- bardon wrote:what about Peak Oil ? Anything on that ?
Peak Oil will only return when prices go above US$100 a barrel.
Peak Oil wrote:And all the rubbish that China would save our butt , what a joke with China being on one the longest and most massive rampages out doing the rest of us put together , of course it's gonna slow . I wouldn't be at all surprised if China slips in the deepest recession on record .When you say recession do you mean a real recession or a slowdown of GDP growth to 7%-8%?
I can't see the Chinese going into a real recession simply because they don't have to. With all that talk of China joining the world economies its easy to forget that banks and businesses are owned by the state who also control prices, interest rates, the currency, job creation and virtually everything else that our politicians could only dream off. And unlike our system were politicians are too scared of losing their jobs and perks if they make the hard decisions the Chinese don't have that problem.Quote:The simple facts were , Australia is just an ordinary country it's not Tuscany or the Bahamas so what possibly sustainably justifies 7 and 8 times the average wage in house prices or cost of living ?
Then the direction Howard let prices and lack of scruples on ' everything ' and everyone in this country run riot , I mean who would believe it could continue on that path with no consequence ?I don't see it as house prices being twice as expensive as they should be but rather our income being half what is should be. And while its easy to blame Howard for the current situation, specially if you are an ALP supporter, the fact is our problems began much earlier then 1996. They started in 1983 with Keating's Prices and Incomes Accord where workers gave up their right to decent wage increases in exchange for a promise by Hawke and Keating to control inflation. The workers kept their end of the bargain and got screwed while Keating came up with a new excuse and new Accord almost every year until his final Accord Mark VIII after which the voters saw him for the BS artist he was.
Quote:I've also believed for years that there is no rental crisis or housing shortage .I agree with you there is no housing shortage as such. There are plenty of vacant houses, just not in the right locations. All these people who think they are to precious to live in the outback or undesirable suburbs should be trapped while queuing at rental open houses and forcibly relocated to other areas where rental properties are available and towns are dying.
Quote:Personally I think the average Joe feels that orrr, prices are flattening , nows a great time to get a bargain for 3 or 400 k so along with FHOG they think they're doing well . Unfortunately I still think those prices will prove ridiculous in the long run.
If past history is anything to go by you could be right , those prices will prove ridiculously cheap since every recession is followed by a boom.
Quote:Because one , FH owners need a hand to even get close to in the door now – even though they shouldn't actually be buying now if they can wait but two , so much extends from the building and housing industry .
Atleast keeping those areas ticking over if nothing else surely does have to help atleast a bit. !Actually FHBs looking to buy at the very low end of the market based on price alone should have bought as soon as the increased FHOG was announced. Waiting until now just gives them less properties to pick from and the best picks gone, competition from investors hunting for CF +ve IPs and sellers less willing to negotiate the further the rates drop. The best time to buy IS when everyone else is in a panic and selling.
alani wrote:bardon wrote:what about Peak Oil ? Anything on that ?wait a couple of years when it all turns around, recessions are planned to reduce inflation to stimulate future growth. In my opinion Oil will be worth $200 a barrel in 3-4 years,
You may well be right I was actually asking Harb if he had any of the good oil on Scamps Peak Oil posts
harb wrote:bardon wrote:what about Peak Oil ? Anything on that ?Peak Oil will only return when prices go above US$100 a barrel.
Dont suppose you could repost some of Scamps posts on peak oil I think they were in the same vein as IR's would be good to review if you can get them.
bardon wrote:harb wrote:bardon wrote:what about Peak Oil ? Anything on that ?Peak Oil will only return when prices go above US$100 a barrel.
Dont suppose you could repost some of Scamps posts on peak oil I think they were in the same vein as IR's would be good to review if you can get them.
Scamp wasn't a true believer in peak oil , could you be thinking of Scamp's mate Peak Oil ?
Scamp wrote:"I've been saying Iran war is unavoidable since February. By the way, fuel prices in holland are already 3$ per litre.
