Just a thought – is property the answer or is just a method to get wealthy that happens for a few?
Im asking this question, because how many people here in the forum are financially free from property or know someone that is? Are there alot or alittle?
Now the market has, how can i put this (well gone to the dogs, great time to buy by the way) and mr average joe and his wife are wondering what happened to their property plan of 1 house every year for the next 15 years then sell up and retire rich and happy, what is going to happen to them? (There are people out there doing this).
This down market happened in japan, its been going on for last ten years and hasnt recovered (the forgotten decade I think they call it), can it happen here too, maybe, maybe not ?.Oh and their jobs are at risk too, cause no ones buying anything (except at xmas thanks to the extra 1000 from the gov) and because the company is going to build a factory in china or india? because they work for less, and work twice as hard.
Oh and did i mention mr joe average have now lost half their super that they have been saving !!!!, because maybe that was the answer too and it was safe, their financial advisor said so. He also told them to buy some apartments off the plan as part of their strategy (maybe at newington), did he mention his commison to them, 50K is quite a lot, he seemed to forget that bit!!!
Maybe shares is the answer? its just a correction after all!!!! didnt you know its long term??
Maybe the govement will look after us all, not likely they dont have enough cash to fund our pensions!!, they spent it all and all the baby boomers are retiring so less taxes.
What is the answer, im not sure, ive just been thinking about this lately and maybe other people have too, no point having our heads in the sand?
Is there better returns in business?, is google, is ebay the answer, maybe ill open up a cafe (no much competion there), or buy a franchise so i can lose all my money and become westfields rent bitch?.
I dont belive it is a crisis, but there has to be some great ideas on how to turn this around personally, any ideas?, love to hear everyones thoughts.
As many have said before. There are always reasons NOT to buy property. And sure if you made a decision on investing that is based on what is happening now you would never ever think about buying a property. But property has worked for many over the last 10,20, 30, years.So its odds on that once this passes property will continue to work as an investment.Even if you bought one property that became cashflow neutral so you could hold it at no cost. Come retirement you would have either a nice big slab of cash to spend away or some rent to top up your super. That cant be bad.
As for the argument that there are better investment choices out there. Well im not going to argue that one as i dont know enough to comment. But property is proven to be a winner over the long term. Thats enough for me to go against the what ifs and have a go.
On a side note the old argument that its better to rent that pops up all the time. This would be true( Although its getting close now) if people saved the difference and invested it in other ways. How many people actually do that. Buying a PPOR can be looked at as forced saving and then can be used to buy other properties. This is also a good thing.
In this slump its hard to look at property in a positive light. Believe me i struggle at times when the gloomy boys put foward good arguments that are hard to argue. But i just trust that in time property will continue to work as an investment.It may not but i am atleast going to give it a go as doing nothing means you have a 100% chance of faliure.
pipelinebuilder,
Good posting. I think many many people are thinking the same as you.
Personally, I think I was lucky to get into property as it was rising, and have enjoyed the large rises in values over the last two decades. Thus , to answer your question on has anyone enough properties to support them in retirement – then yes.
But, most of my gains are from value increases, not rent, it is only a help for repaying loans, it is never going to make you rich, it is the gain in values of the properties that give you wealth. BUT, I think this is a road to wealth from days gone by, it is not relevent to people starting out today. Whilst devo 76 is correct with regards to getting properties that will at least reach neutral and then positive as time goes past, it is a very slow process and you need to start young if you are ever going to make real gains. It is also not the best for tax purposes once you go positive and with tax rates so low now, negetive gearing is not a good tactic.
We all need to realize that yesterday and back 30 years is the past, and whilst the past can be a guide to the future, I think that maybe the next 30 years is not going to be like the last, we need a new approach to investing. However, I do not have the answer and probably no one else has it either, things will change much quicker into the future, countries will crash, the weather will get worse, diseases will increase, wars will increase, I think I will just shoot myself…….bang…………..
This is an interesting thread. I've been thinking similar thoughts (minus the shooting myself, thankfully).
