- yarpos wrote:we are we all living ? under a corrugated iron sheet in a creek bed somewhere?
I think there are many residential propertys purchased for capital investment only and now that capital isn't climbing so fast these are starting to hit the market – thus showing an increase in available property.
Many young renters that are used to living by themselves are starting to share to save cash.
Families that have to foreclose are moving back in with parents that own thier property.
There are many places people are going but over all living conditions are changing.
Scamp wrote:I have done the research, and there are 900.000 EMPTY HOUSES. EMPTY… NOT USED… 900.000 !!…And just how many of this 900.000 are holiday homes ? There are at least 30 "empty" houses on my street alone and possibly over 200 in the whole suburb. The owners only use them a few weeks a year, Xmas and Easter holidays and occasionally over a weekend or two. They don't mind having up to $1M tied up in them or having to pay for rates,insurance, lawn mowing,etc. and keeping them empty most of the time. There must be tens of thousands of owners with EMPTY houses like these all over the country but I wouldn't count on many of them to come onto the market or join the rental pool any time soon.
Also, tell me you didn't based your "research" on the garbage collected by ABS during the last Census ?
You may not be aware of it but in the last 2 decades or so the questions in the Census forms have become more and more intrusive, to the point were on the last one you also had to put down your name. The result of all this invasion of privacy is that now there are a lot more houses "vacant and unoccupied" during a Census night.
I will have to tell all the people in my local area looking for good accomodation that its all in there head. Im sure they will have some choice words to say back
True official rates look set to fall but can banks afford to cut when their funding costs are so much higher – Just have a look at whats on offer with term deposits and online accounts offering around 8 per cent banks would have to add their profit margins of around 1.5 per cent meaning 9.5 per cent AND this doesn't include the cost of obtaining funds from overseas which doesn't look like it will change in the next 18 months. IF bank rates drop then official amounts will have to drop a lot more in comparison
devo76 wrote:I will have to tell all the people in my local area looking for good accomodation that its all in there head. Im sure they will have some choice words to say back
I think that anyone looking to either buy or rent right now is still going to get shafted. If they can't wait or live with a relative or friend to ride it out they will have to suck it up.
Just tell them to make sure they only sign short term leases and give themselves the option of changing landlords if rental prices drop in 6 months or so.
The RBA looks at underlying inflation – which strips out volatile price movements – when it comes to making decisions on interest rates. Underlying inflation was in line with expectations, growing 4.4 per cent for the year ended June, up from 4.25 per cent for the March year.
The last time inflation was this high was September 1991.
The RBA has a target of keeping inflation within a 2-3 per cent growth band
Scamp, true, but the interesting point about the current (global) inflation debate is whether the inflation can actually be effectively influenced by reserve bank rates – some believe firmly that the current global inflation is due to high energy and food prices which are due to accelereated demand/growth in emerging markets and that therefore increasing base rates is unlikely to make any real difference and these individuals argue that avoid further economic damage base rates should be lowered…
I expect the RBA to hold the rates for now, but probably start indicating when they think rates can come down so that an expectation of lower rates is being built into the market… but heck I might be completely wrong!
I THINK YOU ARE RIGHT.
Surprise surprise : Interest rates didn't move down.
Here is an article on the (almost) 900000 empty houses.
http://www.hotspotting.com.au/index.php?act=viewArticle&productId=351
Methinks they have mostly been purchased for capital gains (over the past 5 years) but as that is no longer a reality will all find there way back to either the rental market or for sale soon. In some rare cases, the owners may still even sell at a profit if they were purchased long enough ago.
devo76 wrote:Well they sure as s##t didnt go up either.I never said they would go up. I just was the ONLY one who said "RBA will *NOT* lower the rates this month"
That being said, I think that the best thing RBA can do now is RAISE the interest rates.The RBA will most probably let the interest rates stay put for a while because they don't want the be the scapegoats. Banks on the other hand will keep raising interest rates.
The whole media hype about lowering the interest rates is a plea for mercy from the overleveraged.
Of the famous words of W. Buffett : We will now see who has been swimming naked.
ummester wrote:Here is an article on the (almost) 900000 empty houses.http://www.hotspotting.com.au/index.php?act=viewArticle&productId=351
Methinks they have mostly been purchased for capital gains (over the past 5 years) but as that is no longer a reality will all find there way back to either the rental market or for sale soon. In some rare cases, the owners may still even sell at a profit if they were purchased long enough ago.
Aha.. I used other data sources and came to 870.000 empty dwellings in my own research.
Thanks for that article ummester.I like to see the interest rates maintain at 7.25% till early next year..
It will not move that soon… be real.. with inflation rate hitting 4.5%…Not at least it started to come down.
The unemployment rate is rising…Love to see that in the current property market…on above equation.
do you know WHY inflation is so high ?
It's all the money that Australia printed to finance overpriced houseprices.The houses are overpriced, THAT is the inflation you guys experience.
Lower houseprices = lower inflation = lower interest rates.Not the other way around.
CPI is driven by 90 different classifications. housing (rents and mortgages) is just one of them and not the single key driver of inflation.
BTW inflation isnt that high, 4 and a bit given inflated borrowing global costs and elevated fuel costs couldnt be called disaster.
According to a report written by a close friend of mine & his collegues at the Boston Consulting Group in March 2008 about Global Banking, Australian banks are some of the most profitable in the world currently, by a significant margin.
hey scamp…
by the sounds of it as soon as interests rates do go down you will have no credibility left on here at all…you might just have to retire to that deep dark hole where you come up with all these dark predictions….good luck with that
tuggerwaugh wrote:hey scamp…by the sounds of it as soon as interests rates do go down you will have no credibility left on here at all…you might just have to retire to that deep dark hole where you come up with all these dark predictions….good luck with that
But what if he's right? Will everyone else retire?
Sometimes he is a bit harsh but Australian is long overdue for a correction in property prices – I think anyone who can't see that is in denial.
Both will happen … a correction in house prices and a corresponding decline in interest rates. Typical cycle.
The key question really is how long and how deep and for a large degree that will depend on what unemployment does.I think the BRICs and other emerging markets will slow in growth but continue to grow, that will slow demand for commodities but it will stay robust, commodity prices will drop from their peaks (like oil has already done) but they will still remain high compared to a few years ago and hence a large part of the Australian economy will remain strong and unemployment in certain states will suffer less than in other states and therefore I think we'll see a wide spread in declines between states. This will make it difficult for the RBA to manage rates as inflation will stay above target due to high but not extreme commodity prices so the reduction in interest rates will be slow.
US, UK and continental Europe will suffer most with. Canada, Australia will tread water but keep their heads above water and emerging markets will continue to grow, but some will suffer a severe correction in the process.
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