Bill Gates believes the world is in for a 10 year recession,
There is lots of data being complied by lots of people what are your beliefs to what is happening and what advise would you be giving today …
In all of this I believe that real estate is still a good investment but not in what we have been preaching over the last 10 years …
D
I guess this is good for me as i would like to retire in 20 years at the earliest. Plenty of time to set myself up .
devo76 wrote:I guess this is good for me as i would like to retire in 20 years at the earliest. Plenty of time to set myself up .You should be right. If not, it is going to be real mad max stuff and how much money you have be the least of anyones worries:)
It's all the boomers leaving the workforce over the next 10 years that will be the problem (and everyone elses future burden) as their super and other investments are likely shot to hell.
the reason for the bleak outlooks ( and remember that guys like B. Gates are the real smart people, not idiot property spruikers ) is simple : All the money for the next 40 years has been spent already.
All your children are born bankrupt, you will be expected to work till you're 75 just to repay your debts and property will halve in price. Many property investors will go bust and these will need to be bailed out, this comes from taxes mainly. Banks will fall in Australia and will need to be bailed out too. This also comes from taxes.
Those who saved will be much better off than those who spent their money on a house of cards.My thoughts:
I don't believe in a global 10 year recession, but a prolonged affair in most western economies and as a result emerging markets will suffer too. However, the 21st century will belong to emerging markets, yes decoupling didn't exist yet, but the growing middle classes in Brazil, India, China etc. will eventually start to drive more domestic consumption and reduce their reliance on the US as the primary consumer in the world. But it will take time.
Property will remain a good long term investment, but not as we know it. Affordability will remain an issue, combined with growing population which will lead to densification of the capital cities and a shift in generations (Gen Y wants very different things from live than baby boomers or X'ers) I think good quality medium/high density units in strategic locations will do well.
Also, in the next 10 yrs the number of 65+ers will rise from 2.8 million to about 4.0 million (in 2018). By 2028 it will be around 5.5 million, this will have a huge impact on housing demand (not necessary volume but type). Whoever figures out what this demographic group looks for in housing and caters for it efficiently will have a great opportunity to generate wealth (I don't think the answer is retirement villages as we know them). It will also create a huge business opportunity in terms of providing services.
With boomers leaving the workforce the workforce will slip in relative size (from just over 67% now to just over 65% in 10 yrs), but with an overall population growth I expect that migration will stay high, productivity will have to increase and as a result wages will increase faster than in the last decade, alleviating some of the affordability issues.
Or maybe we'll enter the biggest depression ever, which will eventually lead into WWIII and all our IPs will be bombed to rubble…
… maybe need to include a block of land to increase self sustainability!Is that the same Bill Gates that predicted we'd never need more then 640k of RAM ?
where did you hear or read that?
Interested in reading or listening to more of his beliefs
So base on that information, should i continue my pursuit in purchasing a 4×2 bedroom apartment, 1 bdr flat and a 5 bedroom which is all on one block of land with a Positive cashflow at the moment. Price tag at 1million.
Weekend FOX news …
harb wrote:Is that the same Bill Gates that predicted we'd never need more then 640k of RAM ?hahahaha, I never thought Id see that brought up on here. lmfao
…. maybe he ment to say 640gb … ? lol
Bill Gates may not be a property spruker but he is a Corporate Spruiker and he is just talking up thr defaltion thing as he has been told to.
pardon my ignorance, but after India, China and Brazil move into the western world finances (OK may take a while…) what countries back's are we riding then for our future prosperity?
Obviously not an economist!!
Bill might not be as far off the mark as you think. Take a look at these …….
Harry Dent Discusses the Coming Depression
PART 1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8sMdpuYbjBYPART 2
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9A_bIEfM1g&feature=relatedEconomic Collapse of 2009 – Greater than Great Depression of 1929
Gerald Celente of the Trends Research Institute
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTIW9mOKU4s&feature=related2009 will be the year of Total decline for US Jim Rogers
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w84EiCt0Lqk&feature=relatedVicky
Gerald Celente also predicted a lot of things that didn't happen too. I think a very deep recession is definitely coming. I mean, really, how could house prices etc just keep going up, up, up the way they have the past 20 years? Its been a period of gross consumerism and consumeristic snobbery has been everywhere as though possession were the sole measure of a person's value.
When the going gets tough, the tough and quietly resilient get going. There are millions of people in this world who own nothing and still manage to be happy and have fulfilling relationships. I think this is a time to take stock of our situation and adjust what needs adjusting because a new era is on the way. It just a shame the popular analysis of demographics (as well as a few other areas) and their affect are only just now, being thrust into our faces. Ah… looking backward is always so much more accurate than looking forward. If only…
I think that if you can consolidate your affairs and reduce the degree of leverage as much as possible it will prevent a lot of personal stress and possible hardship. I still think real estate is a good investment when compared to the volatility of the stock market. People still need somewhere to live.