When you hear about people who have made alot of money somehow, be it business, property, shares, whatever, they all seem to have a few things in common. They were all in the right place, at the right time, with the right knowledge, and the guts to have a go. There, in alot of cases, was a fair bit of luck. Some were handed small inheritances that they invested wisely and turned into great wealth. Some happened to be living in Perth 15 years ago and happened to buy a property and got swept up in the market, almost unintentionally ( but were smart enough to recognise what was going on and cash in). Some had some brilliant, niche business idea and added to their idea, solid business practices. When you read their stories, it seems to me that there is no single one way of getting rich. Horses for Courses. Different things have worked for different people. We make alot more out of our current business than we do out of our rental. We've made much better returns out of a small herd of cattle than anything else. We are simply better positioned to make money out of cattle than out of real estate. I have a client making good money from trading silver.So where is the next boom? Where is the next massive demand for professional services going to be? What will be the next booming commodity? How will the needs and wants and buying capacity of the population shift over the next 10, 20 years and what opportunities will it create? I have a few ideas, but I don't know how to educate myself fast enough to be competitive in the areas I see emerging.
One thing is clear, the government loves to spend money and government contracts can be lucrative. We are doing well out of one, and I have some friends who have made themselves very wealthy holding contracts related to remote aboriginal communities. Other friends just happened to get into labour hire in the mining industry about 15 years ago. They now call themselves "unemployed" – and it's just the sort of unemployed I'd like to be, touring the world and Australia and having a fat time of it all.
All of the people who I know personally who have made themselves wealthy have done so through business. They have all helped themselves along the way with additional investments in property (maybe one or two negatively geared properties that have had excellent cap gains).
The secret? I don't know. But I reckon, having an enquiring and athletic mind, a taste for pressure, a love of the game, and strong financial goals must all be part of it. Becoming well informed, understanding the basic economics at work and the emerging trends. Having enough equity to do something when something worthwhile comes along. Being prepared to ditch the safety of employment and strike it out on your own. Starting before your have children. Ask me in another 40 years if I am right. We're doing ok for our age.
I myself have been getting frustrated in not been able to figure out a way to make money on Real Estate. I have one friend though who is an options trader, and he has actually done quite well out of the Crisis. (1st with his Put options a contract giving the right to sell at a certain price, so after the crash he can buy the stock for dirt cheap and then use the contract to sell them for a higher price) on the US financials. You can also make money out of CFDs and Futures trading (however do your homework before throwing your money in!! If you don’t I can guarantee you will lose your money.
One thing that is important to know about trading is that the market does not have to be going up for you to be able to make money! You just have to correctly forecast which direction it is going!
However Options, Futures or CFD trading is not investing in the true sense as you always need to be watching it, and modifying your positions. Its almost like a second job, but it is no where near as hard as your main job.
As far as a long term, low maintenance investment that are safe I reckon it is worth looking up “Covered Calls” After learning what they are you will think people are mad for buying shares with out the protection they offer.
It is a bit in depth, but long story short you can buy shares, with protection from a crash, and also get a monthly income from them (plus the dividends you would be getting anyway). It is a lot of homework, but so is property.
Anyway just another option to consider.
Pipelinebuilder
"Just a thought – is property the answer or is just a method to get wealthy that happens for a few?"This is more than just a thought its a reality, a trueism. Ive only met 3 people that will always tell you that you will make money on property, the Vendor, the Agent and the Mortgage broker. There is no consistent correlation between the prices of houses going up and making money or more importantly a net profit after tax on them. Granted we have seen some great gains from 2000 to 2006 the old "double your money " days are gone. However, currently most Vendors are still are under the old "double your money " mentality in particular those that brought say 2 years ago. Yesterday I called on an agent. I told him it was my opinion that houses purchased 18 month ago would not bring any more that what they paid for them, he agree totally. Very happy to take my offers. So, 18 months of no growth, plus loan interest, stamp duty, rates, maintenance, selling costs. Even if you where renting it out and it was naturally geared, you still loose.
