The news today said that 'buyers are rushing back to the market' with the extra home grant on offer. This is outright bull. I went to 4 Opens and one Auction in 3 (widely) different Melbourne suburbs today. We were the only ones at most of them. The auction was passed in 30,000 below the range.
In addition, after a relative quiet period, the market is being bombarded with new properties as people who are worried about the crash, and not being able to get the 'value' of their property back rush to sell, and properties that havent sold continue to sit there.
I know the drops have occurred in many states before now, but Melbourne has been relatively immune. Not anymore.
The panic selling has began, and the correction will follow.
If anything, This FHBG will only inflate the housing bubble a little bit more and keep the illusion going a little longer.
Soon we will see big government deficits as Mr Rudd, as the good little globalist he is will borrow many billions from the RBA
A few months ago I would have said that Australia will fair the best out of all the western nations in this global ecconomic crisis, But now I can see us entering another great depression.
People should be considering moving some of there purchasing power into gold or silver and taking steps to become more self sufficient with there everyday needs. ie: Food and water.
Small inner city blocks will not be very sufficient in being sustainable, Anyone who has the ability to move onto a property that is on the outskirts of town with greater land area should be doing so, So they have the ability to grow fruit and vegetables and run some kind of meat, Chickens, Goats or Cows.
People should also be investing in enough water tanks to be sufficient for at least 6 months with water purifiers, Actually everyone should be purifying there water now in anycase to remove the fluride from water, Its a toxic substance that causes many problems including alzheimer's, sterilization depression ect
Also anyone who can afford Solar Power should be considering fitting out there roof with solar pannels and becoming independent from ergon, If you earn less then $100 000pa you can get up to a $8,000 government grant I think they subsidise $1 for ever watt of solar power pannel capacity
I wouldn't personally go that far…. but I was one of the strongest advocates that this was a quiet market and the time to buy. From what I saw today this is just the calm before the storm, and I will be finding a safe port to weather it out.
I.E I will rent….rather than buy.
I am thinking beachside….. why buy beachside when it will be under water in 15 years?
"I wouldn't personally go that far" Could you present a case or show me any proof as why my thesis can't happen ?
Just basic research will tell you that our ecconomy and infact the world is in worse shape then it was in the 1920's
Is there a special reason that histroy won't repeat itself this time ? considering everything is much worse then its ever been before..
Perhaps people should read cases of ecconomic collapse in past history, Ill give you a head start on a few…
weimar republic
great depression
argentina
mexicoCan't use the past to predict the future.
What I can say without a shadow of a doubt is that if you believe this all so much, why are you wasting your time here?
Shouldn't you be sowing seeds? Or stocking up on 10kg bags of rice?
wallyt99 wrote:I wouldn't personally go that far…. but I was one of the strongest advocates that this was a quiet market and the time to buy. From what I saw today this is just the calm before the storm, and I will be finding a safe port to weather it out.I.E I will rent….rather than buy.
I am thinking beachside….. why buy beachside when it will be under water in 15 years?
Nice idea:) Enjoy the beach before it's gone…
This FHBG of 21K is doing funny things to the market, already. I thought it would create a mini boom – and it may – but it seems to have also created a massive dose of fear amongst REAs, investors and vendors. Sure, prices are being whacked up by 7-30K but there is an air of 'this is it – last chance to get out closing down sale' type of thing.
Kind of wierd that it is co-inciding with spring, the best time to sell… or perhaps not. Media is divided on the topic but if you look around you can find stats on new housing credit created this year and see that, in the last month, it went over a cliff. That's ok, housing credit has gone over a cliff before (and recently too) – just not at this time of year.
There was all this REI and media hype of undersupply, which may or may not be true – who the hell knows anymore. Whatever, developers have been developing pretty hard, right? And why not? Prices are as high as they have ever been, rental yields likewise and, apparently, there is a shortage of supply. So a fair whack of new stock getting ready for sale from this spring is needed?
I guess a lot is riding on really strong sales (at whatever price) for the rest of this year.
Get this 3 DVD set and watch as Michael Yardney, Australia's leading expert in wealth creation through property and Tony Melvin, best selling author and property tax specialist, teach you how and where to invest to take advantage of the great property boom ahead.
Watch as Michael Yardney teaches you lessons learned from past property cycles that will ensure you reap the benefits of the great property boom ahead.
http://www.propertyupdate.com.au/pages/How-and-Where-to-Invest-in-Property.html
http://www.propertyupdate.com.au/articles/358/1/Eclectic-Elwood/Page1.htmlAnyone who thinks the FHB grants will ward off house price drops longterm should read page 27 of The Australian's "Inquirer" section.
It makes it very clear why Australians are just next in line behind the US and UK. Put simply, too many of us are hocked to the hilt, unemployment is rising and – despite what those with vested interests in talking up the market would have us believe – there is NO shortage of rental properties in many areas of Australia.
By all accounts we're heading for a perfect storm and Rudd's $10b taxpayer funded party is just postponing the inevitable – and possibly making it worse.
