "less attractive" states can be actually the best.
I wrote an article about the different markets in the US here. I am planning to put together a table of all states and their rental yields, since it can be quite handy to other investors on the forum..Michael Yenarc wrote:I just looked up Nigel Kibel as suggested but googled him and found something a little worrying! I found this article and wondered if this is the same person or coincidence?? The article is at ( http://www.jenman.com.au/news_question.php?id=171 )Neil Jenman is a doomsday kinda reporter, I have a partner in the USA who has describes Jenman as one who promotes his way only…..I am not here to defend Nigel I don’t know him or have had a business dealings with him, I do have experience of purchasing property in Australia & the USA.
I can email you a reply that our company is preparing to respond to Jenmans outrages claims that ALL Australians will loose money investing in the USA.
Jenman does have an agenda……
You can make sound investments in the USA you need to partner with people that have on the ground investment experience and not just smooth talking salesman….but have runs on the board.
Jeff
jeff
please do, email through your companys reply. would be interesting.
propvest78 wrote:jeffplease do, email through your companys reply. would be interesting.
Willl do!!!
jeff2investUSA wrote:propvest78 wrote:jeffplease do, email through your companys reply. would be interesting.
Willl do!!!
If you email me you private email adress I can email you the article as it is to large to copy & paste on the forum….thats if you would like to receive it.
Jeff
my email is [email protected]
Jenman wrote this rubbish in 2003 relating to when I first started with an education business in 2000. If you read the article everything is implied nothing is stated. I had nothing to do with selling property to the people mentioned as I was hired to run Property Investment courses. If anyone has had a bad experience dealing with me please feel free to write here. I have always set out to provide the best service available. My motivation is to help people invest well. I explain what I do and explain my reasons to invest. I started dealing with the United States 5 years ago because back then people on this site were being advised to buy in Buffalo. People are now dealing in Detroit and other average locations. I post here to provide information. If people want do deal with me thats great if not thats fine as well. I have many clients that I assist.
People like Alistair Perry and Richard Taylor have known what I do for years and have dealt with my clients
Nigel Kibel | Property Know How
http://propertyknowhow.com.au
Email Me | Phone MeWe have just launched a new website join our membership today
Zeus111 wrote:I too am in the final stages of taking the plunge and choosing to invest in the U.S and specifically Miami.By background, i work in property development, so i have a good grasp of property fundamentals and the thing that makes investing in the U.S so much easier is the amount of research on residential property trends and analysis in the U.S. It makes the Australian residential market look very immature by comparison.
The key fundamental in real estate is scarcity…….scarcity creates value and it also shields an asset to some extent in a downturn. That principle can be applied in any market at any time and it will hold true. Which is why i like Miami beach and downtown Miami. Water frontage is a scarce commodity and once it's developed that's it All things considered, Miami beach has probably fared the best of the Miami precincts and i think will hold the best prospects for future capital growth again, particularly south beach. There is a finite number of development sites left on Miami beach thanks to the building boom of the early to mid 2000's and this will create scarcity once the unsold stock of condo is soaked up by the market over the next two to three years. Given the amount of unsold stock, i think Miami is at least a seven year play at a minimum.
I have been to Miami twice and area's that i think have good potential are south beach, downtown, South Miami (Cutler Bay, Palmetto Bay, Keys gate), Aventura, and the Design District.
The other thing i like about Miami is that it will always attract foreign investment, both in the form of investors and wannabe residents. And indeed i think it's the foreign investment currently flooding into Miami which is putting somewhat of a floor on prices, particularly in the Miami beach area.
The thing about cities like Kansas, Cleveland, Detroit etc that makes me nervous is the illiquidity in those markets if things go pear shaped for any reason……..Miami there will always be buyers at a price, particularly in sought after area's of Miami due to the attractiveness of the city to Foreign investment.
Thanks to everyone for their advice so far…….i will share my research as well.
Zeus,
I am in a similar position, also looking at Florida as well, I believe there is a great oppurtunity in alot of places accross the USA and the main reason I chose to go for Florida is simply because even if it did not create as much profit as I had hoped, at least I would have a property near the beach in Florida, rather than say in the middle of Kansas City or somewhere a lot less desireable in my opinion.
Could you please email me with your research that you said you could share? It would be greatly appreciated. Thanks
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