On $350,000 you would be out of pocket by say $15,000 stamp plus the selling costs about $9,000. Some people call that an investment.Many other factors come into buying property, if its your PPOR, Opportunity costs, if you have the cash or you need to borrow, your expectations, cash flow, socio economic changes in your live and the market, etc etc. Its like the couple who open a cafe with the mentality of "people always have to eat" believe me you have to pour a lot of coffee before you cover the rent. "People will always need some where to live." This is true, but not a guarantee for an investment. Just have a look at whats happening in our great country, people 55 to 60 are now returning to the work force, why, because they have no money to retire on. Mum chucks the 2 kids in a child minding centre at 7.00am to 5.00pm so she can go to work because if she does not work, they cant pay. More older people retuning to work less jobs for the young 25s to pay that 400,000 back to the bank. Unemployment on the way up. If you want a good investment for the future make it an Education a Degree.
The growth we have seen is not sustainable and most times is followed by a correction its those that brought 2 or 3 years back that have to sell that will loose big time.
As mentioned property is a long term thing, you will make some money long term. I think of it this way average house say $330,000 + stamp & other $350,00 (only an average house) interest only pa. @ 5% = 17,500 / 52 = $336 per week, living costs food, petrol, utilities $350 minimum. Total $686. Principal & Interest is $471.80 per week. and this if over 25 years. So you start out with an investment idea at 25 you get to 50 and have paid $263,326 in interest. Total cost of your 25 year old plus home is $613,326 with no maintenance. If it was to double every 7 years you would have to sell it for $2,146,641. Now this is not profit its gross and not likely, forget about historical figures. Providing you can keep 2 wages coming in, a job, not get pregnant, get ill, or need to shift for work, interest rates stay at 5% over 25 years (not likely) Think about it. This is a slog, a struggle, a real sacrifice, a near impossibility that will take its toll on owners & disillusioned investors. This is provided you do it at 25yo not 35 or 40.WJ
"However, I do not have the answer and probably no one else has it either, things will change much quicker into the future, countries will crash, the weather will get worse, diseases will increase, wars will increase, I think I will just shoot myself…….bang………….."
WJ the world is indeed a changing place and I'm afraid its not for the better. I like you, and all others inc. K Rudd & Co. don't have the answer. People are becoming desperate. However, I would not shoot myself just yet. If you have a few bucks left hang on to it for a while. A lot more sh – t will indeed hit the fan in the next few years as our Government has no idea what to do, except throw money at people, until its all gone then run us into a debt (this is their answer) . There goes my old age pension. The market has softened and prices have come down, I would say from the above example must come down, as a buyer of a PPOR, there still may be hope. As an investor I would look at other limited options in a recessed economy. As the Government is so keen on immigration "people smuggling" may be the a growth market, invest in hydroponic equipment and grow dope to sell to depressed investors to cheer them up or we could print our own money, to stimulate the economy. lol……..Cheers
T…………………
Great post SHales
There is no get rich quick scheme.
It's all about hard work and research
Tony B,
Funny how we all seem to be thinking the same thing isn't it?
In that case we should all be able to solve the financial crisis by tomorrow, maybe !Maybe we should all place our brainstorming up for comments ?
WJ Hooker wrote:Maybe we should all place our brainstorming up for comments ?OK, you first.
Sorry to be such a cynic, but I hesitate to share the few ideas I have with a bunch of other people looking for their lucky break, and hundreds of guest visitors to the forum. I'd love to share if I could overcome my fear and greed…. sound familiar?
STony B wrote:Just have a look at whats happening in our great country, people 55 to 60 are now returning to the work force, why, because they have no money to retire on. Mum chucks the 2 kids in a child minding centre at 7.00am to 5.00pm so she can go to work because if she does not work, they cant pay.The growth we have seen is not sustainable and most times is followed by a correction its those that brought 2 or 3 years back that have to sell that will loose big time.
If it was to double every 7 years you would have to sell it for $2,146,641. Now this is not profit its gross and not likely, forget about historical figures. Providing you can keep 2 wages coming in, a job, not get pregnant, get ill, or need to shift for work, interest rates stay at 5% over 25 years (not likely) Think about it. This is a slog, a struggle, a real sacrifice, a near impossibility that will take its toll on owners & disillusioned investors. This is provided you do it at 25yo not 35 or 40.WJ the world is indeed a changing place and I'm afraid its not for the better.
I took snippets of your post Tony B – though it was all reasonable.
