- MasterREL wrote:hbbehrendorff wrote:A boom ?? Are you out of your mind, On what premiss could you bolster up such an opinion, I've never liked Michael Yardney, He looks evil, Anyone who has done any study into physiognomy would probably agree with me.
.Housing shortage , %yield on properties, interest rates and government intervention are some of the reasons. I have noticed a few of the larger property investors saying the same thing. Here's a link to population growth comment in NSW http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24522178-29277,00.html
While I am bearish on the whole financial scene we may see a property spike in the coming months. Its when the cdo (Collateralized debt obligations) start to blow up that I will begin to worry.
ferrari's, jet skis, million dollar jobs and hot nurses are also in short supply, But I don't really see your point. especially considering there is 900 000 empty houses in Australia, Even if there was a shortage, If the price is to high people can always move back in with mummy.
I don't really see how your formulate the yeild on property is increasing but at the end of the day, The yeild can be all that and a bit more, But that won't really change much if people can't afford to buy.
Interest Rates will make inflation hit through the roof, Along with our crashing dollar will result in increased import costs (Food) and people spending more of there pay % on the cost of living, Leaving them less expendable cash for trinkets like negative geared property, After all, Dosen't everyone still need to pay off there VE SS and there 50 billion dollar credit card ?
Government intervention ? You mean giving pensioners an extra $1000 for bingo night ? Or are you talking about liquidity for banks so they can purchase more bad derivatives and get control of those last cheap gold mines ?
With the population growth thing, Do you realise that without immigration our population growth is negative right ? If this global crisis gets bad enough, People won't be moving anywhere.
hbbehrendorff wrote:Now sir, Tell me, Do you really support this ?Please…..
http://www.inspect-ny.com/hazmat/CO2gashaz.htm
- At 1% concentration of carbon dioxide CO2 (10,000 parts per million or ppm) and under continuous exposure at that level, such as in an auditorium filled with occupants and poor fresh air ventilation, some occupants are likely to feel drowsy.
- The concentration of carbon dioxide must be over about 2% (20,000 ppm) before most people are aware of its presence unless the odor of an associated material (auto exhaust or fermenting yeast, for instance) is present at lower concentrations.
- Above 2%, carbon dioxide may cause a feeling of heaviness in the chest and/or more frequent and deeper respirations.
- If exposure continues at that level for several hours, minimal "acidosis" (an acid condition of the blood) may occur but more frequently is absent.
- Breathing rate doubles at 3% CO2 and is four times the normal rate at 5% CO2.
- Toxic levels of carbon dioxide: at levels above 5%, concentration CO2 is directly toxic. [At lower levels we may be seeing effects of a reduction in the relative amount of oxygen rather than direct toxicity of CO2.]
Of course I know Carbon Dioxide is a vital element to life on the planet. So is sun, and so is water…..yet increase the power of the sun 2x and I tell you I will not be happy. Increase the volume of water…and it will be hard to type underwater.
The ecosystem we have that supports our life has developed over millions of years. We are affecting massive change to the balance over a period of just 100 years…. To deny this is neglecting your responsibilities as a global citizen.
We are nowhere near those types of levels that you talk about, Levels like that would take many hundreds of years maybe even thousands just to reach your 1%
Governments around the world have spent hundreds of billions of dollars trying to prove Co2 causes global warming but have failed to find any proof, Its a fact that we are comming to the end of this heat cycle and are entering another cold Era as the world is cooling down, different places on earth have incured there coldest winter in hundreds of years
You talk about the suns heat doubling, I have already read that, But I don't see how that has anything to do with Co2 or Global tax.
If Governments where truley concerned about Co2 levels perhaps they would be implementing solutions not global taxes like…
1: replanting forests considering we have hacked down 90% of them around the world
2: stop suppressing advanced techonology to allow cars to run of renewable energy sources like water or solar power
3: Taking real steps to make every house in Australia run off solar energy, If everyones roof was covered with solar pannels we would make multiple times more energy then we need to sustain ourselfs
These things will never happen because profits from oil, gas and power company's would go down to nothing, and we couldn't have that could we ? And further more it would be even worse to allow people to become totaly self suficient would'nt it ?
dragun wrote:Tonight on 60 minutes there was a segment on property prices dropping by up to 40% within the next few years. it does seem a little drastic to throw around figures of 40%.the stock market has fallen 40% in less than a year !!
it's not DRASTIC, it's PLAUSIBLE
hbbehrendorff wrote:ferrari's, jet skis, million dollar jobs and hot nurses are also in short supply, But I don't really see your point. especially considering there is 900 000 empty houses in Australia, Even if there was a shortage, If the price is to high people can always move back in with mummy.
