All Topics / Help Needed! / What if I made a mistake in buying?

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  • Profile photo of reddyreddy
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    @reddy
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    HI EVERYONE,

    I NEED HELP REGARDING MY PROPERTY , IN OCT 07 I BOUGHT A PROPERTY IN HOPERS CROSSING IN MELBOURNE WHICH IS MY FIRST PROPERTY. THE RENTAL MARKET IS GOOD IN HOPPERS CROSSING BUT CAPITAL GAINS ARE LESS I CAUGHT UP IN A SITUATION WHERE  WETHER TO KEEP THIS PROPERTY OR  SELL THIS PROPERTY AND BUY IN GOOD AREA WHERE CAPTIAL GAINS ARE GUD.IT WILL BE GOOD IDEA TO KEEP THE PROPERTY OR SELL? CAN SOME ONE SUGGEST ON THIS ISSUE.

    REGARDS
    REDDY

    Profile photo of blogsblogs
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    What are you worried about? Everyone knows property doubles every 7 years…..

    Profile photo of yarposyarpos
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    reddy wrote:
    HI EVERYONE,

    I NEED HELP REGARDING MY PROPERTY , IN OCT 07 I BOUGHT A PROPERTY IN HOPERS CROSSING IN MELBOURNE WHICH IS MY FIRST PROPERTY. THE RENTAL MARKET IS GOOD IN HOPPERS CROSSING BUT CAPITAL GAINS ARE LESS I CAUGHT UP IN A SITUATION WHERE  WETHER TO KEEP THIS PROPERTY OR  SELL THIS PROPERTY AND BUY IN GOOD AREA WHERE CAPTIAL GAINS ARE GUD.IT WILL BE GOOD IDEA TO KEEP THE PROPERTY OR SELL? CAN SOME ONE SUGGEST ON THIS ISSUE.

    REGARDS
    REDDY

    You havent provided enough info for anyone to help (apart from hijacking someone elses thread and not starting your own).

    Are you $ stressed in holding the property?  If not , then hold it and buy as you propose,  but for heavens sake do some better research.   Have you looked at adding value to the property,  sometimes it just doesnt happen you have to create it.

    If you are stressed but can afford the selling expenses then sell and take the probable loss and lesson from the exercise.

    You dont seem to view property as a long term venture , so it may not be good for you.   There are scenarios where quick buy/sell works ,  but oops it not really what I thought isnt one of them.

    Profile photo of L.A AussieL.A Aussie
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    Scamp wrote:
    It's a shame that property investors gone wrong never bother posting here, it would certainly fire up the discussion. I'm not going to elaborate on why the property market is crashing, suffice to say that it will crash much harder and faster than anyone expected ( well.. except perhaps me ), and don't expect a minimal 10% or 20% drop, expect 50% drops all over Australia.

    Unemployment will rise ( as I said months ago ), and with it, we're in for some heavy duty revamping of the housing market. 50% crash *at least*. ( sydney is already at 35% crash now btw.. , so we're well on our way ).

    I think you'll find that there are plenty of investors here who have "gone wrong".

    Not all will admit it directly, but some will, and have.

    Oh, but you haven't been around long enough to know that, and you're too busy telling us all the sky is falling to read back through older posts to see who has done what.

    Most will attempt to educate the less experienced in the dangers that exist, and guide them down a safer path using the benefit of their experience and mistakes without actually saying "don't do what I did".

    I am one of these people, but I have fessed up to some mistakes in the past.

    My mistakes are numerous, but have all been minor (thankfully), and I have come out the other end in a very good position and have learned from my mistakes.

    You, on the other hand, are simply a nuisance, without any past experience that we are aware of, with nothing constructive to add other than wild predictions.

    Oh, I forgot; you said to buy gold.

    Thanks for that pearl.

    Profile photo of ScampScamp
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    L.A Aussie wrote:
    Oh, I forgot; you said to buy gold.
    Thanks for that pearl.

    You're welcome. Gold is still the safest investment in these times.
    I predict goldprice higher than 1100, possibly higher than 1200 by march 2009 ( write it down somewhere ). That's about 20% increase.

    Speak to you in January 2009 about that prediction.

    Profile photo of quickchickquickchick
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    Re Reddys' question: I strongly recommend some "boring" points:

    Have an investment strategy. Reasons to invest in property include, 1. for cashflow, 2. for capital growth. (3. both, it is possible!)
    4. as a tax write-off (negative gearing, write your losses off and hope for capital growth to make it worthwhile in the long run).

