I've been coming here for a few weeks now and everyone here seems to be pretty level headed, intelligent individuals who happily share their experiences with the rest of us. For someone new to this stuff I've found your offerings valuable and enlightening and have e-mailed a few members privately and I've always been humbld by how readilly everyone is to share what they've done or are going through.
So my question is this :
Why are any of you smart people even paying any mind to what this fella Scamp says? (apologies for the assumption that you're a male Scamp no offence intended)
Scamp's a doom sayer born and bred and the likes of Scamp exist only because we let him. Best off to pay him no attention at all. You know what they say "ignore it and It will go away"
Scamp rarely has anything of substance to offer so I tend to read his offerings for entertainment value only. The rest of the people on this forum are far smarter, far more adaptable and a hell of a lot more positive than him. He's like one of those sea creatures that if you poke him her reacts.
So I say to you all :
Don't poke Scamp!
I've been coming here for a few weeks now and everyone here seems to be pretty level headed, intelligent individuals who happily share their experiences with the rest of us. For someone new to this stuff I've found your offerings valuable and enlightening and have e-mailed a few members privately and I've always been humbled by how readilly everyone is to share what they've done or are going through.
So my question is this :
Why are any of you smart people even paying any mind to what this fella Scamp says? (apologies for the assumption that you're a male Scamp no offence intended)
Scamp's a doom sayer born and bred and the likes of Scamp exist only because we let him. Best off to pay him no attention at all. You know what they say "ignore it and It will go away"
Scamp rarely has anything of substance to offer so I tend to read his offerings for entertainment value only. The rest of the people on this forum are far smarter, far more adaptable and a hell of a lot more positive than him. He's like one of those sea creatures that if you poke him he reacts.
So I say to you all :
Don't poke Scamp!
ErikH wrote:– and I don't know where you do your research, but your comments on immigration are way off the mark. NETT migration has increased from around 60,000 on average during the 70s to over 200,000 on average between 2003-2007 and there has been a very steady trend in that increase. To paraphrase yourself… "it's simple, just do the math, more people in, less people out and the population grows"
Can someone assist me in tracking down the source of this "net 200,000" number. The ABS shows net migration averaging 120K between 2000 & 2006, peaking at 135K
There *upper range* for forecasting in the 2008 yearbook is in the 140K range
So where is 200K coming from?
Bueller?
Anyone?AimHigher, why can't a downturn or correction be a positve thing? Perhaps the thought of property remaining at current price levels or going higher it is more doom and gloom than the thought of the prices going down.
It all depends on the majority view. If more than 50% of the applicable people in Australia currently have a house or mortgage, then doom and gloom would be a crash. If, however, more than 50% of applicable people aren't yet invested in the market, then a crash would be a godsend.
Here we go
http://www.rba.gov.au/PublicationsAndResearch/Bulletin/bu_may04/bu_0504_2.pdf
People now aged between 50 and 70 have far more to loose from a crash than the rest of Australia. If anything, the numbers have probably consolidated more around that age group in the 4 years since this report.
One man's doom is another man's boom, or so it would seem.
Yossarion, the inflated imigration numbers are probably spin be the Real Estate industry.
what a load of crap. I couldnt be bothered reading the whole post. Read enough though. We are a totally different market than the US and Europe.
Heard of the Mining Boom? We arent dependant on the US anymore. When China crashes thats when we are effected. Even if China crashes they will be relying on our resources so we will be still a relatively strong economic market.
I went on that forum that this scrump or whatever has come from. Have a read of some of the rubbish on there. Time to close the topic off. Everyone has made their points clear. Does this forum get moderated?
John S
WOW nice first post John, very imformative!! Close a thread becasue you dont agree and have nothing to back your point of veiw, lol nice……
29 pages mate. If I wanted a novel I would have gone down to Angus and Robertson.
PS. scrumpy = blogs ??
johnstal wrote:what a load of crap. I couldnt be bothered reading the whole post. Read enough though. We are a totally different market than the US and Europe.Heard of the Mining Boom? We arent dependant on the US anymore. When China crashes thats when we are effected. Even if China crashes they will be relying on our resources so we will be still a relatively strong economic market.
I went on that forum that this scrump or whatever has come from. Have a read of some of the rubbish on there. Time to close the topic off. Everyone has made their points clear. Does this forum get moderated?