I don't really see how your formulate the yeild on property is increasing but at the end of the day, The yeild can be all that and a bit more, But that won't really change much if people can't afford to buy.
Interest Rates will make inflation hit through the roof, Along with our crashing dollar will result in increased import costs (Food) and people spending more of there pay % on the cost of living, Leaving them less expendable cash for trinkets like negative geared property, After all, Dosen't everyone still need to pay off there VE SS and there 50 billion dollar credit card ?
Government intervention ? You mean giving pensioners an extra $1000 for bingo night ? Or are you talking about liquidity for banks so they can purchase more bad derivatives and get control of those last cheap gold mines ?
With the population growth thing, Do you realise that without immigration our population growth is negative right ? If this global crisis gets bad enough, People won't be moving anywhere.
You are arguing your case to someone that supports your theory and already acknowledges all the above. However its just that at the moment, theory and predictions. I am just stating what I have heard from the larger property investors that are actually living and breathing property in the $millions. I don't know a vast amount on issues regarding property so I went out to check the other side of the story. I don't know you from a bar of soap so have no idea of your credentials.
At the moment I think there are a lot of people on the sidelines that are waiting to throw their cash on the investing bonfire. So we may see a spike in booth property and shares before the final fall. Govt intervention will give people a false sense of security. But in reality its still all predictions . I do not know exactly how it will play out. All I can do is prepare enough in case it does hit the wall. If I waited around for financial armageddon I would never make a trade
wallyt99 wrote:Man you guys sure are naive about climate change.Two links from respected sources that you should read.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2008/04/24/eaarctic124.xml
http://www.abc.net.au/science/news/stories/s866600.htmOk, so I've read in the telegraph that some scientists are a little bit embarrassed by falling sea levels
Quote:In the early 1990s, scientists forecast that the coral atoll of nine islands – which is only 12ft above sea level at its highest point – would vanish within decades because the sea was rising by up to 1.5in a year. However, a new study has found that sea levels have since fallen by nearly 2.5in and experts at Tuvalu's Meteorological Service in Funafuti, the islands' administrative centre, said this meant they would survive for another 100 years.
They said similar sea level falls had been recorded in Nauru and the Solomon Islands, which were also considered to be under threat. The release of the data from Tuvalu, formerly part of the Gilbert and Ellice Islands, will renew scientific debate about climate change and its impact on ocean levels. The island's scientists admitted they were surprised and "a little embarrassed" by the change, which they blame on unusual weather conditions caused by El Niño in 1997.
Hilia Vavae, the Meteorological Service's director, said: "This is certainly a bit of a shock for us because we have been experiencing the effect of rising oceans for a long time." Although their country has been saved from imminent engulfment, not all islanders are happy about the change in Tuvalu's fortunes. Residents who once worried about their homes being flooded are now complaining that the lower tides are disrupting their fishing expeditions, making it difficult to moor their boats and navigate low-lying reefs.
and in the abc that some islands are sinking,
Quote:http://www.abc.net.au/science/news/stories/s866600.htm
The area is at a junction of the Australasian-Indian tectonic plates, which produce a large number of major earthquakes. Some experts believe the quakes are responsible for the sinking of some islands and the rising of others.also read this interview
Quote:http://www.iceagenow.com/Rising_Sea_Level_Claim_a_Total_Fraud.htm
You have Vanuatu, and also in the Pacific, north of New Zealand and Fiji— there is the island Tegua. They said they had to evacuate it, because the sea level was rising. But again, you look at the tide-gauge record: There is absolutely no signal that the sea level is rising. If anything, you could say that maybe the tide is lowering a little bit, but absolutely no rising.and found this funny quote here,
"Course if Einstein said Gore was wrong it would be because Einstein was in the pockets of big oil."
http://marginalizedactiondinosaur.net/?p=648Now what ?
The facts are clear, there is no evidence whatsoever and its all a big scam to increase taxes and keep the research money coming. Now that we're starting to get taxed for CO2 emissions the "research " is now moving towards finding new causes of global warming .
