Ok, So as of right now, The Australian dollar is trading at 61 U.S cent's I have seen as low as 63 a week or two ago when things where bad.
So the question is, Who thinks the dollar will continue to go down, And who thinks it will rally, I would like people to post a figure as to where it will go either up or down, Ect: 40c ?
Please feel free to make your case on exactly why you think the dollar will head in the direction you believe it will be headed, And please don't just say because you think so, A thesis for your opinion is what I'm looking for.
Thnx.
Will keep going down prob around 50cent before rising back again in long term…
In short term.. this is due to the fact that share price worldwide crash, affecting australian commodity export price as well.because of the lower demand for australian commodity export like metal, iron, etc. . this plus some more interest rate cut in the next couple of months which means those seasonal overseas which used to hold australian dollars… or deposit their money in australian… will slowly withdraw their money and send it back overseas most likely in US…
However, when this whole financial crisis over.. Aussie dollar will be going up again.. and I believe the fair trading value considering australian economical strength would be between 70-80cent
49.9 – just because I am going over in May and I didnt get around to exchanging money when it was almost even. Not too scientific I am afraid.
Australian Dollar May Hit Record Low, Strategist Says
By Candice Zachariahs
Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) — The Australian dollar may fall to a record low next year, possibly dipping below 40 U.S. cents for the first time, as slowing growth in emerging markets cools demand for the raw materials exported by the nation.
The currency, known as the Aussie, has dropped 31 percent since reaching a 25-year high of 98.49 U.S. cents on July 16, sliding as prices of crude oil, gold and nickel declined. It reached 47.75 cents in April 2001, the lowest since it started trading freely in 1983.
“I can see it certainly dropping quite sharply from here,'' Carlin Doyle, a London-based currency strategist at State Street Global Markets said in a telephone interview. The Australian dollar could fall “below the 40 cent level and I can see that happening in the next year or so,'' he added.
The forecast is based on the assumption that the current pace of dollar repatriation will continue as investors sell emerging-market assets around the world, causing the U.S. currency to overshoot by as much as 30 percent, according to State Street.
Australia's currency was at 68.00 cents at 1:39 p.m. in London today, from 66.80 cents yesterday.
The currency advanced to its July high as surging commodities prices and a benchmark interest rate of 7.25 percent helped attract investment. It has been the worst performer of the 16 most-traded currencies against the dollar and yen over the past 3 months as a seizure in credit markets fueled concern the global economy is headed for a recession.
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