ha ha this thread is the most entertaining i've read for a while.
I'm wondering if International, AKA Tony Robinson is going to try to sell us property, property advice, a Tony Robinson CD or some drugs so we can be on the same planet. as he is – where the clouds are pink and the monkey's jibber jabber joo, and where it is completely up to you wether or not you have a good day. Hell, my horse died, my business lost a major contract, and my Mum was diagnosed with breast cancer, but, thanks to TONY, I know, it's up to me – what a SUPER day. (btw that's a joke, those things didn't really happen).
I'm wondering if Badger will start spitting when he types his next response.
I'm wondering if any newbies will actually do as International is suggesting and put their finance arrangments in order and then call his good friend for FREE property advice.
One things for sure, this thread has brightened my day. Thanks Empire, and Badger. And mysterious newbies with only one post to their name who find everything that Empire has to say very intelligent, not cheesy.
Keep it up!
Hi all,
Did you know that Brisbane properties in the lower end (below $450,000) have actually increased in value of 10% over the past 12 months. (Mutusik Insights).
This is the area that is doing well throughtout Australia, not just Brisbane. Obviously the higher end is the area where most are not buying in volume now. Hence, great buying opportunities in the lower end.
Eric
International,
Yes, my Brisbane properties have gone up. But what goes up will come down. I think they will fall 10% over the next 12 months. But my rents have gone up heaps so it doesn't matter. Just hope all my tenants don't loose their jobs so they can't pay the rent, this is the worry over the next 2 years.To the original post: We have a local real estate agent that posts reports on our local foreclosures/short sales and other general buying information like prices and so on. She posts them on her site (http://www.maryfloyd.prudentialgeorgia.com/) and her blog and I use it to keep track of the value of my property. I think that this is a valuable resource because it shows the reality of what is happening to houses around mine.
The argument about doubling in house prices based on historical trends may not go on forever.
Like everything else it's easier to grow from a low base, e.g. from $50K to $100K, but if its from $500K to $1,000K it is more difficult.
Imagine the next level of doubling from the current median of say $600K…we're talking about $ 1.2m, then what $ 2.4m?
Guess what level of repayments for $2.4m….does one's salary double every 7-10 years as well when one reaches the peak of one's career? Just look at average salaries and you'll know what I mean.
Yes, exceptions do happen, but they're exceptions!
Hi Clkhoo
I understand that it seems hard to see properties increase to $1m in time, but we need to be aware of inflation as well. so if properties do become average $1m in time, then average incomes would also be equivalent.
everything is relative. best compare 20 years ago, what were properties worth? what were average incomes? cost of milk ? etc.
and then do the same for todays costs. In 20 years then, income would be average $100,000 and a car might be $80,000 to $100,000 as well. Milk might be $20 a litre?What about what London has proven for the last 1000 years?
Food for thought….
clkhoo wrote:The argument about doubling in house prices based on historical trends may not go on forever.Like everything else it's easier to grow from a low base, e.g. from $50K to $100K, but if its from $500K to $1,000K it is more difficult.
Imagine the next level of doubling from the current median of say $600K…we're talking about $ 1.2m, then what $ 2.4m?
Guess what level of repayments for $2.4m….does one's salary double every 7-10 years as well when one reaches the peak of one's career? Just look at average salaries and you'll know what I mean.
Yes, exceptions do happen, but they're exceptions!
Hi Deidrea8,
Thanks, very interesting website indeed.
Hows the market there now?
deidrea8 wrote:To the original post: We have a local real estate agent that posts reports on our local foreclosures/short sales and other general buying information like prices and so on. She posts them on her site (http://www.maryfloyd.prudentialgeorgia.com/) and her blog and I use it to keep track of the value of my property. I think that this is a valuable resource because it shows the reality of what is happening to houses around mine.To international empire, you do have points but one can also argue otherwise with other goods.
Just look at whitegoods for example or a computer or even a car. Has the price doubled in the last 10yrs or even 20 yrs ago?
Furthermore comparing what happened the past 100 years ago is what my point is all about. Will that growth be repeated the next 100 years?Ask any salesman with sales target and they'll also argue the same, one could start with a low sales target but when it reaches a certain level doubling it is a different animal altogether. Similar with any businesses, when it reaches a certain level it can't move on with the same level of growth. Point of diminshing return as it is called. That point will come I believe.
I just cannot imagine million bucks property in the medium term for the ordinary folks unless you're in Zimbabwe!