    This way, you'll know if your property is performing according to your strategy. If not, probably time to sell! ie if its making a loss. 
    As Steve would advise, its not that easy to buy positive cashflow, so what you buy needs to be able to have value added by you. ie choose carefully to buy something you can improve to meet your target.

    As Scamp would love to say, property CAN drop in price eg Western Sydney, has dropped by about 25% over last few years. But what he (she?) won't tell you is that it is most unlikely to drop on a hurry. Whereas gold, or share prices, can drop much more quickly than it climbs (see sharemarket charts, and compare!).  Boring strategy no 2. is, have a stop loss (for shares) or cut off limit for property, eg if it drops by more than 7.5% in value, I'll sell.  By this time, your investment by definition would then be a LIABILITY! Value is a bit subjective, but even a valuation by 2 different real estate agents (free!) will give you a fair indication.  You also need to have a time-line in mind. (Few properties in suburbia will appreciate by much in 9 months, Reddy!)

    The only 100% sure way to know which area will be good for capital growth is hindsight (applies to sharemarket too).
    But you can increase your "luck" enormously by reading and learning. We have all made some mistakes along the way, but generally not disastrously, just enough to learn something! But cheaper to learn from someone else… read Steve's last book, and listen to CD. 

    The worst investment choice is arguably NOT to invest.  Currently you may actually get better interest with money in  the bank, but this is quite uncommon! Mostly, bank interest is less than  inflation (before bank fees), so not a good investment.
    The start of a good investment is to buy a property with good potential, at a bit below the market price.
     
    All my opinion, (and learned from others), but it has worked, and is working for me!

    quickchick.    
     

    Profile photo of god_of_moneygod_of_money
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    Hei blogs
    Where did you pull out that stupid statement…property doubles every 7 years… ??
    Seems like from property spruikers… quoting that statement…
    This doubling statement had caused lots of problem among property investors..
    Poor investors get sucked in from spruikers…promising doubling price every 7 years..

    Profile photo of ScampScamp
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    god of money : I think blogs was being sarcastic :P
    Everyone knows that property cannot double every 7 years. The simple reason ? Because wages don't double every 7 years, and they have a direct relationship ! It's really that simple.
    That said, I agree with most of what Chick says, except the fact that houseprices cannot drop quickly.
    The whole problem is that people see too late that their house has dropped 50K-100K, they only notice 1 year later, and by that time, it might have dropped another 100K already. The only 'benefit' to this, is that starting investors or 'suckers' will buy up the house are the already too high price. Something that has been done for the last 20 years. Up till now, there was no problem since economy does well, oil was cheap, immigration was high and you could borrow more and more. On top of this, it was 'common knowledge' that houseprices always double every 7 years, so it didn't matter what you bought : 7 years later you would be a millionaire anyway. This led people to get themselves in debt over their heads, and the first few people are now starting to feel the pain.

    The times have changed : House prices no longer go up, and are no longer an excuse for banks to lend you more than you could afford. On top of this, oil is hugely expensive, stock market is dying, war between USA and Iran is looming ( hence I say gold is a good investment ) and inflation is crazy. On top of all this, the whole financial system is in a huge collapse as we speak, and we have a huge credit crisis.

    I don't mean to say "the end is nigh"… but I think anyone who thinks about it will see that indeed "The end is nigh" , financially speaking at least.

    Profile photo of Tony BTony B
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    Reddy
    I know the area you are in, Hoppers C.Gain has not been great nor is it the best part of Melbourne, if you know what I mean. If you had brought in 03 it would have been diffrent. These area are not great capital gain areas. They are cheap for a reasion, cheap to buy into and cheap when you sell. May I ask how much thourght you put into this purchase before your brought. Domains report said Hoppers had gone back by 1.5 %.   If you have borrowed 100% your rent income may not even cover your intrest on the loan.  If the place is costing you too much each week to cover then hey sorry to say it but bite the bullett and put it on the market. Buying costs & selling costs + your intrest will most likey eat any profit you make and since you have not had it a year you dont stand to make any anyway.    What do you think will be the out come??????  Even if you paid cash for the place and are getting a 10% rental on the value of the place & it cost you $300K thats only 15,600  p.a before running cost and income tax. Thats a 5.2 % real return before tax & running costs.  You can get 8.45% at the bank with no risk & no running costs.