This time around there is a social security and governments have learned much from the great depression and more recent recessions in other countries so how things will pan out will be interesting to say the least. Unemployment rates were above 10% in the early 80's and early 90's. I remember moral was pretty low for a lot of people in the very early 90's but things did improve after 4 years. At that time we had a new mortgage and 2 babies and both of us lost our jobs. It was tough.
bardon wrote:Bill Gates may not be a property spruker but he is a Corporate Spruiker and he is just talking up thr defaltion thing as he has been told to.He'd know all about deflation, his MS Office software has been deflating for years.
Thank you Playa …
Yes he is a friend of our solicitors and makes some sense.
If we collect information correctly we can prepare for the future armed better than unsophisticated people.
Quiet often many predictions don't come true but what if they do?
We need to remember that multimillionaires pay these people lots of money for information … don't be a tall poppy be constructive in evaluating important data.
D
Shit a 10 year ressesion i think you should all be worried and sell your properties now. And then ile come along and buy them up.
Why would you need to worry about what others think or predict.Press CTRL – ALT – DEL and select restart all will be solved !
wealth4life.com wrote:Bill Gates believes the world is in for a 10 year recession,There is lots of data being complied by lots of people what are your beliefs to what is happening and what advise would you be giving today …
In all of this I believe that real estate is still a good investment but not in what we have been preaching over the last 10 years …
D
I believe our property market could well be in for a 10 yr recession because our boom and prices being so ridiculous , plus , umm burn out . If we're not burnt out after the last 5 years spending spree we'll never be .
Dunno about other areas though . I think things will go back to normal in a year or two. Find the new and more realistic balance , prices and costs of living along with more reasonable expectations , after a thud that is , in Oz anyway . But normal just being 1/2 the pace of the last 5 or 6 years that's all and property , about 1/2 the price of 2 years ago and in some case less .
With property I don't know . I do have the belief that as long as you can buy and or sell within what you are expecting or even well under that then you are safe. Working on prices of in two years time , not now or last year .
And as backup also in only buying stuff that you can ad to in a big way . 2 for one and all that stuff !Cheers
What would steven hawkings say?
I love real estate but none the less your top paragraph is so refreshing compared to the mindset status most of the country has just come from and the last 1/2 in particular of the Howard era .
I mean preaching Australian and mateship , you've gotta be joking .
Australia lost it's compassion , heart and was turning into a monster yet right through so busy patting themselves on the back at the expense of invalids , our hospital and education system and the future of our children .
Plus some of the most ridiculous house prices in the world which is no good for anyone in the long run .The happiest people we know actually don't have much at all and live and think very simply . We were like that ourselves for a long time , mainly due to beach bumming but none the less .
As a matter of fact when I went down to Melbourne at Christmas and met up with everyone family and otherwise I haven't seen for years , I was amazed at how money minded and status symbol they'd all become . Couldn't believe it in fact – not to mention stressed , they were different people , which was becoming Australian .I reckon this is truly the recession Australia has to have , gonna hurt but it's for the best !
Cheers .
Boshy888 wrote:Gerald Celente also predicted a lot of things that didn't happen too. I think a very deep recession is definitely coming. I mean, really, how could house prices etc just keep going up, up, up the way they have the past 20 years? Its been a period of gross consumerism and consumeristic snobbery has been everywhere as though possession were the sole measure of a person's value.When the going gets tough, the tough and quietly resilient get going. There are millions of people in this world who own nothing and still manage to be happy and have fulfilling relationships. I think this is a time to take stock of our situation and adjust what needs adjusting because a new era is on the way. It just a shame the popular analysis of demographics (as well as a few other areas) and their affect are only just now, being thrust into our faces. Ah… looking backward is always so much more accurate than looking forward. If only…
I think that if you can consolidate your affairs and reduce the degree of leverage as much as possible it will prevent a lot of personal stress and possible hardship. I still think real estate is a good investment when compared to the volatility of the stock market. People still need somewhere to live.
This time around there is a social security and governments have learned much from the great depression and more recent recessions in other countries so how things will pan out will be interesting to say the least. Unemployment rates were above 10% in the early 80's and early 90's. I remember moral was pretty low for a lot of people in the very early 90's but things did improve after 4 years. At that time we had a new mortgage and 2 babies and both of us lost our jobs. It was tough.
… maybe need to include a block of land to increase self sustainability!
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