John S
Why so defensive? It is unfair to request a thread be closed just because it does not concur with your POV. It's a free market. What are you, a REA that just got sacked?
Mining boom is over.
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24145898-462,00.html
Oh and I am not Scamp or Blogs. If you notice we have all debated each others points. We just agree on the overall trend the market is taking, not the details.
Face it, the Bears are coming out of their caves and the Bulls had better start running:)
ummester wrote:AimHigher, why can't a downturn or correction be a positve thing? Perhaps the thought of property remaining at current price levels or going higher it is more doom and gloom than the thought of the prices going down.It all depends on the majority view. If more than 50% of the applicable people in Australia currently have a house or mortgage, then doom and gloom would be a crash. If, however, more than 50% of applicable people aren't yet invested in the market, then a crash would be a godsend.
Here we go
http://www.rba.gov.au/PublicationsAndResearch/Bulletin/bu_may04/bu_0504_2.pdf
People now aged between 50 and 70 have far more to loose from a crash than the rest of Australia. If anything, the numbers have probably consolidated more around that age group in the 4 years since this report.
One man's doom is another man's boom, or so it would seem.
Yossarion, the inflated imigration numbers are probably spin be the Real Estate industry.
Ummster: Sorry but I have no idea where you're coming from. I never actually expressed an opinion on Scamps original posts topic. In fact you'll notice I didn't mention a thing about Scamps post in terms of the topic. This is becuase I don't beleive Scamp is either serious or informed. I'm all for seeing/hearing every side to every debate or issue, however I close down completely – as I'm sure many others do – when it's presented in such a silly way.
Scamp may well have some valid points but he does himself no favours when he posts in such a recationary way.
My post says nothing AT ALL about the topic so I'm at a loss to understand your post to me and what appears to be a question to me in terms of 'correcitons and downturns' and a supposed expressed opinon…???
Perhaps you have my post mixed up with someone elses?
Someone better tell the WA, SA and Qld governments about the boom being over then.
It seems you guys are the defensive ones. Anyone who disagrees you shoot down.
I am not a REA. I am a real practising investor. I am buying my next one right now. I buy in areas people want to live/rent in. Supply and demand does still rule here guys. Despite what the dooms dayers say.
I am in for the long haul. I came on this forum to research for a pest and building inspector as I have an interest in PropertyInvesting in Australia. Why if you dont think property investing is a wise thing to do join up a couple of days before Scrumpy starts this post. Sounds fishy to me thats all.
scrumpy = blogs = ummester??
Hey look I am all for free speech. 29 pages of it though come on. Its idiots like me that respond I guess and poke and prod and get evryone rialled up. SO I have wasted enough time on this. Let me find my Pest and Building inspector so I can get my IP and I can move on to my next IP.
Call me a greedy capitalist but I love this climate. I should be thankful to you guys or is that to you guy?
John S
AimHigher wrote:Ummster: Sorry but I have no idea where you're coming from. I never actually expressed an opinion on Scamps original posts topic. In fact you'll notice I didn't mention a thing about Scamps post in terms of the topic. This is becuase I don't beleive Scamp is either serious or informed. I'm all for seeing/hearing every side to every debate or issue, however I close down completely – as I'm sure many others do – when it's presented in such a silly way.Scamp may well have some valid points but he does himself no favours when he posts in such a recationary way.
My post says nothing AT ALL about the topic so I'm at a loss to understand your post to me and what appears to be a question to me in terms of 'correcitons and downturns' and a supposed expressed opinon…???
Perhaps you have my post mixed up with someone elses?
I was responding to you referring to Scamps as a doom and gloomer. That does say something about the topic, it suggests that for you doom and gloom is a downturn. I think Scamp can be harsh in his responses but doom and gloom is entirely relative.
johnstal wrote:Someone better tell the WA, SA and Qld governments about the boom being over then.I'm sure they know.
johnstal wrote:It seems you guys are the defensive ones. Anyone who disagrees you shoot down.If you say so, but the tone of your first post would lead any reasonable person to assume otherwise.
johnstal wrote:I am not a REA. I am a real practising investor. I am buying my next one right now.Good luck with that. BTW, I didn't really think you were a REA – that was a joke. Must be a generational thing (another joke, just incase you were confused [yes, that was a little sarcastic also]).