Wether or not it is changing for the better depends on your POV, doesn't it? All of those things that you mention are not good things and most of them are the result of over speculation, unformed investment/credit/purchasing and greed. The changing world could lead to changing ideologies on these fronts.
Imagine it, Mum's actually raising their kids again, young tradies learning the ropes through discipline, houses being built properly… I know it all sounds so impossible.
But heres the thing, I read more and more of property Bulls becoming moderate and I realize that the first of many small steps are being taken.
ummester wrote:Tony B wrote:Just have a look at whats happening in our great country, people 55 to 60 are now returning to the work force, why, because they have no money to retire on. Mum chucks the 2 kids in a child minding centre at 7.00am to 5.00pm so she can go to work because if she does not work, they cant pay.The growth we have seen is not sustainable and most times is followed by a correction its those that brought 2 or 3 years back that have to sell that will loose big time.
If it was to double every 7 years you would have to sell it for $2,146,641. Now this is not profit its gross and not likely, forget about historical figures. Providing you can keep 2 wages coming in, a job, not get pregnant, get ill, or need to shift for work, interest rates stay at 5% over 25 years (not likely) Think about it. This is a slog, a struggle, a real sacrifice, a near impossibility that will take its toll on owners & disillusioned investors. This is provided you do it at 25yo not 35 or 40.WJ the world is indeed a changing place and I'm afraid its not for the better.
I took snippets of your post Tony B – though it was all reasonable.
Wether or not it is changing for the better depends on your POV, doesn't it? All of those things that you mention are not good things and most of them are the result of over speculation, unformed investment/credit/purchasing and greed. The changing world could lead to changing ideologies on these fronts.
Imagine it, Mum's actually raising their kids again, young tradies learning the ropes through discipline, houses being built properly… I know it all sounds so impossible.
But heres the thing, I read more and more of property Bulls becoming moderate and I realize that the first of many small steps are being taken.
A change sounds like a nice idea. But do we think this is a change or just the general sentiment of a population in a slump. Unfortunately we tend to have very short memories and im sure as things improve the same mistakes will be made again. So i guess it all depends on where you stand. Do you take the moral high ground and refuse to get caught up in assets values rising to fast(No one will say no to equity when it is handed to them on a plate). Or do you position yourself to make the most of it next time around. Who knows where we will be in ten years.
SHales,
Just got back onto site….Forgotten my train of thought….OK if its brainstorming for the financial crisis for Australia then here goes ( remember its brainstorming so you are not suppost to think about what you write just let it flow ). I'll try to be brief and not get carried away.
1. No dole money just coupons
2 .No work then work for the dole coupons
3. Everyone working gets a tax reduction
4. Sack state governments
5. All school kids to do financial literacy courses
6. Send all no hopers to Alice Springs ( sorry nothing against Alice Springs )
7. All criminals to work
8. Reintroduce conscription
9. No money for single mums – just coupons.
10. Payment up front for doctors ( small fee ) and dentist ( small fee ) rest covered by medicare for working people.
11. Mass production of solar cells, compulsory solar cells and solar hot water to all new houses creating jobs.
12. New dams built, compulsory recycling of water.
13. Massive tree plantings and public transport infrustructor projects.
14. Relocate all our farms to Northern Australia.That will do for a start. Next please.
WJ Hooker wrote:1. No dole money just coupons
4. Sack state governments
8. Reintroduce conscription
9. No money for single mums – just coupons.
11. Mass production of solar cells, compulsory solar cells and solar hot water to all new houses creating jobs.
12. New dams built, compulsory recycling of water.
13. Massive tree plantings and public transport infrustructor projects.
That will do for a start. Next please.I cut your list to those likely to occur, with some ammendments.
1. Is closer than many believe. Not coupons but 50% controlled payments. Hard part is policing the store owners.
4. Is in the pipelines. State governments will not be disbanded, however. More likely rolled into the Federal banner or local councils that will report directly to the Fed. Govt.
8. Outside of Australia's control. Depends on what happens with US/Afghanistan/Iraq/Isreal/Palestine and others. A possibility.