Apparently plants and cows are the real culprits but they have refused to pay any taxes.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2006/jan/12/environment.climatechange
Quote:They have long been thought of as the antidote to harmful greenhouse gases, sufferers of, rather than contributors to, the effects of global warming. But in a startling discovery, scientists have realised that plants are part of the problem.
According to a study published today, living plants may emit almost a third of the methane entering the Earth's atmosphere.
The result has come as a shock to climate scientists. "This is a genuinely remarkable result," said Richard Betts of the climate change monitoring organisation the Hadley Centre. "It adds an important new piece of understanding of how plants interact with the climate."
Methane is second only to carbon dioxide in contributing to the greenhouse effect. "For a given mass of methane, it is a stronger greenhouse gas, but the reason it is of less concern is that there's less of it in the atmosphere," said Dr Betts.
But the concentration of methane in the atmosphere has almost tripled in the last 150 years, mainly through human-influenced so-called biogenic sources such as the rise in rice cultivation or numbers of flatulent ruminating animals. According to previous estimates, these sources make up two-thirds of the 600m tonnes worldwide annual methane production.
If you want to know whats going on with the ecconomy and why, Listen for 10 minutes.
crashy wrote:dragun wrote:Tonight on 60 minutes there was a segment on property prices dropping by up to 40% within the next few years. it does seem a little drastic to throw around figures of 40%.the stock market has fallen 40% in less than a year !!
it's not DRASTIC, it's PLAUSIBLE
Don't forget that the stock market plays out daily and therefore there is an element of forced selling/buying which can align itself with the fear/greed prevelant in the market during that day/hour/minute.
Perhaps if people were forced to sell houses on a daily basis we would see such drastic falls, but to say that it happened in the stock market so it can then happen in the property market is incorrect.
it amazes me the scare tactics the media and others go on about, painting all this doom and gloom rubbish. the fact is , no one knows whats going to happen. and i would think that once it all settles down, i am sure the prices will correct themselves a bit, but they wont crash. If anything, people will pulltheir money out of shares and put it back into property,
cheers
wian
So many armchair experts on these forums lately its getting funny. Things be it property shares or climate can go so many ways and there are endless studies and news articals supporting all of them. Someone gets brainwashed into believing one POSSIBLE outcome then off they go. Trying to ram it down everyones throught and if they dont take it as fact. Well then they mare just completly wrong and in denial. This can be said for positve and negative views on current climates.
Some people have there head in the sand thinking things will continue to roll on as they have done over the last ten years. These people are a minority as most agree we are slowing down and are adjusting there activites as required.
Then the other end of the spectrum. The gloomers some of which seem to think the world will stop revolving. Quick store food and batteries and head for the hills they say. These are generally thoughts from a simple mind that is easily led. A cult leaders dream really.
Also there are the gloomers on GHPC. I frequent the web site and get a lot of info from them. But you have to see it for what it really is.While some are comments are true and unbiased. Many are just from angry little people bitter because they cant buy a house. They cut and paste articals and then explain why we are all doomed.They say 100% what is about to happen and then when the complete opposite happens do they go "oops i was wrong" No way they just explain it with more crap and put another negative spin on it. They are activly trying to push down the market for there own benefite and are so wound up with negativity they are like a gaggle of trolls around a fire. It is pathetic.
I believe all people on this site should also visit GHPC. ( After all they are constantly on hear spreading there GHPC bible right guys)
A newbie will go on there and at first be absolutly horrified as people tell them that 100% without doubt property investing is finished. But as you spend more time on there you realise the quality of the poster and you start to see through them. At this time you throw 90% of there crap to the side and use it for the good information available. At this point it is a useful website.wian wrote:it amazes me the scare tactics the media and others go on about, painting all this doom and gloom rubbish. the fact is , no one knows whats going to happen. and i would think that once it all settles down, i am sure the prices will correct themselves a bit, but they wont crash. If anything, people will pulltheir money out of shares and put it back into property,cheers
wian
How can you say that no one knows what is going to happen, when this whole ecconomic collapse situation is planned and the fate of the markets and important global issues are decided at meetings like the bilderberg group ?
There is proof of meetings and classified documents from years ago that state how the sub prime mortgages and the stock market was going to be imploded, to push for global monetary power consolidation and bailouts.
Its also stated that oil will go down to $50 to cause ecconomic destruction within the middle east, The dollar is going to be totally collapsed so that foregin dollar reserves are usless and the currency will be replaced by the amero.
How can you ignore all these facts and ignorantly say that no one knows what is going on, or what will happen. I think you need to stop watching Australian Idol and do some serious research into History and non mainstream media and current events to get a proper perspective as to what is really going on.
