All Topics / Help Needed! / Numbers… I’m confused… needs some clarity please

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  • Profile photo of IntrigueIntrigue
    Member
    @intrigue
    Join Date: 2010
    Post Count: 208

    Okay so I just can't get my head around this, from a numerical point of view. I am trying to consider 3 alternatives and the figures for an investment of 100k over a 10yr period. I know real life is not so black and white but I need to get my head around the theory of the numbers.

    CASH – If I put $100k in the bank at 6.5% interest . In 10yrs I have $191,214.44. However I need to consider inflation @ approx 3% thus the value of that money would be…. (would I calculate 3% per annum) meaning the value of that 191k would be more like $141k? How do I put this into numbers? Would I say I earn $41,000 over 10yrs (owe then I have to less tax and fees – so maybe more like $29,000).

    PROPERTY – If I buy an investment property I need (damn where did that post go I was reading the other day)  capital growth rate of… 3% to cover inflation + 7% to cover the finance cost + 2%? (maintenance, sales costs, rates etc) From this whopping percentage I guess I deduct the yield. Soo….  I would need 6% to cover costs and a capital growth rate of 6% to stay ahead? If I achieve this and we hope that property doubles in 10yrs I make 100k? But if I sell I have to pay CGT which would reduce this to somewhere around $70k

    If I put $100k into my debt on my home I would save/make $7,000 per annum thus $70,000 over 10yrs? 

    And I cannot even yet begin on the share option.

    I am trying to work out for me in my situation in this climate what the best option to do is. I want to buy an IP property and enjoy some long term capital growth in an attempt to secure passive income however I am uncertain as to when to do this.
    It seems in this climate if I left my pennies in my offset to my PPOR I may be better off. Property prices are falling in the areas I seek to invest and thus can I afford to wait 12 months before taking the plunge or should I be jumping is asap?

    Profile photo of Ryan McLeanRyan McLean
    Participant
    @ryan-mclean
    Join Date: 2010
    Post Count: 547

    You are yet to factor in rental growth, which increases your return on investment.
    Also if you bought a positive cash flow property then the yield would cover the expenses.

    You don't need 3% capital gains to cover inflation. If you buy the property then you are probably going to leverage it. Let's say you put in $20,000k and borrow $100,000k. Then you are leveraged 1/5 and you would only need 0.6% capital gains to cover inflation.

    Your calculations are confusing you because you state "7% to cover the finance costs" but you haven't taken the leverage into account…that is where you are going wrong.

    With $100,000 you could potentially invest in $500,000 worth of property, if they double in 10 years you make $500,000 on your money (minus expenses) not $100,000. That's what puts property so far ahead of putting money in the bank.

    Ryan McLean | On Property
    http://onproperty.com.au
    Email Me

    Profile photo of ducksterduckster
    Participant
    @duckster
    Join Date: 2004
    Post Count: 1,674
    Intrigue wrote:
    Okay so I just can't get my head around this, from a numerical point of view. I am trying to consider 3 alternatives and the figures for an investment of 100k over a 10yr period. I know real life is not so black and white but I need to get my head around the theory of the numbers.

    CASH – If I put $100k in the bank at 6.5% interest . In 10yrs I have $191,214.44. However I need to consider inflation @ approx 3% thus the value of that money would be…. (would I calculate 3% per annum) meaning the value of that 191k would be more like $141k? How do I put this into numbers? Would I say I earn $41,000 over 10yrs (owe then I have to less tax and fees – so maybe more like $29,000).

    Yes – You could take $100k and compound it at 3% each year or FV=PV(1+0.03)^10 and subtract this increase from the 6.5% amount in ten years time.
    You would pay tax each year from the 6.5% interest thus reducing your interest from cash even more.
    year one $100,000 * 6.5% = 6500 then subtract say 30% in tax  approx $1950 equals 4550
    Year two $104,550 * 6.5% = 6795 then subtract say 30% in tax approx $2038 equals 4757
    year three $109.307 * 6.5% = 7104 then subtract say 30% in tax approx $2131 equals 4973
    Notice that the tax payable increases each year so it makes it not a good investment and does not
    take into account the CPI inflation which is why I do not save money.

