http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,25104367-462,00.html
Ohh Crashy ? Where are you ? I thought you said the Bottom was 4 months ago, How are all those people you helped going with there retirement funds ?
I hope you don't plan on retiring for at least the next 10-15 years because that's how long it will be before we see the highs again….
Heading for ASX 2500, At what point are people going to realize they need to pull out ?
I said it at least a year ago or more, Pull out of stocks and switch to gold, You could have made 300% since 2002, Can anyone tell me there portfolio is up 300% since 2002 ?
But just like it always happens, People don't switch lanes until the trend is almost over and they end up getting squashed and loosing everything.
But don't worry, Your certainly not the first person, I warned more then one bullish stock investor to pull out a year ago, He is down 50% where I'm up 30%
You would think that older investors in there 50's would be able to predict this stuff better then a 21 year old, What is going on ? Perhaps many of them are in the same mindset as everyone else who is swept away from the boom mentality, Just because we have experienced 18 years of strong growth does not mean…
"OOOOO, but this time it is different"
I might be stating the obvious, however we will only know where the bottom is with the benefit of hindsight and the retrospectoscope. I agree with much you say. We may be at bottom and trend sideways with volatile swings or we may have further falls.
I bailed the last of my holdings last June. I currently own no stocks. I'm sitting on my hands waiting to refi a couple of fixed IP loans coming up later this year and will likely continue to hold cash…….poor return but capital preservation is king at present. I may add a couple of doors to one of my holdings to enhance yields….depends on bank's sentiments and willingness to loan for such. We have falling interest rates and concurrently falling LVR's. It is wise to keep portfolio LVR's skinny in this environment, say less than 70 %, preferably round 50-60 %. Gives a buffer for any further softening in values. Now is not the time to be aggressive, unless opportunity comes along and lending can be conservative. There should be some decent pickings later this year and into next year.
We also however cannot be sure that the next highs will be as far as 10-15 years away. To be sure we my have higher highs at that time than now, however in keeping my strategy going forward as basic as possible…….buy a rising share and sell a falling one. I will be more vigilant with stop losses going forward and will be starting by going long and simple.
Good luck everyone
Retrospective,
Your exactly right ! So in my opinion its pretty simple, Stay away from the stocks until there losses become retrospective ! its as simple as that really
You where right to liquidate but at the same time I think people should be very cautious of the losses concerning there paper money through the coming inflation, Its just historical fact that every paper currency has eventually become worthless and collapsed until its replaced with a new fiat currency, So its not a matter of if, But when..
Now considering the current times and a few serious points I need to mention:
1: that never before in history have we had a Credit bubble burst before (Don't argue with me and say we have, There where no Credit Cards and 50x Leveraged derivatives during the great depression)
2: Never before in history have we had so many bubbles spaced so close to each other, Previous bubbles that have burst and Bubbles that may not quite yet appear to exist, From the 2000 tech bubble, to the current Credit and Housing Bubbles. Also there are bubbles that will potentially burst very soon in the future if they haven't already, They are the Oil-Energy bubble and the Environment bubble (no, Not the made up global warming propaganda, I'm referring to Non renewable resources that supports the Exponential growth of our economy) Also there is the baby boomer demographic that People should research, then the final bubble that we are fast approaching is the world population bubble…About 10 billion, Once we hit this limit that we are fast approaching, What will happen to an economy that runs of the premise of exponential growth of Resources/Energy/Population, And NO, Don't even reply with "Well… we could put a solar panel on…." NO that's not going to work, Even if we changed to say 100% Nuclear electricity That would only bring our oil dependence down say 15% or so…
But that's a whole topic on itself, The point is that we will be heading into the future of immense Inflation and anyone who denies this has there head in the sand, Australia in terms of the world economic crisis is years behind the rest of the world and we have already inflated our currency by 52 billion, Imagine how big the future so called "Stimulus" packages will be…. If you don't believe me you can look up yourself and view 30+ cases of Hyperinflation
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation
Its the duty of every investor to protect there hard earned wealth by the coming inflation, Don't become a statistic of middle aged people who will totally loose there retirement in the economic storm.
Thank you
…now… where are the spelling gestapo ? lol
hbbehrendorff,
Lucky for me I moved my super into cash in November 2007 the month before the crash started, so yes I'm laughing, but sad for all my mates that didn't listen to me, some did and are happy as Larry.
However, I did start another super with shares shortly after and it is bad, but, I look at it as long term and its not a major thing, I am now investing hard into shares, and believe it will recover to some extent, it only has to go up slightly and will make good.
House prices will now start falling faster just watch, guaranteed, bet on it. (cheap houses don't count for first home buyers ). So don't buy property. …..wait and watch it drop…..you will be so happy you did.Did I read somewhere that Warren Buffet was quietly selling down and taking a profit before it all crashed…… I remember people saying that he only buys and holds and never sells. Sounds like Buy Hold and Pray to me….. I would rather hold for a term then sell and take a profit than hold forever and lose equity.
What does everyone think about that so you can be a investor/trader!
The stock market is just a Casino, Nothing more, the mainstream media along with the so called "Experts" have taught us over generations that the way to make money is to buy and hold… Nothing could be further from the truth…
Pressing the buy button is only half the game, You should be pressing the sell button just as often as the buy button….