johnstal wrote:I buy in areas people want to live/rent in. Supply and demand does still rule here guys. Despite what the dooms dayers say.Demand is affected by available funds. As I noted earlier, doom and gloom is entirely relative.
johnstal wrote:I am in for the long haul. I came on this forum to research for a pest and building inspector as I have an interest in PropertyInvesting in Australia. Why if you dont think property investing is a wise thing to do join up a couple of days before Scrumpy starts this post. Sounds fishy to me thats all.Long haul will always prosper in property (15 years or so) of that I have no doubt. I have been sure of the market here crashing for around 3 years (I think we are postponing the inevitable) and I am using the knowledge of people here to try and work out when the bottom of the trough will be, how long it will last for and how much will it represent.
I didn't realize how in denial so many investors would be. It's like eating all the time and then refusing to believe your belly has gotten bigger. What did they honestly expect was going to happen when they started down the path we are on now?
johnstal wrote:scrumpy = blogs = ummester??Hey look I am all for free speech. 29 pages of it though come on. Its idiots like me that respond I guess and poke and prod and get evryone rialled up. SO I have wasted enough time on this. Let me find my Pest and Building inspector so I can get my IP and I can move on to my next IP.
Call me a greedy capitalist but I love this climate. I should be thankful to you guys or is that to you guy?
John S
I'm sure I am not either of them, I guess what you or they think is irrelevant beyond that.
This discussion will go on heated for the next 6 months and then less heatedly for the next 2 years (I suspect) if the forum allows it. It is too hard in Australia to gauge exactly what property is worth at the moment and that debate will rage for a while, after then the questions will be about when is it going to end. It could go on alot longer than 29 pages.
I love the Winter and my Mrs loves the Summer but all climates change. This capitalistic climate you love is on the way out.
How old are you?
johnstal wrote:what a load of crap. I couldnt be bothered reading the whole post. Read enough though. We are a totally different market than the US and Europe.Heard of the Mining Boom? We arent dependant on the US anymore. When China crashes thats when we are effected. Even if China crashes they will be relying on our resources so we will be still a relatively strong economic market.
ye gods! not a "it's different this time!" post…….now were all screwed.
johnstal wrote:Someone better tell the WA, SA and Qld governments about the boom being over then.It seems you guys are the defensive ones. Anyone who disagrees you shoot down.
I am not a REA. I am a real practising investor. I am buying my next one right now. I buy in areas people want to live/rent in. Supply and demand does still rule here guys. Despite what the dooms dayers say.
I am in for the long haul. I came on this forum to research for a pest and building inspector as I have an interest in PropertyInvesting in Australia. Why if you dont think property investing is a wise thing to do join up a couple of days before Scrumpy starts this post. Sounds fishy to me thats all.
scrumpy = blogs = ummester??
Hey look I am all for free speech. 29 pages of it though come on. Its idiots like me that respond I guess and poke and prod and get evryone rialled up. SO I have wasted enough time on this. Let me find my Pest and Building inspector so I can get my IP and I can move on to my next IP.
Call me a greedy capitalist but I love this climate. I should be thankful to you guys or is that to you guy?
John S
What is really funny was 6 months ago or more when people like myself and ummester spoke of a declining property market we were slammed from pillar to post, I even commented how I was saving all the comments to show all my kiddies just how stupid and irrational people can be when blinded by greed. Well surprise surprise property prices are going down, and we are on the cusp of a real crash. SO now all the bulls come outs saying stuff like 'it doesnt matter, Im in for the long haul' etc. lol whatever. At the end of the day we are right, and you will be nothing but 10-20% broker
Have a great day mate.AimHigher wrote:So I say to you all :Don't poke Scamp!
I know You don't really mean that. Besides, this thread is in the Help Needed !section and if Scamp doesn't need help then who does ?
Wasn't there some ABC reporter on this forum looking for a story not that long ago ? How about a story about a young migrant arriving here from a civilized European country, his grandiose dreams and the culture shock of landing in a banana republic. The daily struggle for survival in a typical aussie backyard, putting up with red-backs and funnel web spiders and the occasional king brown and tiger snakes crawling from under the fibro rented house. Then after a hard day's work renovating a lovely blue asbestos cottage the constant lookout for stingers,jellyfish, blue-ring octopus, sea snakes, sharks and saltwater crocs while trying to cool himself down at the beach in temperatures of 44 degrees plus. Finally when the sun goes down and he goes to bed thinking that he can now finally relax the Encephalitis and Ross River virus carrying mosquitoes come out to play. We could just call it SCAMP, get Michael Caton to host it and it could become more popular then Backyard Blitz and Hot Property put together.harb wrote:AimHigher wrote:So I say to you all :Don't poke Scamp!