9. Hand in hand with 1. Same thing for aged pension.
11. Wishful thinking. Plan is too long term and governement isn't thinking that way… yet.
12. See 4 & 11.
13 Will occur faster than 4,11 & 12.devo76 wrote:A change sounds like a nice idea. But do we think this is a change or just the general sentiment of a population in a slump. Unfortunately we tend to have very short memories and im sure as things improve the same mistakes will be made again. So i guess it all depends on where you stand. Do you take the moral high ground and refuse to get caught up in assets values rising to fast(No one will say no to equity when it is handed to them on a plate). Or do you position yourself to make the most of it next time around. Who knows where we will be in ten years.True. But it is a good bet that is is long term this time like the 30s. After the 30's it took the 40s, 50s, 60s and 70s before greed truly corrupted the functioning of society again. 80's led to the 90's which led to now, in an exponential fashion. Sure, one can argue it was growing again before the 80's but not to the extent where it outwieghed reason or social/governemnt control.
ummester wrote:devo76 wrote:A change sounds like a nice idea. But do we think this is a change or just the general sentiment of a population in a slump. Unfortunately we tend to have very short memories and im sure as things improve the same mistakes will be made again. So i guess it all depends on where you stand. Do you take the moral high ground and refuse to get caught up in assets values rising to fast(No one will say no to equity when it is handed to them on a plate). Or do you position yourself to make the most of it next time around. Who knows where we will be in ten years.True. But it is a good bet that is is long term this time like the 30s. After the 30's it took the 40s, 50s, 60s and 70s before greed truly corrupted the functioning of society again. 80's led to the 90's which led to now, in an exponential fashion. Sure, one can argue it was growing again before the 80's but not to the extent where it outwieghed reason or social/governemnt control.
So i guess you could say that fear after any big bust will lead to the next boom. What we need to do is to get back into normal long term growth patterns as quick as we can. A long period of flat or no growth will only set things up for the mad rush at the end.But i guess this is the nature of our population. We know what should happen but it rarely happens that way.This is why boom and bust periods have been around for so long in so many aspects of life.Steady growth would be nice but i hate to admit it, we do act like sheep and i cant see this changing.At the moment people are scared but as soon as good times return and people see upward movement in prices it will be a rush again.
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WJ,
OK, brainstorming. Had to agree with alot that you said. I'll add:
1: Open further university placements, particularly in the sciences so we don't have to import any more half educated, non english speaking doctors. I'm sure we've got plenty of great Australian kids to train, they just can't all achieve the ridiculously high benchmark for entering medicine, and meanwhile we import substandard doctors from overseas. Our aging population is going to require increasing levels of medical care, and I can only imagine that if there were more doctors, medical care mightn't be quite as expensive.
2: As to removing state govt. Nice idea, but even though I hate the QLD govt (my state), I do like the fact that the Federal govt is not the be all and end all. I like the fact that power is distributed. Checks and balances like Howard used to say. I'd support radical reform of the govt structure, to reduce beauracracy and corruption (of which I believe there is a fair amount, particularly at the local govt level). I'd support federal control over health, education etc.
3: Create a seperate country and ship all the labor lovers and dolies over there and leave them to it.
4: Can middle class welfare and replace with tax cuts.
5: CAn the FHOG.
6: Scrap drought interest rebates (Fed govt pays interest for drought stricken farmes) and transport and feedstuff rebates
7: Tax families as a unit (this would be hard to police), rather than as two individuals.
8: Open uranium mining nationally.
9: Develop policy that ensures Australia produces sufficient food to support ourselves.
10. Open additional agricultural land in Northern Australia so that the country may grow ethanol fuels without losing food producing capacity.
11. Somehow remove the insidious influence that the green movement has over Government.
12. Primary industry should be brought into the emissions trading scheme, and carbon farming should be made a real part of that scheme (carbon can be sequestered into the ground by specific farming practices (which also happen to enhance production), but this is not at the moment recognised by the (draft?) legislation.Maybe we should start our own political party… We could have lots of self interested initiatives too, like zero tax on capital gains…
SHere's my two cents, for what it';s worth.
1. Totally agree with scrapping state governments. We are over regulated, and to remove a layer of government would be a great idea, saving money and freeing people from red tape.