    WILL BE GOOD IDEA TO KEEP THE PROPERTY OR SELL?

    If you keep it its not a great investment is it?  If you sell it you may be very disapointed with the result. Only you can make the most suitable decision.  Not everyone makes money from realestate in fact some loose. I hope you make the right choice and you are happy with it.
    All the best
    Tony………………………….  

    Profile photo of reddyreddy
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    HI,
    Tony thank u for your suggestions i BOUGHT that PROPERTY on private sale for $227000 and i am living in there now, i borrowed 80% loan. Now i got offer for $242000 after expenses i am getting $235000.by selling it NO GAIN and NO LOSS because i was sub letting for students.

    The rental yeild for that property is 5.4% but the capital growth is not worth, i thought to invest in better locastion for good capital growth.

    regards
    Reddy

    Profile photo of reddyreddy
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    HI,
    Tony thank u for your suggestions i BOUGHT that PROPERTY on private sale for $227000 and i am living in there now, i borrowed 80% loan. Now i got offer for $242000 after expenses i am getting $235000.by selling it NO GAIN and NO LOSS because i was sub letting for students.

    The rental yeild for that property is 5.4% but the capital growth is not worth, i thought to invest in better locastion for good capital growth.

    regards
    Reddy

    Profile photo of quickchickquickchick
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    Hi Reddy.
    Just read your last entry, seems like a reasonable idea.
    Try one of the Porperty investment magazines in your newsagent, they often have  a guide in the back of recent (ie monthly) compared to yearly prices in areas across Aus. Helpful, but not prescriptive.
    I have found that an area that has gone ahead eg 10% average cap growth for last 4 yrs, may not keep this up consistently. eg then you buy it, and it goes back 2% that next yr! Sometimes wise to look for areas that have gone ahead, then buy in a surrounding (but not overinflated) area a suburb  away (See Steve's latest book.)
    Be aware that the areas regarded as string capital growth are traditionally closer to town, ie more expensive, and rental return may be worse percentage wise, than  outer area eg Hoppers Crossing.

    Good luck (always an element of luck involved!)

    Quickchick.  

    Profile photo of Tony BTony B
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    Reddy

    Im glad to hear you may not loose on this deal. Look at it this way use this as an experiment for the next place you buy. I feel we all can learn from it. You can now see how fine a line it is between making a profit or loss. My concern is this Why invest in real estate just and I mean just to break even and have to borrow 80% of 227,000 being around 180,000 to do it. Forget about the concept of negive gearing this is what the real estate agent will say to you when you show them that you have done you home work and you are loosing money.

    I comend you on effort, risk & willingness to have a go, well done. Its easy to sit back and do nothing and much safer. Finding a property, area with capital growth is getting harder. Five years ago much easyer as property anywhere was going up but not now.  I was not far off in my 5.2% rent return try to remember this figure is EBIT before intrest & tax and running costs.  Reddy for what its worth my personal opinion is the margins are now to low and with an uncurtine economic enviroment rising intrest rates many people are pulling out of the market.  If you have to rely on renting rooms to students to break even why bother.  Im sure you have read scamps comments its not as bad as that "yet" but look at how many more properties are on the market and its not just in Hoppers its all over.  The 227,000 would have been a good buy for first home buyers as a PPOR to ride out the slow down in prices but when finance is around 9.50% and average C.G. are 2-12% EBIT I would not break my legs getting to the real estate agents office.

    I hope you have a better run with the next place & wish you all the best, lets know how it all works out for you.

    Regards

    Tony…………

    Profile photo of clubhondaclubhonda
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    Scamp wrote:
    L.A Aussie wrote:
    Oh, I forgot; you said to buy gold.
    Thanks for that pearl.

    You're welcome. Gold is still the safest investment in these times.
    I predict goldprice higher than 1100, possibly higher than 1200 by march 2009 ( write it down somewhere ). That's about 20% increase.

    Speak to you in January 2009 about that prediction.

    Sorry couldn't help getting sidetracked a bit, but you sound like one of those gold bugs lol… The biggest fuel for Gold prices right now is fear. Fear is basically the main driver pushing gold to its recent high. Underlying demand for the commodity itself isn't really there. Its not a bad thing to invest in for the short term, but I would get the hell out of it once the US markets bottoms out.