I know You don't really mean that. Besides, this thread is in the Help Needed !section and if Scamp doesn't need help then who does ?
Wasn't there some ABC reporter on this forum looking for a story not that long ago ? How about a story about a young migrant arriving here from a civilized European country, his grandiose dreams and the culture shock of landing in a banana republic. The daily struggle for survival in a typical aussie backyard, putting up with red-backs and funnel web spiders and the occasional king brown and tiger snakes crawling from under the fibro rented house. Then after a hard day's work renovating a lovely blue asbestos cottage the constant lookout for stingers,jellyfish, blue-ring octopus, sea snakes, sharks and saltwater crocs while trying to cool himself down at the beach in temperatures of 44 degrees plus. Finally when the sun goes down and he goes to bed thinking that he can now finally relax the Encephalitis and Ross River virus carrying mosquitoes come out to play. We could just call it SCAMP, get Michael Caton to host it and it could become more popular then Backyard Blitz and Hot Property put together.Or we could just ride the fed-ghetto's of Zimbabwe or Queens New york? I that's were you're at in Oz……… You need to move!
harb wrote:AimHigher wrote:So I say to you all :Don't poke Scamp!
I know You don't really mean that. Besides, this thread is in the Help Needed !section and if Scamp doesn't need help then who does ?
Wasn't there some ABC reporter on this forum looking for a story not that long ago ? How about a story about a young migrant arriving here from a civilized European country, his grandiose dreams and the culture shock of landing in a banana republic. The daily struggle for survival in a typical aussie backyard, putting up with red-backs and funnel web spiders and the occasional king brown and tiger snakes crawling from under the fibro rented house. Then after a hard day's work renovating a lovely blue asbestos cottage the constant lookout for stingers,jellyfish, blue-ring octopus, sea snakes, sharks and saltwater crocs while trying to cool himself down at the beach in temperatures of 44 degrees plus. Finally when the sun goes down and he goes to bed thinking that he can now finally relax the Encephalitis and Ross River virus carrying mosquitoes come out to play. We could just call it SCAMP, get Michael Caton to host it and it could become more popular then Backyard Blitz and Hot Property put together.I actually had a chuckle at this one.
Scamp wrote:I actually had a chuckle at this one.The funny part is that once you get out of the CBD most of it is true, we've just got used to it and so will you if you're still here after the first 2-3 years.
Scamp wrote:rates will rise by 0.5 percent this year, and keep going up , and up and up. There's 0% chance of them going down. Oil prices add to the pressure, as inflation is up up up, so interest must go up up up to 13% base rates minimum, which means 18% variable rates.These are interesting times, especially when you think a lot of property investors have 20 (!!) properties or more, all NEGATIVELY geared of barely above 0 at their fixed low rates that will jump to 10% in september.
If those all come on the market, it's carnage like noone has seen before. 80% house price crashes , and houses abandoned because they are too expensive to upkeep.So far that prediction of a 0.5% rise doesn't look good, lets see how September pans out for you.
I've been trawling thru some of the blogs on this site and must confess to be a little disappointed by the lack of insight coming from most contributors. The above comments by Scamp seem to be totally incorrect. The RBA is about to bring down the money rate. Some of the majors are already cutting their fixed rates. "0% chance of a cut" ??? Hmmm….time for me to move on to the next ignorant, ego driven blogger
Yossarian wrote:ErikH wrote:– and I don't know where you do your research, but your comments on immigration are way off the mark. NETT migration has increased from around 60,000 on average during the 70s to over 200,000 on average between 2003-2007 and there has been a very steady trend in that increase. To paraphrase yourself… "it's simple, just do the math, more people in, less people out and the population grows"
Can someone assist me in tracking down the source of this "net 200,000" number. The ABS shows net migration averaging 120K between 2000 & 2006, peaking at 135K
There *upper range* for forecasting in the 2008 yearbook is in the 140K range
So where is 200K coming from?
Bueller?
Anyone?Given the number of times it is mentioned, surely someone must have a source?
Have a great day mate.
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