As for Michael Yardney, I have never once heard him say 'now's not a good time to buy'.
Tonight on 60 minutes there was a segment on property prices dropping by up to 40% within the next few years. How do you rate these kind of comments with the current situation? I can foresee further price drops, and although I'm no expert, it does seem a little drastic to throw around figures of 40%. Thoughts?
30(odd)% from the 2007 peak – average house prices of 250K – is sustainable on current wages of 55K.
So, if prices have already moved 5-10% from last years peak a further 25% is reasonable to assume. 40% may be the elastic low point for any one lucky (or smart) enough to purchase at the right time.
wallyt99 wrote:I am thinking beachside….. why buy beachside when it will be under water in 15 years?
Hahaha, too bad you can't get a sea rise guarantee or your (rent) money back.
The "rising sea levels" and "global warming" is a scam perpetrated by scientific fraudsters looking for tax payer funded handouts. The temperatures have been falling slightly and there is no evidence of rising sea levels, its just a big con job to get research money out of stupid governments and playing on peoples fears. There are plenty of honest scientists who had enough of this BS and are now coming out to denounce the scammers. Just have to Google for fraud + global warming or rising sea level and read the truth for yourself
.Quote:TWO KINDS OF SCIENTISTS
We are assured by the White House that scientists everywhere are sounding these warmings and that we may only have one chance to stop it.
Well, as the debate rages, we find that there really are two kinds of "scientists."
There are those who look at facts and make their judgements based on what they know.
Their findings can be matched by any other scientist, using the same data and set of circumstances to reach the same conclusions. It's a age-old practice called peer reviewing. It's the only true science.
And then there are those who yearn for a certain outcome and set about creating the needed data to make it so. Usually you will find this group of scientists greatly dependent on grants supplied by those with a specific political agenda who demand desired outcomes for their money
http://www.americanpolicy.org/un/thereisnoglobal.htmGlobal Warming, as we think we know it, doesn't exist.
http://www.canadafreepress.com/2007/global-warming020507.htm
Harb, where have you been?
Global warming may be a myth to some but most scientists agree on climate change. I recon there is sweet FA we can do about it now, it is a natural cycle, like property devaluations:)
ummester wrote:30(odd)% from the 2007 peak – average house prices of 250K – is sustainable on current wages of 55K.So, if prices have already moved 5-10% from last years peak a further 25% is reasonable to assume. 40% may be the elastic low point for any one lucky (or smart) enough to purchase at the right time.
Just had one across the road sell for 30%+ less, they had it advertised at $1.395m for 1 year now before selling it for $1m last week. The thing is the sellers have more then doubled their money in 3 years, but I'm sure the buyer is happy he got his $30% off.
To bad I'm not planning on selling or I'd double the price I wanted and then give some lucky (or smart) buyer 40% off. LOLummester wrote:Harb, where have you been?Looking at buying some more houses , where else ? Thanks to that stupid FHOG increase one of my offers got knocked back and the place sold to a FHB for full asking price.
I recon there is sweet FA we can do about it now, it is a natural cycle, like property devaluations:)
Yep , been happening since the beginning long before we got down from the trees so it couldn't be our fault.
And I know for a fact that the rising sea level story is a crock of shit, don't need no satellites either. I've got a couple of S/steel rods into the retaining wall to measure tide levels and its been the same for 20 years now. Unless the concrete wall is expanding at the same rate with the sea level.
harb wrote:wallyt99 wrote:I am thinking beachside….. why buy beachside when it will be under water in 15 years?
Hahaha, too bad you can't get a sea rise guarantee or your (rent) money back.
The "rising sea levels" and "global warming" is a scam perpetrated by scientific fraudsters looking for tax payer funded handouts. The temperatures have been falling slightly and there is no evidence of rising sea levels, its just a big con job to get research money out of stupid governments and playing on peoples fears. There are plenty of honest scientists who had enough of this BS and are now coming out to denounce the scammers. Just have to Google for fraud + global warming or rising sea level and read the truth for yourself
.Quote:TWO KINDS OF SCIENTISTS
We are assured by the White House that scientists everywhere are sounding these warmings and that we may only have one chance to stop it.
Well, as the debate rages, we find that there really are two kinds of "scientists."
There are those who look at facts and make their judgements based on what they know.
Their findings can be matched by any other scientist, using the same data and set of circumstances to reach the same conclusions. It's a age-old practice called peer reviewing. It's the only true science.
And then there are those who yearn for a certain outcome and set about creating the needed data to make it so. Usually you will find this group of scientists greatly dependent on grants supplied by those with a specific political agenda who demand desired outcomes for their money
http://www.americanpolicy.org/un/thereisnoglobal.htmGlobal Warming, as we think we know it, doesn't exist.
http://www.canadafreepress.com/2007/global-warming020507.htm
Wow, There is something I actually agree on with Harb, Global warming in the 20th century was true, But its the reason behind it that is a lie, Its not Carbon Dioxide (The most important gas on this earth, The one all the plants breath!) that has made the earth warmer, It is because of the sun's heat increasing, I bet the scientists who work for the U.N didn't tell you that all the other plannets in our solar system have been getting hotter as well, But like harb said, The earth is getting colder now, Actually we could very well enter another ice age, But I won't get into that, And the true reason for this tax is to implement a central world tax to consolidate governmental powers, Along with the financial crisis
Just listen to the latest market commentary on Michael Yardney's webcast where he advertises his upcoming workshop. He talks about expecting a a property boom. A good reason to go to his seminar so he can tell you which suburbs will boom now.
