Due to good growth/limited supply, experts are predicting significant Capital Gains over the next couple of years in many areas(Sydney/SE QLD etc).
I even heard a statement this morning that suggested it was a 'buyers' market – Due to the lack of investor competition out there. I went to 3 auctions on the weekend(2 for almost brand new dual zoned residential/commercial units with a 5.2% net rental return/city centre/capital city) rent return is based off discussions with agent after the failed auction at the 'ball park' price.
The first 2 auctions – resi/commercial units did not get 1 acceptable offer.
Third property duplex/townhouse sold at auction with just 1 bid(PPOR).
This is in a capital city that is predicting both capital and rental growth over the coming years.
Are clearance rates down nationwide due to a softening of the property market? and are these 'analysts' trying to drive a few extra sales with optimistic forecasts? Or is there growth to be had?
There are certain other contributors to these forums suggesting that a housing depreciation crisis(similar to US/UK) will be coming to a neighbourhood near you real soon, and while i dont debate the fact that when compared globally, Australian real estate is inflated(median wage/median house price). The issue of product VS demand issue isnt going away anytime soon, rents are going up etc etc.
I am planning my next investment and I want to hear what you guys think? Domestic or look further abroad?
Ultimately, does anyone else here think that the bum is going to fall out of the property market here in australia?
Answer – Just read the topic "Best advice:Don't invest into property:The Australian market is CRASHING" – it is still active after 14 pages – lots of good info.
Make sure that you consider both sides of the coin
Good argument there..yes .. lots of good info .. despite the tenor of some posts
like workforce, demographics and DISTRIBUTION will be crucial going forward (NSW for example experience it – but dont appear to understand it) ..
a good report from the fed dept of whatchamacallit .. used to be DEWR or something like that note that immigration .. while high .. isn't in the age groups we expected ..
Access Economics .. their march report (I do love economists that can write entertaining analysis – actually had me gigglin in parts) … note the impact of immigration on their past projections – it aint flash ..
most public sectors reckon that around 35-45% of their folk will retire in the next three years …. if ya extrapolate that .. one would figure that in time (unless they all be Geo Burns) .. they … ummm .. well …. die
is a big chunk of demand and investment holdings …
on the flip side, if immigration continues at same or increased levels … that means we go to countries we wouldn't normally consider in terms of quality workforce .. a lot of govt and other folk would need to sort out qual recog and so on .. afterall – think about it – most countries we recognise quals from were NATO allies (or repatriated nations) we ignore the rest – hence the sayin 'anglosaxon arrogance'
birth rates in that patch very very high (all of western world – past poor fertility rates are killin us now) ..
most of what one reads is the narrative of the symtoms
.. not the cause … I think Nicholson described it once in a clever script .. "I'm drownin, and your describin the water!" …a balanced policy, quality, commmunity expectation approach .. could mean the naysayers didn't read the play ..
if no change .. mayhaps they have ..
comparative points in the evolution of society and economic structures … WW2 (though we've soaked up all but very few of the female workforce) .. (and) .. 1300 – 1360 …(europe) .. check out the old 'eastern block' if ya can get past the politics – no 'baby boom' there .. some would argue, but for the policy makers of the day, our future (the correction) ..
All things have corrections … stock markets, housing, species .. and … us (western world) … not the first .. not the last …
am not a greenie in all things – but to think such cycles only impact 'other' stuff .. man (or is that person?) made or other .. is well .. sorta dumb …
I've yet to see the lovely graphs and so on that go back quite THAT far (1300s) .. but the population correction in europe around that time (no am not a historian) ended the feudal system in europe … that was them landholders (us) makin a shiteload from the 'tenants' (them) … and .. well .. history can, alas repeat itself
on the flip side, some states in Oz have had a huge jump in births last year (talkin 20% + here) ..
will the "*ss" fall out of it? … jury is still outlong term ..
next few years .. too shorta timeframe for me, I dont consider it
but the others here are right – there are strong statements, some even cogent, on either side .. but in the end .. to each their own
Cheers guys!
I guess that level of uncertainty surrounding a purchase is a little greater this time around. Thanks for your comments(and i welcome more).I might add that i had read the other post "Best advice:Don't invest into property:The Australian market is CRASHING" it does contain a lot of useful information, however I wanted peoples 'gut' feelings on this one?
Im still looking……… Yesterday, a friend of mine "Lowballed the hell" out of a vendor and apparently his offer was accepted. People still need to sell, incl developers(consider all those developments to be finished) and with the softening market perhaps there are several bargains out there to be had. It may just mean more leg work and creative thinking.
Just thinking out loud.
Cheers.
Hi patriotsoldier,
From the front line, I can tell you that yes, there has been a decline in the market, no doubt about that, but if you are a cash buyer, there is probably no better time to secure investment property. Interest rates, costs of living etc have had an affect on property values, and some sellers are offering considerable discounts in order to beat the banks in some situations. If you are looking to purchase on finance, i would be wary as there is uncertainty in regards to future rises in interest rates.
Buy when you don't Need to, low ball, and if you gain , hold.
Builders , typically look to unload , not hold, so probably this is the best avenue but be prepared to hold.
As ALWAYS seek Professional financial advice from your financial and tax experts
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