- ummester wrote:[
But what if he's right? Will everyone else retire?
Sometimes he is a bit harsh but Australian is long overdue for a correction in property prices – I think anyone who can't see that is in denial.
Scamp ? Is that you playing tricks again ?
harb wrote:ummester wrote:[But what if he's right? Will everyone else retire?
Sometimes he is a bit harsh but Australian is long overdue for a correction in property prices – I think anyone who can't see that is in denial.
Scamp ? Is that you playing tricks again ?
I am not Scamp – I don't wear clogs.
yarpos wrote:CPI is driven by 90 different classifications. housing (rents and mortgages) is just one of them and not the single key driver of inflation.BTW inflation isnt that high, 4 and a bit given inflated borrowing global costs and elevated fuel costs couldnt be called disaster.
Hi Yarpos,
I wasn't talking about CPI, I was talking about inflation. Houseprices aren't even IN the CPI, which is why you 'think' inflation is only at 4%. If oil prices and house prices and all the other high costs were taken up in the CPI , you'd see CPI of 10% or more. ( a lot more )
tuggerwaugh wrote:hey scamp…
by the sounds of it as soon as interests rates do go down you will have no credibility left on here at all…you might just have to retire to that deep dark hole where you come up with all these dark predictions….good luck with thatI never said interest rates won't go down. I said they wouldn't go down this month. I never said there would not be a property boom either ( just in case you start to bring that up ).
In fact : Yes, interest rates WILL go down ( probably halfway 2009 when Australia gets into recession ). There WILL be a next property boom. ( probably in 2012 , when this mess has been cleared up ).
That doesn't mean that I say that in 2012 the houseprices will be higher than they are now, please don't misread my posts, read them carefully. It's more something like :house price in 2007 : 500.000 ( the top of the bubble )
house price in 2011 : 300.000 ( oh my god… houseprices crashed )
house price in 2012 : 340.000 ( the next boom )
house price in 2018 : 500.000
house price in 2020 : 700.000 ( the top of the bubble )
house price in 2023 : 500.000 ( oh my god… houseprices crashed )Could be something like that… ( the numbers are fictional )
ummester wrote:Here is an article on the (almost) 900000 empty houses.http://www.hotspotting.com.au/index.php?act=viewArticle&productId=351
Methinks they have mostly been purchased for capital gains (over the past 5 years) but as that is no longer a reality will all find there way back to either the rental market or for sale soon. In some rare cases, the owners may still even sell at a profit if they were purchased long enough ago.
Thats only the garbage from Census night. Take out the holiday homes and the ones where the occupants didn't want to fill in the Census form and lied about the property being vacant and you'd be lucky to have half that numbers.
How many posters on this forum completed the last Census correctly ?ummester wrote:I am not Scamp – I don't wear clogs.
harb wrote:Thats only the garbage from Census night. Take out the holiday homes and the ones where the occupants didn't want to fill in the Census form and lied about the property being vacant and you'd be lucky to have half that numbers.
How many posters on this forum completed the last Census correctly ?Even half those numbers are enough to negate a 'rental crisis'.
ummester wrote:Even half those numbers are enough to negate a 'rental crisis'.
Well if you put it this way then I have to agree with you and Scamp . As long as you have people prepared to make the move to Tumbarumba then yes, there are plenty houses available and there is no rental crisis. Now all you need is to find someone who wants to move there or at least someone we can force to move there as part of a conditional visa approval. Preferably someone working in the IT industry who does not need to commute to work each day and can be productive over a dialup line.
harb wrote:Well if you put it this way then I have to agree with you and Scamp . As long as you have people prepared to make the move to Tumbarumba then yes, there are plenty houses available and there is no rental crisis. Now all you need is to find someone who wants to move there or at least someone we can force to move there as part of a conditional visa approval. Preferably someone working in the IT industry who does not need to commute to work each day and can be productive over a dialup line.Tumbarumba is still overpriced. Why are you so in denial about this, don't you want this country to have a more stable economic future? Don't you want your kids to be able to plan futures for themselves?
SMH today page 7 "Interest rate cuts are on the cards at last" by Jessica Irvine – quotes Macquarie Bank boss Rory Robertson stating that "An RBA cut in September now is given. The only question is whether it's 25 basis points or 50 basis points" And he alledgely stated that he expected rates to fall by between 1 and 1.5 per cent in the coming year" ref: http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/interest-rate-cuts-are-on-the-cards-at-last/2008/08/05/1217702042543.html
Break out the bubbly!@!! At least the upward pressure has stabilised.
ummester wrote:Tumbarumba is still overpriced.
How do you figure that out ? The average worker could easily afford to buy there on less then a years income. How is that overpriced ?
harb wrote:ummester wrote:Tumbarumba is still overpriced.
