Should I be buying now?

OK. 90% of the crap you just said i made no reference too.Aussie dollar crashing. Did i make reference to that???

Inflation ??? I said nothing about that.

Fuel will be $2 a litre. Well thats a bit open ended. I bet it will be $4 a litre one day too.
Economists didnt predict the rate movement. But that was the amount not the direction that caught them out.

My point is clear. You come on hear and start vomiting up your take on things and pass it off as 100% fact.
Many of your so called facts have prooved to be wrong over the last few months.So what do you do. You readjust your doom calculater and vomit up a new spin on things.You do not 100% know what is going to happen as you keep saying.Your strike rate is getting worse each day.Yes we are in for a rough patch with dropping house values and a weaker economy. Bit shit that is like standing at the beach and claiming that the tide will come back in eventually. Tell us something we dont know. The rest of what you are saying is purly a estimated guess. NOT FACT.
Maybe you should offer your services to solve the worlds problems. Its always times like this that the armchair heroes come out to play.

Some more on the AUD (courtesy of CBA):

The AUD often trades as a "barometer of global financial market sentiment". When financial market sentiment turns to panic, the AUD gets oversold.

The reasons why the AUD gets sold are understandable*. What is less understandable is why the AUD gets oversold. The main reason why the AUD gets oversold is because the AUD is a very liquid currency. And due to the make-up of Australia's exports (more than 60% are commodities and exports make up some 22% of the economy), the AUD can often trade as a proxy for commodity prices and as a proxy for global growth estimates. The AUD can also trade as a proxy for Asia, a proxy for current account deficit countries, and as a proxy for Australia's economy. Overwhelming uncertainty in any of these areas can result in large falls in the AUD because participants can usually orchestrate the necessary volume of trade through the AUD currency market, whether they are leveraged or not.

When panic sets in, a circuit-breaker is needed. The larger than expected 100 basis point reduction in the RBA's cash rate, bringing the official rate to 6.0% is a prudent move and has, for now, provided a circuit-breaker. It demonstrates the RBA is able to take leadership when panic sets in and do what is required when growth risks are skewed heavily to the downside because of global financial market movements. But it is important to note that recent gains in the AUD from this morning's Sydney low have also reflected a weaker USD. The RBA's move has sparked the possibility that large and co-ordinated central bank interest cuts could be forthcoming and given non-USD currencies a temporary boost. The fact that the AUD is higher on the cross rates illustrates that participants have, for now, positively endorsed the RBA's leading and prudent move.

It is too early to be sure that global financial market panic has completely subsided. Until we can comfortably come to that conclusion, the risk to the AUD remains to the downside. When panic sets in, it tends to matter little that the AUD has fallen nearly 10% in one day. Or within a whisker of its record low vis-à-vis the EUR** and lower than the levels traded during the 2001 global recession the 1997-98 Asia crisis. Arguably the current credit crisis is much worse and so more downside should be anticipated, whether it comes in panic moves or not. 

*Reasons why the AUD is falling

(1) The AUD is an extremely liquid currency. According to the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), the AUD/USD exchange rate is the 4th most liquid currency in the world. Australia's financial markets are deep and among the most sophisticated in the world. Hence participants can get pricing for large volume trades.

(2) Australia's exports make up approx 22% of the economy and commodities make up the bulk (approx 60%) of Australia's exports. Participants take the view that as global growth estimates get revised down, commodity prices will fall and Australia's exports and economy will slow. Putting large downward pressure on commodity prices, is the high possibility of a technical recession in the US, Eurozone and Japan. Indeed, a global recession is certainly a real possibility. Because the AUD is a very liquid currency, participants can ride the slowing global growth-commodity price cycle by selling the AUD.

(3) In times of risk aversion, the currencies of current account deficit countries tend to get sold and the currencies of current account surplus countries tend to get bought. Rising credit costs raise the costs of funding current account deficits, even if the ability to fund the deficit is not directly under the threat. Nevertheless, rising risk aversion leads participants to avoid the additional risk that current account deficit's bring to the equation, by selling the AUD.

(4) As global growth slows, the RBA reduces interest rates to insulate Australia's economy from the slowing global environment.  Unless the current account deficit falls at the same time, the risk premium on Australia's interest rates is effectively reduced as interest rates fall. Hence, a lower AUD is required to compensate incoming investors willing to fund the current account deficit, for the lower interest rate (risk premium) environment.