Obviously we're not interested what happens in the next 100 yrs or so but what will happen in our lifetime at least.
Heheh…I was reading the first post of this old thread and thought to myself that hindsight is a wonderful thing. If I had bought anything, ANYTHING at all during Mar/ April last year instead of sitting on the fence waiting for property to collapse, I would have made lots of money by now. During that time however I indulged in dinner conversation about the potential crash of the property market considering the abysmal share market conditions around the same period, a mistake indeed.
I wound up buying something in August, under the fiery heat of incredible competition, probably overpaying in the process just to get my first home…now perhaps THAT was actually the wrong time to buy because interest rates started to go on the up and up soon after settlement.
Yes, hindsight is a wonderful thing.
Spot on. Im just lucky i did buy . Wish i bought more but.
INTERNATIONAL EMPIRE wrote:What about what London has proven for the last 1000 years?Food for thought….
clkhoo wrote:The argument about doubling in house prices based on historical trends may not go on forever.Like everything else it's easier to grow from a low base, e.g. from $50K to $100K, but if its from $500K to $1,000K it is more difficult.
Imagine the next level of doubling from the current median of say $600K…we're talking about $ 1.2m, then what $ 2.4m?
Guess what level of repayments for $2.4m….does one's salary double every 7-10 years as well when one reaches the peak of one's career? Just look at average salaries and you'll know what I mean.
Yes, exceptions do happen, but they're exceptions!
Hi Eric,
You seem to have missed my refutation of the London property market doubling every 7-10 years for hundreds of years earlier in this thread so I will post it again.
mattnz [228 Posts]
April 24, 2009 – 11:11am
Joined: 30/12/2007
Thanks Eric,
At the moment in Australia the house price to household income ratio is very poor. If I earn $80k today and stretch to get into a $500k home now, who is going to buy it off me in 7-10 years for $1 million, and what will they be earning for the equivalent job? In 7-10 years after that, who will buy it off them for $2 million and what will they be earning?We need to be very careful looking at “historical data”. To me the past 30 years isn’t a long enough timeframe to anticipate what may happen in the next 14 years.
At your presentation you said that there was historical data stating that London prices had doubled every 7-10 years for the past 700 years. This is factually incorrect and it is easy to prove it.
Let’s say you could have bought your average family home in London for only 2 pounds 700 years ago. Based on only doubling every 10 years, that is 70 periods of 10 years.
The equation is 2^70 = 1,180,591,620,717,410,000,000 pounds. i.e. 1,180 billion billion pounds. There isn’t this much money on earth today, to buy that one house.
The easy credit availability of the past 30 years is not going to continue after the current crisis. Unless US money printing, trying to get them out of this mess creates very high inflation rates, it is hard to see prices doubling every 7-10 years any more.
I still see real estate as a good and worthwhile investment, but I don’t think the expectations you are setting in your seminars are realistic.Cheers,
MattHindsight is a wonderful thing!! I was keen to buy last year…but my hubby insisted that we wait until the end of the FHOG…prices would fall he said….hmmmmm………still waiting for THAT to happen!!
fWord,
Indeed, good for you you purchased last year, Dec qtr RPdata reported strong growth.
The Australian Medium is now $470,000. Last 12 months property increased in Australia 11.6%. Not bad in a global financial crisis and most developed countries in a recession.
Australia was once of the few countries that increased its interest rates 4 time over the last 5 months. Yes, this is hard on Australians, however investors are the true winners here, rents have increased still.
Most economists and experts have been shocked to see the strong property growth last 12 months, and still expect further increases this year.
Either way, seems that property is defying the opinions of most.
I just bought another property this month. Indeed we saw many people at inspections and property are moving fast… still.
fWord wrote:Heheh…I was reading the first post of this old thread and thought to myself that hindsight is a wonderful thing. If I had bought anything, ANYTHING at all during Mar/ April last year instead of sitting on the fence waiting for property to collapse, I would have made lots of money by now. During that time however I indulged in dinner conversation about the potential crash of the property market considering the abysmal share market conditions around the same period, a mistake indeed.I wound up buying something in August, under the fiery heat of incredible competition, probably overpaying in the process just to get my first home…now perhaps THAT was actually the wrong time to buy because interest rates started to go on the up and up soon after settlement.
Yes, hindsight is a wonderful thing.
dbliss,
Hindsight sure is bliss… sad to see how your husband feels about the property market…. many thought the same about the FHOG, last year many people bought their home…. while others speculated that the market was too high and would wait for it to end thinking the market would drop. It did not. It actually increased to everyones dismay!
