I recently bought a property in Baulkham Hills, Sydney, and while the price was right, and all other of my criteria were satisfied (close to a great school, high owner occupier rate of 80%, close to other amenities etc), I'm worried about past data showing the region's rate of growth.
According to some stats I found on the web (e.g. http://www.investsmart.com.au/property-research/NSW/2153/Baulkham-Hills.asp) Baulko only grew at 5.34% 'long term trend' whereas other suburbs grew at 8% or 10% long term (e.g. out of random, some that beat Baulko were Villawood, Waverley, Epping etc)
My question is – how important are stats of past rate of growth in determining future growth? I know in shares, past data is useless, is it the same in property?
A big part of my question is how I can reconcile the fact that people tout lines like "property prices tend to double every 10 years". Well if prices double every 10 years, that equals a 7% growth rate – is that the average for capital cities like Sydney? if so, then can I rightly assume Baulko really underperformed at 5% (and interestly, Carlingford, another blue-ribbon suburb, only grew around 3% long term according to http://www.investsmart.com.au/property-research/NSW/2118/Carlingford.asp)?
Sorry for the complex question. I guess ultimately I'm just scared I made a bad suburb choice lol…
BH will probably be affected in many beneficial ways by the NW rail link. At present it is a good area with a Stocklands shopping centre, easy access to M2 etc. Once the rail link goes in (pie in the sky or reality) then large tracts will need to be rezoned to accommodate additional population.
I'd say underpriced but long term hold.Thanks for the comment. I know it’s a good area but just concerned how I should interpret the region’s lackluster past long term growth rate of 5%. should i worry about this at all? Some have told me it’s better to go with suburbs that have had a strong history of sustained growth but at the same time I know it could be that yesterdays losers are tomorrows winners…
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