How do you figure that out ? The average worker could easily afford to buy there on less then a years income. How is that overpriced ?
Does the average worker earn 300.000 AUD$ ?
The average houseprice in Tumbarumba is 300.000. Some are way over that.
What do you mean, overpriced ?Scamp wrote:yarpos wrote:CPI is driven by 90 different classifications. housing (rents and mortgages) is just one of them and not the single key driver of inflation.BTW inflation isnt that high, 4 and a bit given inflated borrowing global costs and elevated fuel costs couldnt be called disaster.
Hi Yarpos,
I wasn't talking about CPI, I was talking about inflation. Houseprices aren't even IN the CPI, which is why you 'think' inflation is only at 4%. If oil prices and house prices and all the other high costs were taken up in the CPI , you'd see CPI of 10% or more. ( a lot more )
cost of housing (rents, interest) is in the CPI actually, as is transportation related costs including fuel. Its a weighted basket of items as none of us spends all our income on these items (however much we bleat) . You can make up your own number if you wish, why stop now.
harb wrote:ummester wrote:Tumbarumba is still overpriced.
How do you figure that out ? The average worker could easily afford to buy there on less then a years income. How is that overpriced ?
Yea, if there was any work in Tumbarumba…. Tumbarumba is priced correctly for a suburb of a capital city, not an area with decreasing population and employment.
Awsome name though…. Tumbarumba, just rolls of the tongue.
ummester wrote:Awsome name though…. Tumbarumba, just rolls of the tongue.
Yeah, was going to write Cobar or Wilcannia but that didn't sound right. The RE agents listed on RE.com must be wondering why the sudden interest in Tumbarumba. You think I should write to the council and ask for a carton of VB, for making Tumbarumba famous ?
Scamp wrote:The average houseprice in Tumbarumba is 300.000. Some are way over that.
Ahhh, you see what a bit of advertising on the right forums can do to prices ? Not to worry, I have a few more for you but don't want to mention them on this forum until you get here.
Scamp, you're getting greedier by the day and soon you'll be turning into one of us. – an evil specufestor.
First you wanted something affordable, then you just wanted something nice, now you want 20 -30 acres as well. You could easily pick up the one below for the average worker's income , give it a paint job and then flog it for the 300K you mentioned. Should be the easiest 200K you've ever made.Auction Thu 21-Aug-08 4pm
101 WINTON STREET TUMBARUMBAOld 2 bedroom cottage,
Close to all amenities,
Lockable shed,
Block size of 670.3m2,Auction – 21 August 2008 – 4.00pm,
Council Chambers – Bridge Street Tumbarumba.Tumbarumba is too far from….1. decent snow, 2. Bunnings, 3. Macdonalds (Gundagai or Albury) So are you expecting renters to drive to Batlow to pick apples and earning $120 a day during February to April? Or maybe drive a little further on winter slippery potholed roads to the sawmill at Tumut? Maybe I missed the big employment generators each time I've cycled toured through Tumba.
yarpos wrote:Scamp wrote:yarpos wrote:CPI is driven by 90 different classifications. housing (rents and mortgages) is just one of them and not the single key driver of inflation.BTW inflation isnt that high, 4 and a bit given inflated borrowing global costs and elevated fuel costs couldnt be called disaster.
Hi Yarpos,
I wasn't talking about CPI, I was talking about inflation. Houseprices aren't even IN the CPI, which is why you 'think' inflation is only at 4%. If oil prices and house prices and all the other high costs were taken up in the CPI , you'd see CPI of 10% or more. ( a lot more )
cost of housing (rents, interest) is in the CPI actually, as is transportation related costs including fuel. Its a weighted basket of items as none of us spends all our income on these items (however much we bleat) . You can make up your own number if you wish, why stop now.
Please learn your own economics : Housing costs are not in the CPI. End of story, this is an absolute, just look it up before you post nonsense like this.
"Please learn your own economics : Housing costs are not in the CPI. End of story, this is an absolute, just look it up before you post nonsense like this."Now I'm confused.
elkam wrote:
"Please learn your own economics : Housing costs are not in the CPI. End of story, this is an absolute, just look it up before you post nonsense like this."Now I'm confused.
Like I said, Housing costs are not in the CPI. What they mean with 'housing' is probably the energy costs to warm up the house. House prices AND interest paid are NOT.. I repeat.. NOT. in the CPI.
Here you go :
… that the CPI be structured more like a cost-of-living index, requiring that the way it accounts for long-lived assets or durable goods be changed. This way, the CPI would capture only the cost of consuming owner-occupied housing services and not recognize the investment dimension of owning a house.
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