Like it or not, Australia's population increased last year over 400,000 people (ABS), and now our population is over 22,000,000. Land is still not supplied enough. Lenders are very tough now and not lending easily to developers… so their will be a massive shortage of property. Demand is growing yet limited supply.
BIS Shrapnel is predicting double digit growth over next 3 years for Australian cities.
Eitherway, I'm not selling…. in fact I may look for more opportunities and buy further.
Buy and hold for long term, you can very go wrong I was told when I was 16. The gentleman who told me this advice had 11 investment properties then.
Up to you… you can think about it…. while others take action and invest.
Eric
dbliss wrote:Hindsight is a wonderful thing!! I was keen to buy last year…but my hubby insisted that we wait until the end of the FHOG…prices would fall he said….hmmmmm………still waiting for THAT to happen!!clkhoo wrote:To international empire, you do have points but one can also argue otherwise with other goods.
Just look at whitegoods for example or a computer or even a car. Has the price doubled in the last 10yrs or even 20 yrs ago?
Furthermore comparing what happened the past 100 years ago is what my point is all about. Will that growth be repeated the next 100 years?Ask any salesman with sales target and they'll also argue the same, one could start with a low sales target but when it reaches a certain level doubling it is a different animal altogether. Similar with any businesses, when it reaches a certain level it can't move on with the same level of growth. Point of diminshing return as it is called. That point will come I believe.
I just cannot imagine million bucks property in the medium term for the ordinary folks unless you're in Zimbabwe!
Obviously we're not interested what happens in the next 100 yrs or so but what will happen in our lifetime at least.
Whitegoods etc is a totaly different field, all the retailers have been ripping us off for years, there actually making huge markups on all home appliances etc 200 300% markups and we have just come threw a economy crisis so there is not as many people throwing there money at these items so thats why you are seeing lots of sales on, but still at the end of the day there still making good profits, when you pay $2000 for your plasma they probably paid $700 for it even less, it is only a bit of plastic, you buy it and they make more, you buy a new house and they build another one but thats if its economical and at the moment it is not so flash because council are very greedy and everyone has there hand out for the peice of the pie and it leaves nothing in it for the developer so he doesn't build plus there may be no more land to build so these are only some of the reasons prices will carry on going uppppp
fWord wrote:Heheh…I was reading the first post of this old thread and thought to myself that hindsight is a wonderful thing. If I had bought anything, ANYTHING at all during Mar/ April last year instead of sitting on the fence waiting for property to collapse, I would have made lots of money by now. During that time however I indulged in dinner conversation about the potential crash of the property market considering the abysmal share market conditions around the same period, a mistake indeed.I wound up buying something in August, under the fiery heat of incredible competition, probably overpaying in the process just to get my first home…now perhaps THAT was actually the wrong time to buy because interest rates started to go on the up and up soon after settlement.
Yes, hindsight is a wonderful thing.
HEHHE I love it, I do remember lots of these posts around a year ago and people were not sure on what to do and they were scared to buy property and they were running, I ran in the oposite direction and bought the bargains no one wanted. made more money in the last 18 months than I did in the previous 6 years
We've heard too much talk about property price going up property price going down kind of prediction.
believe it or not, even the chinese BBQ pork store owner near our train station is trying to give me advice on 'how the property market will go'. with this mini boom we just experienced, all of a sudden everyone becomes an expert in property investing!
whatever goes up will goes down and whatever goes down will goes up. as for properties, so far in australia market, the general trend is up in long term. please note, it is "general trend so far in long term".
for a smart investor, there's good deals in any market. I am more interested in getting my own experience in these good deals that are not solely dependent on capital gain rather than trying to predict where the market will go.
it is education and experience make us rich, not the 'market'.
just my thought. good luck with everyone who is looking for a crystal ball!dbliss wrote:Hindsight is a wonderful thing!! I was keen to buy last year…but my hubby insisted that we wait until the end of the FHOG…prices would fall he said….hmmmmm………still waiting for THAT to happen!!I was guttered when they put the FHBG up, if they did not do this there would have been more deals around but then again the country would have been looking quite shabby right now.
I also thought prices may have dropped a bit after the grant dropped but with interest rates low it could only really do one thing,
so thats why the best thing to do was keep buying and don't stop
You must be logged in to reply to this topic. If you don't have an account, you can register here.