(5) The USD is rising because demand for USD has increased exponentially as local US banks and foreign banks with US$ loan exposure scramble to appropriately match US$ denominated funding requirements (matching US$ assets and liabilities) and support US$ denominated capital adequacy ratios. Consequently, US institutions with an offshore presence are repatriating USD and foreign institutions with local exposure in the US are gathering USD to meet US$ funding requirements. The USD is also rising because the US authorities are seen to be addressing the credit crisis. There is a perception that the US economy, first into the downturn is likely to be first out. Certainly the US economy recorded stronger GDP growth than most of the industrialised world in Q2. While Q3 growth is less certain, large interest rate cuts are expected from the ECB and BoE putting downward pressure on those currencies, as their respective authorities grapple to deal with the credit crisis. A stronger USD is putting downward pressure on the AUD.

** Since the introduction of the euro in January 1999, the record low has been 0.5175. If we use a proxy for EUR (pre 1999), the record low is 0.4902, reached in September 1992.

This is my point exactly. There are no facts for what is going to happen in the future. When a newbie enters this site looking for info. I believe they should hear from both sides. That consists of facts,past history,relevent news and happenings and peoples ideas on what will happen next. But when they are bombed with information and told it 100% will happen. I do not believe that is right. When a individual from another country starts to tell someone there $500,000 house will be worth less than half in a year. I believe that to be wrong. Sure by all means explain why you believe this could happen but  keep it real.

You can't really blame Scamp for all that doom and gloom, after all he is just regurgitating the stuff that he reads on the other forum without realizing that he is not getting a balance view in there.

I like that, a die hard property optimist.
That's funny because up to 6 months ago the wife would call me a stock market junkie.

Life is good, there is nothing you can do about the situation in the financial world so why worry about nothing and give yourself an ulcer ?  

I won't get an ulcer about financial collapse – it's exactly what I've been waiting for, remember. The less money drives descision making in Australia, the better as far as I am concerned. I get ulcers when it looks like the market is recovering:)

So I guess for me, at the moment, life is doubley good.

All crap aside. These are very interesting times and if you are under 30 you are about to see a environment that who have not seen before. Am i worried. Yes. It would be stupid not to be. Am i happy with my position. Yes. I have a good buffer,secure job,50% LVR and loans approved to buy more if a bargain appears.Fact is life goes on,Bad times pass. You must look at this as a time to keep safe but also look for opportunities.

And also dont forget to enjoy what this country has to offer outside of investing. You dont have to be rich to enjoy everything.Although i did just buy a 996 ducati yesterday. Man i love this bike.

devo76 wrote:

.Although i did just buy a 996 ducati yesterday. Man i love this bike.

You lucky bugger, did you buy red so it would go faster. Unfortunately I had to sell my bike(not enough use), old age, nagging wife, and children catch up with you.

Thats the one. Jap performance with the style of a harley. Tough v twin. Plus if you buy the right model they are actually going up in value.I have nice mountains plus coastal roads close buy. Great area to ride. I was lucky as Australian muscle cars also experianced a boom over the last few years allowing me to make over $100,000 profit from a old commodore. I bought a nice bike and put the rest of my loans.This weekend im going fishing off shore, then a party at a friends. Tomorrow im skydiving then taking my dirt bike bush out to a old Mining town a few klms away. life is good.

Alani, we have already seen the biggest property boom in Australia's history and that was bigger than future growth can support. Unless wages double in the next 10 years it is very unlikely that we will see another boom bigger than we just have.

If there are such undersupply issues, why is so much stock for sale?

It is true, however, that in 5 years or so prices should start rising agin from whatever place they bottom out at over the next 2.

  hi i like your posts you have your head still on top of your shoulders and your doing things in the way that you will not loose

not like some of these negative people on here most of you talk a whole lotta shit.

if i listened to people as i was growing up i would probaly be broke today. don't start your own business you have a good job yea what making $12.50 per hour. don't expand your business but i did and doubled my profits. then those same people were saying don't sell your business your doing so well but i did because i could see the economy was going to crap out and it has and the work has dried up. then people said dont move to oz why not the weather is better and i go there for 2 months a year for a holiday. ok then you want to transfer all your nz cash over to oz if you dont you will loose thousands and if i do ile loose thousands so what did i do transfered enough to set my self up buy a car furniture and have a little play money but that transer hurt 79cents to the dollar then i sat and watched the housing market as well as the exchange rates what happend the exchange rate got good for me 90 cents to the dollar then droped to 87cents o shit o well ile catch it next time ile lock in 92 cents it mite bounce back and it did on saturday.
so i beleive do whats best for you and don't always take other peoples advice most of them havn't done it them selves so how would they no if its going to work or not

my 2cents with the economy 30% drop in house prices from its peak give or take depending on where you are in oz. you may see the odd 50% drop if a fool paid way to much when it peaked. i looked at a bunch of industrial units 3 months ago and offered 35% less than the asking price it was refused so i walked away ive just been offered them for 20% below what they wanted i turned it down an will now sit and wait till they realy hurt as they have not leased any of them or sold any of them in 3 months

hopefully you under stood most of this my writing aint the best since i left school at 13
thanks for reading