Looking at your thread I recalled reading an article back in March in the Herald Sun where they quizzed a number of 'experts' in the property field regarding their thoughts on where the property market was headed, and what the interest rate trend was going to be. Knowing now how the market actually fared following the March quarter one might be tempted to think that even the 'experts' know diddly squat because all of them were nearly completely wrong. And arguably, it's unreasonable too, to expect anybody to know where things are headed.

Ultimately I think that this is a case of 'yer pays yer money, and yer takes yer chances'. In any given scenario, 30% of the people will be correct, 60% of them will be wrong, and 10% decline to make statements of any real value (or otherwise make statements so broad as to be inconclusive).

Personally I think it's simple enough to assume that as interest rates go higher the price growth is going to slow. The number of people actually buying a PPOR is going to slow because of firstly, interest rates, and secondly, just being exhausted and worn out from the search and being outbid at everything week after week. So that's where I think the market is headed in the middle to lower range, while the upper range is going to see steady growth regardless. Obviously properties in the most desirable of suburbs may see large price jumps and stock levels that are very thin on the ground.

Unless some major things happen in terms of change of regulations, or unless crap hits the fan with a major economy going underwater, or a sudden reduction in public confidence, I think the above is what we're likely to see in coming months.

Here's what i got emailed today (sorry don't know source). Re Melbourne market.

Melbourne still soaring with 84% clearance

NATALIE PUCHALSKI

April 19, 2010

MELBOURNE'S property market continued its incredible run at the weekend and because of strong demand, shows no signs of slowing.

This weekend, 739 out of a reported 875 auctions resulted in a sale, producing another high clearance rate of 84 per cent.

Though it's usually the weakest quarter, the first three months of 2010 were at their strongest since 2003, according to the REIV.

Melbourne's median house price dropped just 2 per cent to $524,500, while unit and apartment prices grew by 2 per cent to a record $450,000.

The median price of houses sold at auction rose by 4.4 per cent to $720,000 and apartments increased by 3.5 per cent, putting more stress on buyers.

REIV chief executive Enzo Raimondo said the most demand and the greatest price increases were being felt in some of the most expensive suburbs.

"The largest increases in median prices were recorded in Malvern East, Brighton, Frankston South, Footscray West, Ascot Vale, Glen Iris, Kew, Camberwell, Surrey Hills and Blackburn – six of which have a median in excess of a million.''

This weekend, almost 100 properties sold for more than $1 million, with another 10 selling for more than $2 million. Two subdivided blocks of land in Toorak at 4 Trawalla Avenue fetched more than $5 million each at auction.

There were seven bidders for 5 Ross Street, Kew, which went under the hammer for $2.26 million, $260,000 above its reserve.

Noel Jones group chairman Adrian Jones said the house was going to be demolished; part of an increasing trend towards viewing inner suburban property ''purely in terms of land value''.

Ruth Roberts, of Woodards, said one of their properties at 21 Manchester Grove in Glen Huntly was on the market for private sale for three weeks without getting an offer.

It was then put to auction and attracted six bidders, selling for $917,000, above its $860,000 reserve.

JPP Buyer Advocate Catherine Cashmore said the only way to cool the market was to increase supply, and this would take time.

Malcolm's Real Estate chief executive Frank Hellier said 1 Maude Street, Cheltenham, had five competitive bidders, who pushed the price to $778,500, past a $630,000 reserve.

''I think if the interest rates continue to increase, it might take the edge off the market in the next six months,'' he said.

If I had a million I know where I would be buying……

D