I don't mean to be rude but there is much knowledge to be learnt before you can grasp this ecconomic problem
hbbehrendorff wrote:wian wrote:it amazes me the scare tactics the media and others go on about, painting all this doom and gloom rubbish. the fact is , no one knows whats going to happen. and i would think that once it all settles down, i am sure the prices will correct themselves a bit, but they wont crash. If anything, people will pulltheir money out of shares and put it back into property,cheers
wian
How can you say that no one knows what is going to happen, when this whole ecconomic collapse situation is planned and the fate of the markets and important global issues are decided at meetings like the bilderberg group ?
There is proof of meetings and classified documents from years ago that state how the sub prime mortgages and the stock market was going to be imploded, to push for global monetary power consolidation and bailouts.
Its also stated that oil will go down to $50 to cause ecconomic destruction within the middle east, The dollar is going to be totally collapsed so that foregin dollar reserves are usless and the currency will be replaced by the amero.
How can you ignore all these facts and ignorantly say that no one knows what is going on, or what will happen. I think you need to stop watching Australian Idol and do some serious research into History and non mainstream media and current events to get a proper perspective as to what is really going on.
I don't mean to be rude but there is much knowledge to be learnt before you can grasp this ecconomic problem
What he means is stop watching idle and start believing every conspiricy theory you hear. And also dont trust world leaders and those who serve them. Instead trust teenage university economics student who smash these forums daily.
He means dont listen to the expierianced people in the world with many boom bust cycles under there belt. Instead just follow the worst possible outcome as that is the one you are imprinted to follow due to a general negative outlook on life.
He means when you here the best and worse case scenarios. Dont use you brain and have some faith that the true outcome will be somewhere in the middle. No you must take the worse route and live your life in fear.
This will sort itself out. I say let it happen. let the negative nellies have there day in the sun and then move on. I would love to think that in a few years they will be gone but they are drawn to a negative outlook. they will jump on the next world ending event like ducks to water.
This is the time that seasoned investors and millionares talked about. When peolpe are running for the hills. You must look for opportunity. Just remember who do you want to learn off. The wealthy and smart or the poor and negative.
One thing I must say, And im not trying to gloat, But your the one starting the accusations, I have much more property then you will ever have in your life, So please stop the false attacks.
Sir, How can you call mainstream news a conspiracy theory ? I am not asking anyone to live in fear, Not to make money or run for the hills, I have never said any of that, You are twisting what I say for your own ignorant agenda
Actually the truth is that multiple times I have told people not to listen or trust what I say, But to do there own research instead of "Having some faith" and believing the storys from the land of milk and honey about false things like property doubling every couple years or listening to people when they tell you to pour endless amouts of money into a so called "investment" property that does the opposite to the words definition because the big boom that will come next year will save them from the pit of debt.
Then when someone who does the thousand of hours of research into the market and the ecconomy says something thats opposite to your own personal belief system based on limited information you attack them by calling them conspiracy theorists or doom and gloomers, Most of my posts are filled with factual information and I usually try and provide links to mainstream media to support my facts.
There is 6.5 billion people on this plannet and there is much more to learn then just what has been force feed to you through the 8 hours of TV you have watched since you where a baby in dirty nappies from privately owned media corporations.
People laughed when I said the stock market would crash
People laughed when I said the dollar would collapse
People are laughing now when I say property will collapseYour that misinformed you would probably say its a conspiracy theory if I told you the queen of england was the head of the australian armed forces.
For every hit there is a miss. Not just you but others like you. Interest rates will hit 10% plus. Fuel will hit $2.50 plus blah blah blah. All wrong plus there is a lot more.For every bit of news that supports your belief there is another that supports the opposite.
I actually take some stuff from your post. You do show the other side of the argument. But then you clearly get wound up in your own negativity and start dribbling crap. This is clear to see for anyone who reads your post. You actually shoot yourself in the foot. People start to listen to you then of you go on the extremist stuff and people zone out..
I love the whole " if you want to know the truth look at this random news artical" Yeah sure i will pin all my beliefs on random articals and youtube clips. Get real.
What exactly do you want from a PROPERTY FORUM. Dont claim you are here to help i dont buy that. Do you want to bask in your own glory when one of your one hundred predictions come true. Do you want a gold star. What ?.