Saying fuel prices won't reach 2$ or higher is bollocks : They will. I must admit, 8$ is the doom scenario that even I ( Mr. Doom&Gloom ) find a bit on the high side. I think in the years to come fuel will come to about 4$ per litre and stay stable, mainly due to replacement on fuel prices. After fuel has been replaced by other energy, fuel prices could go up to 20$ or more per litre, basically becoming a luxury item rather than a common good. But by that time, it won't matter much anyway, since the world won't be depending on fuel anymore, it will be the few 'V8 Dodge Chargers' etc running through the streets from the yuppies, the rest will own normal electric cars, either powered entirely by solar power, or relying on hydrogen fuel cells or waterpowered or something in the same lines."
" There's plenty of oil. Speculation drove oil prices up , not 'shortage'. Basically, the exact same thing that happened to housing. Speculation drove those prices up also, not shortage. There's no shortage of housing in Australia. There's no shortage of oil in the world."Scamp was more into RBA bashing,
Scamp wrote:"AUD dollar is collapsing as we speak. Are you blind ? the dollar went from near 1 USD to 70USD.
It will drop more now that the RBA lowered 1% interest. Please do your homework before you post something. That's a 30% drop in the AUD dollar. If that's not a crash then please, tell me what is."
"Oil will be 2$ per litre. Especially with the 30 drop in AUD dollar and what's still to come. Fuel might be lower now, the only reason is that recession is hitting the world.""50% houseprice drop : Did I say it would drop 50% in less than 6 months ? Ofcourse not. In fact, I told you that the bottom would certainly not be earlier than January 2009, and with the recent actions by RBA and government, it will take longer because now it changed to a recession instead of an economic dip.
You will see, 50% houseprice drop will happen."
"Dropping interestrates : Yes you are right, I predicted interest rates to go up and they SHOULD have gone up, but they went down. This is completely illogical and has caught most economists by surprise. The drops so far in interest have resulted in a 30% ( !!!!! ) drop in the AUD and it just shows that the RBA has no clue on what they are doing. They have a different agenda. Do you think the AUD dropping is a good thing ? Think again. The drop in the AUD is going to cause massive problems for Australia in the short / medium AND long term.""Mind you : Dropping interest rates is done for a reason. In 1990 ( you remember, than recession Australia had to have ) RBA dropped interest rates like this. It caused 20% unemployment and loads of trouble for Australia."
"Please, don't speak about things you have no clue about. If you think you were right with the drops of interest rates, this is a very short term, PANIC ACTION by the RBA.
House prices will now, more than ever, and with 100% certainty , drop 50%.""There is no doubt. Recession is coming, commodities ( australia's main export product ) have already crashed on top of 30% loss of the AUD dollar. I'm just telling you like it is, nothing different.
By the way, I'll let you in on a secret on the real reason the RBA has dropped the interest rates.
Mortgage resets.And guess what ? people won't 'save 200$ per month'. They will go from their locked in low interestrates of 6% to the 'new' interestrates of 8%. They will actually have to pay 400$ MORE than before. Thanks to the mortgage resets."
"The RBA just wanted to make the blow a little less bad.
Instead of going from 6% to 9%, they will now go from 6% to 8%.
And the RBA has destroyed the only thing the Australians had ( their strong AUD ) by doing it."harb wrote:Peak Oil wrote:And all the rubbish that China would save our butt , what a joke with China being on one the longest and most massive rampages out doing the rest of us put together , of course it's gonna slow . I wouldn't be at all surprised if China slips in the deepest recession on record .When you say recession do you mean a real recession or a slowdown of GDP growth to 7%-8%?
I can't see the Chinese going into a real recession simply because they don't have to. With all that talk of China joining the world economies its easy to forget that banks and businesses are owned by the state who also control prices, interest rates, the currency, job creation and virtually everything else that our politicians could only dream off. And unlike our system were politicians are too scared of losing their jobs and perks if they make the hard decisions the Chinese don't have that problem.Quote:The simple facts were , Australia is just an ordinary country it's not Tuscany or the Bahamas so what possibly sustainably justifies 7 and 8 times the average wage in house prices or cost of living ?
Then the direction Howard let prices and lack of scruples on ' everything ' and everyone in this country run riot , I mean who would believe it could continue on that path with no consequence ?I don't see it as house prices being twice as expensive as they should be but rather our income being half what is should be. And while its easy to blame Howard for the current situation, specially if you are an ALP supporter, the fact is our problems began much earlier then 1996. They started in 1983 with Keating's Prices and Incomes Accord where workers gave up their right to decent wage increases in exchange for a promise by Hawke and Keating to control inflation. The workers kept their end of the bargain and got screwed while Keating came up with a new excuse and new Accord almost every year until his final Accord Mark VIII after which the voters saw him for the BS artist he was.