    Intrigue wrote:
    PROPERTY – If I buy an investment property I need (damn where did that post go I was reading the other day)  capital growth rate of… 3% to cover inflation + 7% to cover the finance cost + 2%? (maintenance, sales costs, rates etc) From this whopping percentage I guess I deduct the yield. Soo….  I would need 6% to cover costs and a capital growth rate of 6% to stay ahead? If I achieve this and we hope that property doubles in 10yrs I make 100k? But if I sell I have to pay CGT which would reduce this to somewhere around $70k

    You need to reduce the capital gain by 50% if owned for more than 12 months I think indexation was a lot fairer for long term investments as the CPI was taken into account  but it no longer applies after 1999 I think.
    What you need to work out is the cash flow loss each year  plus the 3% for CPI
    Expenses – Rent = cash loss
    You have to make a gain of this each year to just break even now you need to take into account the CGT .
    I worked it out to 7.1% capital gain each year to break even taking 3% CPI and 4500 a year cash loss .
    Based on rental yield of 4% on a loan of 100,000
    at 6.5% interest and capital gains tax of 30%
    If you can pay off the loan quicker you can get ahead of the interest costs

    Intrigue wrote:
    If I put $100k into my debt on my home I would save/make $7,000 per annum thus $70,000 over 10yrs? 

    No that is too simple
    If you are making the same P & I repayment then you get a compounding effect
    and end up paying more off the loan as each repayment bites more into the principle owing.
    So yes interest rate saved could be 7000 but the repayment is a saving as well

    Intrigue wrote:
    And I cannot even yet begin on the share option.

    I am trying to work out for me in my situation in this climate what the best option to do is. I want to buy an IP property and enjoy some long term capital growth in an attempt to secure passive income however I am uncertain as to when to do this.
    It seems in this climate if I left my pennies in my offset to my PPOR I may be better off. Property prices are falling in the areas I seek to invest and thus can I afford to wait 12 months before taking the plunge or should I be jumping is asap?

    one worrying factor for me is that interest rates are not just determined by the RBA anymore and as off shore money is costing the banks more to borrow the banks could pass this extra cost on to borrowers rather than absorb it.

    If you leave funds in the offset account you have the option to use it later if things go bad in the market.
    You need to work out how much risk you can tolerate.

    And work out what if you lost a tenant for 3 – 4 months how would you manage.
    if interest rates increased to 10.5% how would you manage.
    How stable is your employment and how would you manage if you lost your job.

    Profile photo of IntrigueIntrigue
    Member
    @intrigue
    Join Date: 2010
    Post Count: 208

    Thank you very much for the replies – I had feared my post would end up in the too hard basket.

    Thanks duckster for your detailed reply, it is the last 3 points (risk factors) that I am trying to get my head around. I am trying to turn the risk factors into figures so that I can make an educated decision and this being where my problem occurs.

    I believe I will be able to find loan calculators that will aid me in determining my earings/saving by putting extra monthly funds into my offset,.

    For property I will have another go considering your comments.. If I can just get this formula sorted I will be able to see through all those trees (I hope)….

    Now where has that white board gone.

    Profile photo of TerrywTerryw
    Participant
    @terryw
    Join Date: 2001
    Post Count: 16,213

    i would disregard inflation for this sort of scenario as it will apply for any option you go with.

    You should also consider that if you had $100,000 cash you should be using this to pay down your non-deductible home loan and then reborrowing it to invest. You will be be saving $x pa in interest and will also be able to get the other investments too.

    Terryw | Structuring Lawyers Pty Ltd / Loan Structuring Pty Ltd
    http://www.Structuring.com.au
    Email Me

    Lawyer, Mortgage Broker and Tax Advisor (Sydney based but advising Aust wide) http://www.Structuring.com.au

    Profile photo of IntrigueIntrigue
    Member
    @intrigue
    Join Date: 2010
    Post Count: 208

    Cheers Terry, I wish I had 100k cash, sadly not… I would be borrowing the 100k.

    Profile photo of Ryan McLeanRyan McLean
    Participant
    @ryan-mclean
    Join Date: 2010
    Post Count: 547

    Glad to hear you are getting your head around it. Hard to put a figure on 'risk' though.
    The more you know about investing the more you can be aware of and the lower the risk it. Some of that comes from reading books etc. some of it comes from life experience.

    I don't know anyone who got rich by sticking their money in a term deposit though.

    Ryan McLean | On Property
    http://onproperty.com.au
    Email Me

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