2. Cut a raft of state govt taxes, such as all stamp duties, payroll tax, etc.
2. As Shales said, tax the family as a group.
3. Increase the tax free threshold, making it more beneficial for people to get back into the workforce.
4. Cut all the Howard middle class welfare bribes. The Mature Age Workers Offset is a disgrace. Get rid of it.
5. Conscription will NEVER happen. In fact, i'd cut a percentage of defence spending, no more $10m planes or submarines. Let's do with what we have, for a while anyway.
6. Cut the number of senators from 12 for each state to 6. This will cut down on costs, and reduce the likelihood of Senator X or Charlie Church getting enough votes.
Thanks for input doubledown trent,
My conscription message was more to get young people used to disipline and taking orders etc . Agree with scrapping the astronomical costs associated with buying submarines, planes, etc ( lots of corruption in that market and politicians making the decision so has to be wrong – just look at the crap American planes they buy which are slow more expensive cannot hold as much weapons etc as one built in Russia or even Israel ).SHales – like your ideas. can't help but notice they are from a outback point of view which is great.
ps I wanted to say ship the no hopers to Afganistan. It's just great when you leave home in the morning and notice the yobbo's from the housing commission areas have gone around and tipped all the bins over.
I'm sure we should email K. Rudd & Co. with all these brilliant ideas, however I head the other day he is out of the country, I believe Costa Rica. I better contribute to the brilliance:
1: STOP IMIGRATION
2: More uni. & TAFE places & free or cheaper post grad. study.
3: STOP STAMP DUTY. for FHB only (sorry folks) reduce it for investors.
4: Conscription for long term unemployed, or a dole pay back system, when you get a job you have to pay back 30% of the dole you drew on. If no job after 1 year compulsory study & retraining and or the Military.
5: More Police.
6: FHOG only available to Aust. Citizen not P.R. on 2 passports, Must have lived & paying tax in Aust. for more that 4 years. Not 2 minute.
7: Better medical & dental ( I pay a shit load of tax in real terms) but cant get to see a doctor. SHales I could not agree more. In fact it is an embarrisment. Last time I went to a bulk billing practice I took a Lonely Planet Phrase book. When I was asked "which doctor would you like to see" I did not expect to see a Witch doctor.7: Prisoners made to work for the community. It cost 80,000 p.a. to keep 1 on the inside. Get them out doing anything, fruit picking, cleaning public toilets, building, brick laying. A storage of free labour and we pay them to sit on there ass, feed them, house them, entertain them, no way, lets put them to work. I'm sure some would agree and like to learn a new trade.
8: Government to clamp down on the real tax cheats. The filthy rich paying little or on tax and the working class doing it hard and paying it all.
9: Stricter Child support. If you father a child don't expect me to pay for it. You play you pay. I know many people that juggle their finance to avoid child support payments.
10: Jail time for welfare cheats.
11: More & better public transport.Only a few of my personal ideas. I'm afraid this great country may come to an end and we have seen the bet of it. It will be economic survival of the fittest. Stuff you jack I got mine. A divide in the class structure, the haves and the have not and the will never have. Any way my next post will be from Costa Rica, See ya.
Regards
T……………
On $350,000 you would be out of pocket by say $15,000 stamp plus the selling costs about $9,000. Some people call that an investment.
As mentioned property is a long term thing, you will make some money long term. I think of it this way average house say $330,000 + stamp & other $350,00 (only an average house) interest only pa. @ 5% = 17,500 / 52 = $336 per week, living costs food, petrol, utilities $350 minimum. Total $686. Principal & Interest is $471.80 per week. and this if over 25 years. So you start out with an investment idea at 25 you get to 50 and have paid $263,326 in interest. Total cost of your 25 year old plus home is $613,326 with no maintenance. If it was to double every 7 years you would have to sell it for $2,146,641. Now this is not profit its gross and not likely, forget about historical figures. Providing you can keep 2 wages coming in, a job, not get pregnant, get ill, or need to shift for work, interest rates stay at 5% over 25 years (not likely) Think about it. This is a slog, a struggle, a real sacrifice, a near impossibility that will take its toll on owners & disillusioned investors.
This is provided you do it at 25yo not 35 or 40.
lol……..
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