Interesting read in the Weekend Australian Business section Sat July 5th with a review by many of Australia's leading financial lenders. At best the market is expected to flatline for 1-2 years. Most expect overheated markets like Perth to reduce 10%. One forecast was for a 30% decline. Some interesting discussion comparing the differences between the US, UK and Oz. We still have record numbers of immigrants. Last year we had a record number of migrants enter the country, more than any other year in white Australian history. There is a growing downturn in the building of houses so demand is expected to remain high. A warning or two. Property developers could be the ones to feel some real pain if prices decline and sales are delayed. Also some medium term views to the baby boomers who may start to dump houses over the next decade to pay for their retirements and expensive medical treatments. Plenty of food for thought. Even the experts are unsure. There is a general agreement that prices will stagnate for 1-2 years at least with moderate reduction in prices expected.
CHIS,
No one can predict the future, experts get it wrong just as much as the novice.However, a lot of people and many on this forum including myself are expecting housing to fall over the next few months or even years. It's not hard to see ( which is something most people do not ) that inflation of good and services is getting away from peoples salary increases. Oil is very expensive and feeds back to most items we use in modern society. Businesses are cutting back of expansions and profits falling ( except maybe in the mining – but its only 7% of GDP ).
Just look at the sharemarket – most people do not understand what is happening to their superannuation until about August when their statements come out and they find its gone down 10% from last year. Thus another year or two or working before retirement, people do not see things coming until its happened, all these 5 year cheap loans are starting to mature and they are going from 6% to 9.5%, how are they going to pay the extra few hundred dollars a month?If you are thinking of buying now – forget it – just wait and see the prices falling.
It's probably good advice to observe the market for a while.
I accept nobody can read the future and it's fascinating to read the differences of opinion from people involved in the industry. I posted it for peoples interest, not because I believe any view in particular. There was consistent gloom for 1-2 years with only the magnitude varying.Then again, there is a popular saying that "now is always the right time in real estate" and "time in the market is better than market timing"
It does look as though house prices may fall in some areas. There are parts of the Australian market in positive growth however. It is always driven by demand
CHIS,
Yes, and
"The best time to buy real estate is yesterday, the next best time is now and the worst time is tomorrow"but maybe they are only true for the past, and the future may not be the same as the past!
This has been the fear of generations. As a child and for the last two decades I have heard people say…………."I'm waiting till house prices come down". Not smart. However, I see your point. There are some different circumstances surrounding property now. A worldwide downturn. An overheated Australian market where the buyers wages have been stretched so far that mortgage repayments are difficult. There is only so much the market can pay and it seems we have reached this point
But.. but… ANZ told us that houseprices will boom again very soon !!
How is this possible ? Have they lied to us ?… oh no how can they be so evil, it's almost like ANZ will tumble over soon… oooh no poor ANZ.
You must be logged in to reply to this topic. If you don't have an account, you can register here.
