- ajaydee73 wrote:Rising unemployment + rising interest rates + tightening lending standards + reduced first home buyers grant + lower incomes + lower immigration = bad for property prices.
from july 4th
FIRST home buyer grants are continuing to boost the housing market in NSW.
The number of first home buyer grants taken up across the state was 7,354 for the month of June, compared to 4,311 for February.
The trend in the figures mirrors trends in sales and grants on newly constructed homes.
From a low of 256 grants on newly purchased homes in January, figures have climbed steadily over the months, with 816 such grants in June – a six-month increase of 313 per cent.
Mr Roozendaal dismissed suggestions that the state and federal stimulus payments to first-time home buyers were creating an artificial housing bubble that may burst once the payment schemes are trimmed.
”It's precisely what you do in an economic downturn,” he said.
”We are directly targeting the housing construction sector – it is depressed (and) it has a huge multiplier (effect) right through the economy.”
The treasurer also challenged economists' forecasts that once the stimulus schemes are reduced, housing prices will drop by more than the amount that first-time buyers could receive in government payments.
”I think people are recognising opportunity when they see it,” Mr Roozendaal said.
”And if they think it's the right time, they should take advantage.”
Mr Roozendaal would not be drawn on suggestions that stimulus payments were prompting developers to increase prices of newly-built homes.
”Well it's about stimulating the housing construction industry,” Mr Roozendaal said.
”What we are seeing is record numbers of first home buyers each month.
”First home buyers are realising the Australian dream.”
From today
"AUSTRALIA's housing recovery is under way, with prices jumping 3.3 per cent in the June quarter – the strongest quarterly growth recorded in house and unit prices since December 2007.
The figures were revealed in the latest Australian Property Monitors' Quarterly Housing Data report, which said Brisbane and Perth were the only markets with both house and unit median prices at less than June 2008 levels.
The Sydney market was one of the biggest movers, with the median price rising 3.7 per cent, the first quarter of median price growth for houses since December 2007. The rise brings house prices back to the level of June last year, The Australian reports.
Darwin remained the strongest market nationally, with annual rises for houses and units up nearly 20 per cent. Outside of Darwin, Melbourne recorded the next biggest rise in median house price, up 5.8 per cent in the June quarter.
"The consolidation that began in the March 2009 quarter has now transformed into strong growth across the country," APM economist Matthew Bell said.
He said that while low interest rates, flat prices and first-home owner grants supported the affordable end of the market through the end of last year and early this year, "it's the upper end of the market that's driven the strong growth in the major capitals in the June quarter".
For Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, he said, median prices in the top 50 per cent of suburbs grew by nearly double the rate of those of the bottom 50 per cent.
The release of the APM figures came as a report prepared by property research firm RP Data, on behalf of the Commonwealth Bank, showed the number of suburbs where it was cheaper to service a monthly mortgage payment than pay rent rose from 74 to 94 in the past six months, reflecting a 27 per cent rise.
Affordability improved further after factoring in the $14,000 first-home buyers grant."
Now Ajay, I am not saying your wrong ( well I kinda am, but thats just my personal opinion) and these guys are right, it's just that everyone has an opinion, whether it be right or wrong, endless arguments can ensue. When it comes to two things, Economics and Real Estate, there will always be the black and white and the huge variances of grey in between. It seems to me no one really knows for sure until after the fact. Personally, from what I see, and what my former colleagues tell me, things are looking up, but I then have to admit, what I see is only a small part of the world.
Hello again Digger,
I have been investing for 25 years … how about you.
I learnt to trade the stock market years ago and my coach said all the statistics and rules I am teaching you will change when you start to invest with YOUR OWN money … GOD was he correct.
Walk to streets talk to 100 agents, talk to 100 accountants, talk to 100 solicitors, get a clear understanding not just from a few papers.
You are soooooooo correct there are tooooo many opinions that differ and thats because of a lack of true knowledge … look at the number of gurus who say OK we're on the bottom you can start buying … I have critized several on this site I even have all their old scpipt and it is a load of crap digger … I told one here to go back and read what he had written in his newsletters …
The deffinition of an economist is a person who can read the past … don't tell me what the stock market did last week or last month and how money I could have made … tell me about tomorrow and sign a person guarantee or buzz off …
Digger … things will get worse before they get better.
Are there bargins out there YOU BET.
Does what I say DON'T buy – NO … BUT now is the time to be EXTREEMLY fussy and pick the best then you will make millions …
D
W4L…are you for real?
In your last post you reference Harry Dent…and now you claim economists views are not relevant for forecasting???
Don't get me wrong, I think you are 100% correct.
Just not consistant in your presentation
Economists get paid for spouting their views… a very different proposition to someone actually investing. I know which I'd follow.
Economist, economic commentators, financial experts, fiancial writers, general economic bla bla noise makers fall all into one or another category.
They either invest in the market they presume to know and talk about it…or they do not invest and just talk about it.I made it a rule for myself, not to listen to anyone who's investment protfolio is smaller than 10 times mine and growing, and who can not show a sound track record of a minimum of double the time I have been in the market.
I am having a realy quite time lately figuring out things as they come up day by day, mainly dismissing what I read or hear as noise because of the origin, and focusing on a few who interestingly enough are very cautious and clearly do not throw any prediction around as fact. What scares me most is when people ask me for my advice.
All I like to say is that there is only the present.
That is why it is called a present !diggerdigzit wrote:Now Ajay, I am not saying your wrong ( well I kinda am, but thats just my personal opinion) and these guys are right, it's just that everyone has an opinion, whether it be right or wrong, endless arguments can ensue. When it comes to two things, Economics and Real Estate, there will always be the black and white and the huge variances of grey in between. It seems to me no one really knows for sure until after the fact. Personally, from what I see, and what my former colleagues tell me, things are looking up, but I then have to admit, what I see is only a small part of the world.I'm talking about where property prices are heading in the future, not what they've done in the past.
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