What's happening with housing supply??? Well,
– NSW cannot beat pre 2004 levels.
– Vic is still rising, thanks to greenfields being released after the govt did a 180.– Qld is still down after being kicked by GFC.
– SA is busy providing houses for all the locals who are now not moving to Qld.
– WA is falling off a cliff for the second time in 3 years.
Mr Story teller ………… where are you ?????………….
You going to the Steve's, Brisbane Market update next month…..????
Just want to say thanks a lot Winston as this information is really useful. Im in Perth and concur with a lot of what your charts were suggesting for the start of 2011. The one thing Im not sure of though is the effect of the continuing commodity boom for Qld and WA.
Hi Beedie, I doubt I'll go to Steve's market update in Brisbane on March 9.
I honestly don't see any data that changes my earlier views.
I am not interested in passive property investing currently because I don't think future CG or yields will be competitive against other investments.Jason, there's undoubtedly regional opportunities due to commodities export growth. However, I wonder whether lenders will do 85%+ LVR on them, and what time frame represents a reasonable risk? I delved into Qld coal town opportunities in 2003, and came away thinking the risks were not worth taking. The mines, LGAs, and select locals seemed to have too much power and a very asymmetrical information advantage. Unless I was privy to the same info, I'd prefer to steer clear. I don't see the same investor appetite today as 5 years ago, to flick mining property to after holding for 12 mths. Further, we already have CIPs in the Isa and the PMs and services up there have dealt some real gotchas. Mining town PMs make a specialty of milking absentee city LLs. After all, their cost of living is as high as the miners if not higher, and they want their bite of the beef.
Because of my essentially stagnant impression of property prices for the next 5 years, I've peeled back on following the monthly data. Nevertheless, I'll try and get some charts up for and against my view, in the next few weeks.
My energies have been focused on "trading" commodity volatility for at least 9 months – palladium, silver, rare earth elements, and lithium. and getting some health and fitness back after several years of sitting at a computer for way too long.
Hi WinstonWolfe,
Thanks for the indepth charts and your valuable insights
Just like you I am investing in where I believe the returns will be greatest and investing in cycles
I am a firm believer that there are cycles in everything, from properties, to shares, to commodities
And right now I believe the best asset class to invest in during this decade is 'Commodities'
Particularly the precious metal 'Silver' because it is not only a monetary metal but also an industrial metal
However, rather than taking an active approach and trading, I've taken a passive approach
I purchased shares in Silver mining companies such as Hecla, and SilverCorp metals back in November 2010
And intended to hold onto them for the long term portfolio gains E.g. 1 to 4 years
So far the shares have appreciated by a staggering +45%
And with many experts predicting +$50 this year I am very excited about being part of this BULL market
kong71286 wrote:And with many experts predicting +$50 this year I am very excited about being part of this BULL marketYup Silver has been a bullet for 7 months. Expect some buying opportunities during significant pullbacks (if you are confident it will run in the medium to long term).
I too prefer the more nimble investment opportunities presented by commodities over property currently. I think rising commodity prices will increase inflation eventually globally. This will slow economic growth, no matter what interest rates do.
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