No Housing Bubble in Australia…is there?

Hi Guys

Well I'm sitting in the Sheraton N0.1 hotel in Rome we just did a 18 day tour of Italy and over the Swiss boarder.

Tomorrow I go to Paris and then London, I have 3 mates from the states with me and a few others.

There are opportunities in the states for sure, Europe is quite different BUT I am blown away with the number of tourists, one bus company has put on another 100 buses just for September to handle the demand _ go figure that.

All the talk is that Aussie will drop by 20% in the top end … lets see if it does happen.

Remember that if all real estate goes up and you want to upgrade you are further behind because every thing else is rising as well. In Europe tourism is a big booming business.

Your home is not an ASSET if it the only thing you own, like in the game of monopoly you need to be in a position of getting 4 green houses to pay for your PPOR and not your take home pay.

I'm enjoying being away from Australia and encourage everybody here to travel and see what is happening in other parts of the world.

Take care all i'm looking forward to checking out Paris and London.

Regards Philip Sigglekow
LREA author

Yes W agreed.

What is a millionaire in 1980 today is probably valued at 10 million dollars to be a millionaire.

This all began (inflation) in 1971 when Nixon too away the cash value from gold … read the conspiracy of the rich by Kiyosaki.

Here in Paris and London the sentiment is the same … affordability.

Cheers Philip Sigglekow

a couple interesting articles today in business spectator & the eureka report. Banks withholding finance to new developments as a form of ‘price support’ ie withhold supply & cause demand to build up.

more like banks are overexposed to residential, however will increase that by taking on presold residential developments (go figure) but have little confidence in commercial markets and are very underweight in this area by historical averages.

Our banks have mark to market RMBS debt held on their books. The only way property can continue to rise is IF international investors continue to rollover the banks finance at affordable levels.

The banks and LMIs have been reducing capital requirements by continually updating valuations and doing capital calculations on the updates.
Which explains the residential development finance requirements. 

I fear the Game is over.

Yeah , let all stock up on baked beans and head for the hill (again)

People who's incomes will also double ?
I've heard the same 'who will afford it" when prices where 1/3 to 1/2 of what they are now and guess what , someone can still afford them.

Is it just me, or do Philip's posts make no sense? And the attack on Harb is out of line. He's just pointing out we have heard all the doom and gloom talk before.

Yes, Nixon took the gold standard away from the USD, so what?

And no, I don't want to read a book by a guy who has failed at every business he has ever undertaken, other than writing books about how to get rich! God bless Aamerica.

Welcome back Wynyrd!

This article is full of 'whatever' numbers.

"Demographia listed Melbourne as the world's 321st most affordable city, more reasonably priced than only Sydney, which came in at 325th, and a handful of other locations."

Umm sure, so how many cities are in the world? According to GOOGLE there are 2469501 cities in the world. So being 321st isn't really that bad.

"Brisbane's affordability trailed London’s so-called  exurbs, which stretch into neighbouring counties in east and southeast England. Queensland’s capital ranked 303 in terms of affordability, with a ratio of 6.6 per cent while the English markets were 297, with a ratio of 6.5 times."

Brisbane trailed Londons outer suburbs is what I get from the paragraph above. Nowhere in the above or the Demographia quotes says that LONDON IS CHEAPER THAN GEELONG.

Sorry to say but "English markets" is not LONDON.

Please don't bother trying to tell us all how unaffordable everything is. The question you should be asking my friend is "what do fear mongerers have to gain" People who spruik the market "what do they have to gain?", people who spook the market, "what do they have to gain?".

Simple.

People will afford what they can when they can. When they can no longer pay what vendors expect then the price will dip.DIP not crash. There will not be a fall of $200k on a $400k house just because people don't "want to" pay that price.

Any more articles? You know what I can do with Google my old friend!

D

Hey DWolfe!

See second para, and I quote: "London is more affordable than Geelong."

The print article (from the Age, syndicated with SMH – I just did a quick google to dig up the spooks) had numbers to back this up (in graphic form, prob why not shown here). Yes, it is more affordable to buy in London, taking into account cost of living vs expenses, not just house prices. London, not exurbs. Roughly translates to Geelong is more expensive than London. Brisbane more expensive than the exurbs.

And, what do your market spooks have to gain? Maybe a valid point. If I am one, what I hope to gain is affordability and hope for my generation to own their own place! Some hope for creative people how don't work 60hours a week and might pursue an arts career/study and meager living but still want to live in the city that thrives of the 'culture' the poor bastards provide (not to sing that poor-artist song too loudly, it might offend then new neighbours wanting a piece of the inner city action). That's all.

I'll try find a list of the 325 cities they looked at, and see what basis they chose these 325 cities on. I'm sure they were chosen for the desirability to live in. There may be 2469501 worse cities to pick from yet. But I do love an article that is sympathetic to my anguish.

Wynyrd,

That is not a direct quote from the Demographia study, just journalism.

I have read through the other post you have put on other threads and honestly it seems like u are just waiting in hope for some one to hand to a nice house in a thriving area. Aint gonna happen.

You need to get up, stop worrying about what "the market" is doing and make an active choice to change your own life.

I'd like to meet any investor from this site who just got handed multiple properties (or even one) I think they would be thin on the ground.

As for your comments about Egypt, that really shows me how immature you must be. People rebel as there is genuine problems such as no food, high crime and corrupt officials, and limited choice.

I see no parallels between Australia, being the land of choice and opportunity and Egypt where at the moment there is none.

Get up and get going. This is as much of a hand out as you are going to get. YOU are the only person who can change your life. I can't come over to you and hold your hand and buy you a house. You need to go out there and take what opportunity there is in your life.

I really hope in 6 mths time you are not still on here complaining because that will really tell me and everyone else that you are not interested in changing your life.

D