Now the people who have been taught for decades to only play half the game will sink with the ship…
I just can't see hyper inflation happening in Australia. Of course, that must mean I'm an idiot. I couldn't possibly have a different opinion than you and be a sane rational human being.
By the definition you linked to, hyperinflation is a "cumulative inflation rate over 3 years of 100%". The current inflation rate is less than 3%, and dropping. I looked at all the countries who have suffered hyperinflation on that list. There were a lot of Eastern European countries suffering after the two world wars, and a lot of tinpot dictatorships. I didn't see too many world powers.And by the way, congratulations for using an apostrophe correctly. Baby steps…
Thankfully we switched into shorts over a year ago and am still sitting pretty.
Technically we have further to fall and 2800 wont be far away.
Dont you love the fact that you can still make money when the market falls in value.
Richard Taylor | Australia's leading private lender
doubledown trent wrote:I just can't see hyper inflation happening in Australia. Of course, that must mean I'm an idiot. I couldn't possibly have a different opinion than you and be a sane rational human being.
By the definition you linked to, hyperinflation is a "cumulative inflation rate over 3 years of 100%". The current inflation rate is less than 3%, and dropping. I looked at all the countries who have suffered hyperinflation on that list. There were a lot of Eastern European countries suffering after the two world wars, and a lot of tinpot dictatorships. I didn't see too many world powers.And by the way, congratulations for using an apostrophe correctly. Baby steps…
Sir, We don't have 3% inflation, We have not had inflation that low for many decades.
The RBA forgot to inform you that in the calculation of inflation they use three tools to manipulate the real figure: substitution, weighting, and hedonics.
Increasing prices is the end result of monetary expansion….
"Most of us think of inflation as rising prices, but that’s not quite right. Inflation is not caused by rising prices. Rising prices are a symptom of inflation. Inflation is caused by the presence of too much money in relation to goods and services. What we experience is things going up in price, but in fact, inflation is really the value of your money going down, simply because there’s too much of it around. Inflation is, everywhere and always, a monetary phenomenon. "
Do you think the magical creation of 52 billion new dollars which will be released into the economy will result in Inflation or Deflation ?
How about 3% interest rates ? Do you think that promotes inflation or deflation ?
From the RBA website, "Inflation is a measure of the change (increase) in the general level of prices." I agree it's not caused by rising prices, but it's the measure of rising prices.
The influx of $52b, taken on it's own would be inflationary, but this ignores all the other factors at play in the economy at the moment. The tightening of credit, people losing their jobs and refusing to spend are factors which mitigate somewhat the influx of all this cash.
I recommend you watch this course in economics, I have been studying economics for many years now and even I where unfamiliar with some of his material… I have yet to come across a better collection of information…
Hi
interesting… an accountant told me just 2 wks back that he was told by a contact that their research pointed to the ASX falling to around 2800, and that is supposed to be the bottom it can go.
Did not really believe the accountant initially, seeing how the ASX sat pretty at around 3400 for wks… with more bad news coming in and now that the ASX has hovering around 3300, I am starting to wonder.
Does not matter… still putting in offers for IPs as we deem fit.Regards
Daniel LeeDoes anyone know where on the net I can access spot price data for not only individual securities, but also things like gold? My client has access to a spot price graph that he can draw trend lines on. The graph can be zoomed in and out to different periods of time, and is in real time for Australian markets. It may be a paid data subscription service. It is the sort of thing a trader would use, short or long term trades as it is so flexible re its time window.
I'd love to have a play.
Try bloombergs (by subscription)
hbbehrendorff,
I have completed the crash course. Not really anything about economic theory ( elasticity of demand etc ), but a very informative audio / video lessons. I was aware of most of it, but it is very scary, would have hoped for a more comprehensive summary of what needs to be done, but I suppose it's more up to each individual to think about their own circumstances and react. Now I have to think about all that was shown and how I can react for my situation, some of it has small flaws in the details ( not taking substitution into consideration for example or new technology or finds – I know technology is not a source ). Thanks again for link. I recommend people see it and watch the complete series.
Thanks IP freely.
ASX Currently trading at 3451.9
Don't listen to the "experts" this is not the bottom, They where wrong in the past, and they are wrong now…
Take this opportunity to get out of the market while you can, It may be your last chance, No one knows how many more rally's we will have in this bull market, And the fundamentals are all wrong.
Sell now, Don't wait until the market violently drops again and then use that as an excuse for not selling, Take action now.
I love it how you can all see into the future!! Can somebody please tell me where I can get a crystal ball from, like you all seem to have…
dan1114,
Its a forum, we are here to give our optinions and try to help others. If we are correct then that's great, if we are wrong , then you can tell us about it, hbbehrendoff must be congradulated for making a brave call, he maybe wrong, but that's fine. At least he is giving reasons for his call, he may save people lots of money ?I got my Crystal Ball from a packet of Kellogs corn flakes, So far my crystal ball has out predicted the ones the experts have.
Also, If people listened to me over a year ago, There super would be up 30%, Not down 50% in the stock market.
I also said property would fall at least 10% last year, While the experts said it would not, In fact many where screaming at you telling you to buy before the next big boom and you could not afford to get into the market anymore…. (now that's what I call fear mongering)
ohh yeh, I almost forgot, property fell 8% last year… and thats even with the government manipulation (first home buyers grant 21k)
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