Man you guys sure are naive about climate change.
Two links from respected sources that you should read.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2008/04/24/eaarctic124.xml
Quote:In September 2007, the sea ice shrank to 39 per cent below its 1979-2000 mean level, the lowest since satellite monitoring began in 1979 and also the lowest for the entire 20th century based on monitoring from ships and aircraft.The IPCC had said that if the entire Greenland Ice Sheet were to melt sea levels would rise 7.3 metres with consequences across the globe.
http://www.abc.net.au/science/news/stories/s866600.htm
Quote:Their tide-measuring station on Papua New Guinea's Manus Island, 1,100 km west of the atolls, has measured an annual 8.2 mm rise in sea-levels over the past seven years.The Solomon Islands station, 750 km to the south, has recorded an annual 6.2 mm rise over the past eight years. Nauru, 1200 km northeast, has recorded 5.6 mm per year over nine years.
A boom ?? Are you out of your mind, On what premiss could you bolster up such an opinion, I've never liked Michael Yardney, He looks evil, Anyone who has done any study into physiognomy would probably agree with me.
What information does he know, That we don't know, That would make him preach there will be a boom ?
Or is it just a case of him wanting to make more money, As no one would be going to his seminar if he said the market is in disaster
I always find it funny how everyone seeks an expert to come to there own opinion, while at the same time turning there own mind off, Like everyone wants to be feed the answer, whether it be true or false, Because that makes it easier. No one has there best interest's at heart more then oneself.
If you want to find the answer to anything, Don't believe anyone you hear, especially when they have there own special interest, Do the research yourself and come to your own conclusion.
hbbehrendorff wrote:A boom ?? Are you out of your mind, On what premiss could you bolster up such an opinion, I've never liked Michael Yardney, He looks evil, Anyone who has done any study into physiognomy would probably agree with me.
.Housing shortage , %yield on properties, interest rates and government intervention are some of the reasons. I have noticed a few of the larger property investors saying the same thing. Here's a link to population growth comment in NSW http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24522178-29277,00.html
While I am bearish on the whole financial scene we may see a property spike in the coming months. Its when the cdo (Collateralized debt obligations) start to blow up that I will begin to worry.
wallyt99 wrote:Man you guys sure are naive about climate change.Two links from respected sources that you should read.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2008/04/24/eaarctic124.xml
Quote:In September 2007, the sea ice shrank to 39 per cent below its 1979-2000 mean level, the lowest since satellite monitoring began in 1979 and also the lowest for the entire 20th century based on monitoring from ships and aircraft.The IPCC had said that if the entire Greenland Ice Sheet were to melt sea levels would rise 7.3 metres with consequences across the globe.
http://www.abc.net.au/science/news/stories/s866600.htm
Quote:Their tide-measuring station on Papua New Guinea's Manus Island, 1,100 km west of the atolls, has measured an annual 8.2 mm rise in sea-levels over the past seven years.The Solomon Islands station, 750 km to the south, has recorded an annual 6.2 mm rise over the past eight years. Nauru, 1200 km northeast, has recorded 5.6 mm per year over nine years.
Did you listen to anything I said ? The sun has been heating up in the 20th century, Now we are entering a new cold era and the temperature will fall greatly.
Sir, Do you even know what carbon dioxide is ? I employ you to do some research and actually find out what Co2 is, Co2 is not harmful or toxic in anyway, It is one of the most important elements there are to sustain life, I refere you to this basic diagram of photosynthesis
http://grapevine.net.au/~grunwald/une/KLAs/science/irrigation-photosynthesis.gif
The government already owns the water, Your not even allowed to collet rain water without government approval, My family owns cotton farms and they have to pay for the water that falls out of the sky and lands in there dams.
Now the government has convinced the public that Co2 is evil and to save the plannet we need to tax it !
Sir, Co2 comes out of our lungs when we breath, Will we need a breathing permit and will we have to pay a living tax ?
Now we have 2 of the 3 elements of life regulated by the government, They have even convinced us that one of these elements is bad and evil and is causing the destruction of the earth, Whats next ? regulation of the sun ?
How dare you collect free solar energy without government approval, Pay your sunlight tax or get tasered and go to jail, Perhaps we need to enforce permits for walking on the beach ? All these people are collecting governmen light and not paying for it.
Sir global warming is a fraud and when Barack Obama wins the american ellection he is going to declare Co2 a "Dangerous Pollutant" http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/20081016/pl_bloomberg/alhwvvgnkcd4 Yet another country to fall to the global taxing system.
Now sir, Tell me, Do you really support this ?
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