    Personally I'm waiting to go long LEAPS on gold puts once volatility stabilises.

    Profile photo of clubhondaclubhonda
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    reddy wrote:
    HI EVERYONE,

    I NEED HELP REGARDING MY PROPERTY , IN OCT 07 I BOUGHT A PROPERTY IN HOPERS CROSSING IN MELBOURNE WHICH IS MY FIRST PROPERTY. THE RENTAL MARKET IS GOOD IN HOPPERS CROSSING BUT CAPITAL GAINS ARE LESS I CAUGHT UP IN A SITUATION WHERE WETHER TO KEEP THIS PROPERTY OR SELL THIS PROPERTY AND BUY IN GOOD AREA WHERE CAPTIAL GAINS ARE GUD.IT WILL BE GOOD IDEA TO KEEP THE PROPERTY OR SELL? CAN SOME ONE SUGGEST ON THIS ISSUE.

    REGARDS
    REDDY

    Not to be blunt mate, but Hoppers is a real s***hole. I would get out of that location if I were you. With its high drugs/hoons/crime rates and extremely outer suburban location, there are more attractive locations.

    Profile photo of ScampScamp
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    Scamp wrote:
    L.A Aussie wrote:
    Oh, I forgot; you said to buy gold.
    Thanks for that pearl.

    You're welcome. Gold is still the safest investment in these times.
    I predict goldprice higher than 1100, possibly higher than 1200 by march 2009 ( write it down somewhere ). That's about 20% increase.

    Speak to you in January 2009 about that prediction.

    http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,28323,25076961-5013953,00.html

    Quote:

    The price has since risen by a third to almost $AUD1569 an ounce.

    Seems like I wasn't far off after all eh. It's 19 feb now and goldprices are at 1569$ already.
    My next tip is that it will only go up from here.

    I hope you guys took my advice in July 2008 seriously and didn't invest in shares or property.
    I can fill this post with bad news about property but I think it's clear to all that property will fall 50% total at least after this whole circus is over. ( and guess what : It hasn't even started yet )

    Profile photo of tanjaatanjaa
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    Scamp – I bet there are a few people who wish they had listened to you…. :)   how did you know all  this was coming? 

    Profile photo of tanjaatanjaa
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    I know you previously said this was going to last for years and years, but what about the rental market?  People still have to have somewhere to live……… What do you think is going to happen now in all areas?

    Profile photo of devo76devo76
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    Scamp.

    You actually have some good information to share. Some is complete s#@t but all can see this while other segments are very usefull. Its the way you put the information across. You come here and DEMAND our attention and proceed to bark at us that what you say WILL 100% HAPPEN.From what i can gather you do not have enough training,expieriance or years on this planet to be so certain. The smartest people in the world can not predict the future. Sure you can cut and past as many news clips and graphs as you want. The thing about graphs is they are either of past events or they are future speculation.Thats it.It has been shown many times over that what is expected to happen does not always happen. Public sentment is the variable that people cant predict. You and many like you bombard these investment sites looking for praise for your predictions.

    Were you that little boy at school that tried that little bit too hard to get the gold star of the teacher for correct answers. Are you the friend that cant help but to tell everyone what happens on the movie everyone is watching. Do you predict every sports games finishing score exactly because you know exactly how it will play out.You and people like you are nothing new. Not just on these forums but in everyday life. You are the one who sees negativity in everything and therefore feel drawn to tell anyone positive that they are wrong. Its a strange way to fill your time bit whatever floats your boat i guess.

    PS i think you may be right in some areas.
    #On average 5 to 25 % value drops across Australia.
    #Some larger  due to bad buying in the first place or overheated areas.
    #Some big drops due to over optimistic selling prices to start with so not really a drop.
    #Some places will plateau due to correct current values and solid fundamentals
    # some price rises due to cheap purchase prices and increased demand.
    #5 years time a solid upward trend will start again but not a boom.

    These are my predictions. Nothing more ,nothing less,Take them or leave them.

    Profile photo of WJ HookerWJ Hooker
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    Scamp,
                I agree with devo76, your theories are good reading, but no one can be sure. I would have thought house prices would have fallen quicker than what they have, I still think 20% drop this year and maybe next as well.

               It gets frustrating waiting for it to happen, wanting to buy, but at the moment its not worth buying with no capital gains any longer, so now need rental incomes of 10% to make it worthwhile. But I suppose will have to just wait a bit longer before buying.

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