Quote:I've also believed for years that there is no rental crisis or housing shortage .I agree with you there is no housing shortage as such. There are plenty of vacant houses, just not in the right locations. All these people who think they are to precious to live in the outback or undesirable suburbs should be trapped while queuing at rental open houses and forcibly relocated to other areas where rental properties are available and towns are dying.
Quote:Personally I think the average Joe feels that orrr, prices are flattening , nows a great time to get a bargain for 3 or 400 k so along with FHOG they think they're doing well . Unfortunately I still think those prices will prove ridiculous in the long run.
If past history is anything to go by you could be right , those prices will prove ridiculously cheap since every recession is followed by a boom.
Quote:Because one , FH owners need a hand to even get close to in the door now – even though they shouldn't actually be buying now if they can wait but two , so much extends from the building and housing industry .
Atleast keeping those areas ticking over if nothing else surely does have to help atleast a bit. !Actually FHBs looking to buy at the very low end of the market based on price alone should have bought as soon as the increased FHOG was announced. Waiting until now just gives them less properties to pick from and the best picks gone, competition from investors hunting for CF +ve IPs and sellers less willing to negotiate the further the rates drop. The best time to buy IS when everyone else is in a panic and selling.
Personally Harb now this is just MO but I believe there'll be allot of Chinese businessmen jumping off all those cranes on the 1/2 finished high rises in the next few years myself .
They will have to feel a massive pinch from the rest of the worlds troubles and at the same time be due for burn out !Keating , dunno . I did own my first property through the 17% ters and know one thing . Even with that life was still a hell of allot easier than lately and that's been proven , by a long shot .
As far as the rest of his work , dunno that either , certainly didn't look too flash , hated politics back then .Rentals , yep people are getting ridiculous I know . My mum and dad started of in the biggest shithole you've ever seen but eh it was only a start .
House prices now , Harb the panic selling hasn't even begun yet so how do we know ., Give it 12 mths.
Same with history , how can we know until we've had the future once again . Couldn't see it though myself but JMO .Cheers
I love reading Scamps rants but has anyone else noticed that he keeps blowing his cover story?
When he first appeared he was an International Investor based in Holland and getting ready to migrate to Australia.
But his use of the Australian vernacular and slang and his knowledge of old advertising campaigns from at least 5 years ago (he quoted the Equity Mate ad from Comm Bnk) is his undoing.
Plus, he’s calling himself Scamp, which is another word for rogue or sh** stirrer. Folks, he’s an agitator. My guess, he still lives at home with his folks in the suburbs of Syd/Melb, studies economics and probably plays Warcarft online.
And, didn’t he say “so long and farewell a while ago? Why the hell did he come back? Can’t anyone keep a simple promise anymore.mymatephil wrote:I love reading Scamps rants but has anyone else noticed that he keeps blowing his cover story?You give him to much credit. He got the old Equity Mate and most of his other rants from hanging around at ghpc were he would like to fit in but is almost as popular as he is here.
I just have a quick question for Scamp.
If you were so certain things were going to crash as they did, and if as you say they are going to crash some more, I would like to know if you have / had any Put options or gone short on our currency, the price of oil, or even an ASX listed property group. (A Put option or selling short enables you to make money if the given commodity or equity goes down for those who don’t know)
If you have, Ill say well done, but if you haven’t one might be able to argue that you should put your money where your mouth is.
I personally am in my 20s and I know allot my of people in my age bracket who think they know everything about the economy, but only a couple of these friends have actually tried to make money out of it (Put options on US financials etc) instead of just harping on about how much of an expert they are.
But yer Ill be interested to see if you did, and if so which equity’s or commodities?
Cheers
mymatephil wrote:My guess, he still lives at home with his folks in the suburbs of Syd/Melb, studies economics and probably plays Warcarft online. And, didn't he say "so long and farewell a while ago? Why the hell did he come back? Can't anyone keep a simple promise anymore.Tthe name scamp was a short form for Scampi a poor mans prawn dish…I think he is the guy from Bad Boy Bubby and only came back after Mummy told him to stop taking his meds……..
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