We will never agree becaase you seem to think every investor just buys endless property at any price on the assumption of values doubling every 7 years. I really wish you guys would let this one go.This is a small percentage. Most look at long term growth.
I bet we will see a correction that you guys will jump on as a crash and take claim to the glory of picking it. But if a drop of 20 % comes after previose gains of 150% as many have expierienced. Who cares. Some will loose. Some will not.
And if you do have more property than me well than good on you.Well done
How about some more balanced posts… less doom & gloom and less unrealistic optimism.
Topics I am looking at myself:
– house prices are likely to correct, maybe crash, but isn't it more likely that the level of decline is going to be much more pronounced in certain sectors/areas than in others? Some may even stay neutral or increase to a small degree? If so where? SEQ and other strong growth areas?
– as an overseas investor I know that housing affordability is often quoted as an issue in Australia with the a 6-7 multiple being highlighted, but one thing I do observe (anecdotally rather than based on statistics) is that the size and quality of housing is higher than in countries like the UK. Maybe Australia is likely to follow other countries in that expectations for the size/quality of the average home need to come down to get housing affordabilty improved?
– population forecasts show from ABS show very strong population growth in Australia during the 21st century, combined with demographic trends (baby boomers, decreasing household size etc) this must ultimately come to play in the housing market. Leading for larger demand, and maybe more demand for non traditional housing solutions?
– the australian economy still looks well placed to weather a global recession, emerging markets like Africa, India, Brazil, China and others are still forecast to grow at 6%-9% over the next couple of years and probably faster thereafter and that will keep the demand for commodities healthy (but not as extreme as in the last 6 months)
I personally see a long term opportunity in the Australian market given the above and look to invest in properties that will align with those long term trends of population growth, demographic shifts, more and more medium and high density housing closer to CBDs… but I do agree that keeping your pwder dry for the next 6-12 months might be a good idea. Although I am looking to get back into the sharemarkets much sooner (after I exited in June-July).
Any constructive thoughts?
If you want to make money NOW then I think the sharemarket is the way to go, The sharemarket will have many zig zags on its way down to the bottom and if your interested in trading options then all you need is a little foresight into the market to make some very profitable gains, Although lots of puts have been banned in the sharemarkets by our loving government
Another thing to note is that if your interested in the stock market you may want to look into the purchase of shares thats yield is over 100% now, I've seen certain shares with almost 200% yield.
Commodities will continue to fall even further as we will see deflation before a hyper inflationary market, Crude Oil will go to about $50 a barrel before eventually skyrocketing to 150-200+, So once it hits that $50 it is a good time to hop on, you will see huge gains from then on.
I still think gold and silver are hugely undervalued, If gold was distributed equally between everyone on earth, then there would only be one ounce for each person. Also there is a lot of catching up for gold and silver to do considering compounded inflation for the past 30 years.
I forget the exact number but I read a report that said china was creating a new mine every second day, those numbers are huge, this will eventually have even more impact on Australian mining export profits.
As for property, All the millionaires I know are sitting tight. I think potential investors should be patient and sit the wave out and see what happens over the next several months and throughout 2009.
I actually agree with both posts above. I believe you should give property a miss for the next 6 months,that should be long enough to work out future direction. I dont believe the new grant will make much of a difference. It inflated prices before but that was from a lower base.I myself have no shares apart from the ones my employer gives me each year. that is about to change as i have opened a online broking account and i plan to put around $20,000 in over the next few months.
devo76 wrote:I believe all people on this site should also visit GHPC. ( After all they are constantly on hear spreading there GHPC bible right guys) A newbie will go on there and at first be absolutly horrified as people tell them that 100% without doubt property investing is finished. But as you spend more time on there you realise the quality of the poster and you start to see through them. At this time you throw 90% of there crap to the side and use it for the good information available. At this point it is a useful website.I like to read and blog in both this site and that. I feel it gives me a more rounded POV.
Like Devo says, there are extreme POVs on both sites. I guess it is because property is such an emotional topic in Australia – half the country have thier futires invested in it and the other half see their futures ruined because of it. It has to correct, that much is certain. By how much and when is unknown.
I feel as badly for some investors as I do some recent FHBs and some tenants (those who stand to have thier places of recidence foreclosed). Reading here shows me that not all investors are greedy scum, only some:) I wish just the greedy scum were going to suffer but unfortunately it doesn't work like that.
so when will the boom begin?
alani wrote:so when will the boom begin?
2015 with average to no growth befor that.
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