All Topics / Help Needed! / Best advice : Don’t invest into property : The australian market is CRASHING.

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  • Profile photo of ummesterummester
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    yarpos wrote:
    they are just a reflection of the general greed levels

    I can't disagree with that – which is why I am sure that socially, even more than financially, the property market in Australia has to correct in the order of 30%. Greed is killing this country and oddly I have never cared as much about it (never was very patriotic) until I could see it dying.

    Profile photo of ScampScamp
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    debt = future money.

    This is the first time in history that current generation is stealing money from the next generation.

    Can you live with that ?

    Profile photo of ummesterummester
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    Scamp wrote:
    debt = future money.

    This is the first time in history that current generation is stealing money from the next generation.

    Can you live with that ?

    You mean Gen X stealing from Gen Y or Boomers stealing from X & Y?

    In Australia, I only see the Boomers (and some of the very old X's) doing the investing. Sure, there are some younger X's and Y's without kids that have jumped in as investors in the last couple of years but surely they are going to be burnt badly as they all seem well over leveraged. The Boomers are the only ones who had ownership behind them to make safe investments.

    And no, ultimately I don't feel like I can live with the old farts stealing from future generations (they never had any hard times, how soon they forgot the lessons taught to them by thier parents, eh?) but what can I do about it? it's not like I can get Australia to adopt Logan's Run type policy is it?

    The public sector wants them out (over 55s that is) but they won't leave because of thier 'investment plans'. Won't even take good VRs, because they haven't quite secured that 10th property yet. Greedy old buggars.

    Sorry, massive rant there, but as you can probably tell, i am aware where most of the greed is generated. But what is the point? Why would the banks open investments with such limited futures (in lifespan that is). Most Boomers will be either dead or dribbling through dentures in nursing homes within 20 years so what does thier debt accomplish?

    They'll hand property onto kids that don't respect them or it because they were never there, or are on thier 4th marriage and can't remember which one's are theirs. They will be cruely treated in thier dotage by nurses and cops that they have forced to live like shit on the outer fringes. In the end, what will they gain, for anyone?

    What confuses me most about you Scamp is why all the effort to warn people? When markets peak like they are now, it is usually only the mid level investors who are stupid enough to keep buying. The FHBs have been squeezed out and the new investors are stretched to their limit. That only leaves the Boomers competing with each other in a dying market, for rents they will never be able to achieve. Why warn them? Why not let them compete each other into bankruptcy and then come in and pick up what you want when the dust has settled?

    Profile photo of ScampScamp
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    because in the end, I will pay for those people's mistakes when I live in Australia from next year on.
    Taxes will go up , pensions will go down, pension age will go up from 65 ( or whatever it is in Australia ) to 70, more crime, more homeless, more pressure on 'efficiency' ( Lean / Toyota-style Japanese-style company management ), burglar alarms and fences just to keep the lowlifes away from me and my girlfriend.
    Eventually, the answer is either much more taxes, or much higher crime. Neither of them benefits me.
    And it will all the be result of the extremely high houseprices.
    I already found a nice place where I would like to settle, I can pay cash for a house over there, I'm not too worried.
    But this whole recession is going to be more dear to many others than me. Unemployment will rise, that's not good for me either is it. Competition will get more fierce etc..

    All because of these 'marvellously high houseprices'. Bah… 

    Profile photo of ummesterummester
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    Unfortunately, because of the poulation bulge that exists around the Boomers 'Taxes will go up , pensions will go down, pension age will go up from 65 ( or whatever it is in Australia ) to 70' regardless of property prices. There are heaps of them aged 50-65 over here at the moment, way too many and no-one can do anything about it…

    Of course, a crash in the property market will help the Gen X & Y workers all become home owners but it won't solve the 'aged population' thing. Check it out:

    http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/Latestproducts/3235.0Main%20Features32006?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=3235.0&issue=2006&num=&view=

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    The aged population is solved by immigration. Why do you think Australia is letting all these people in ?

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    Scamp wrote:
    Taxes will go up , pensions will go down, pension age will go up from 65 ( or whatever it is in Australia ) to 70, more crime, more homeless, more pressure on 'efficiency' ( Lean / Toyota-style Japanese-style company management ), burglar alarms and fences just to keep the lowlifes away from me and my girlfriend.

    Actually both taxes and pensions are going up Scamp. And I wouldn't bother with burglar alarms, nobody takes any notice of them in Australia. In fact you'll probably end up assaulted by your own neighbors if your alarm wakes them up in the middle of the night too many times.

    Tax review to consider boost for pensioners

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/tax-review-to-consider-boost-for-pensioners-20080807-3rsv.html

    Quote:
    Eventually, the answer is either much more taxes, or much higher crime. Neither of them benefits me.
    And it will all the be result of the extremely high houseprices.

    High house prices has little to do with crime rates, most people would be too tired after working long hours to go out and commit crimes. The biggest factor in the increase in crime rate is boredom. Look at all the larger cities in NSW where house prices are much lower the Sydney but crime rate much higher. Soaring crime rates and binge drinking caused by ….. Gen Y of course. Not FHBs worried of losing their home, not struggling investors but lazy no good schoolies getting wasted and smashing everything in site.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/03/11/2185836.htm

    http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2007/s2185412.htm

    Quote:
    I already found a nice place where I would like to settle, I can pay cash for a house over there, I'm not too worried.
    But this whole recession is going to be more dear to many others than me. Unemployment will rise, that's not good for me either is it.

    Any small coastal town with no high schools and mostly older population is a nice place to live. What do you care about unemployment ?If you can pay cash for your place then the dole money will cover daily expenses and you can spend your days at the beach. For extra cash you can always go fruit picking with the backpackers a couple of months a year .

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    harb wrote:
    What do you care about unemployment ?If you can pay cash for your place then the dole money will cover daily expenses and you can spend your days at the beach. For extra cash you can always go fruit picking with the backpackers a couple of months a year .

    I can't get dole until I spent 2 years in Australia at least :P

    Profile photo of L.A AussieL.A Aussie
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    Scamp, if Aus is so bad (as you keep describing to us) then why are you coming out here?

    Why don't you simply stay where you are in your wonderful country – whatever it is.

    It can't be too bad if you've done so well that you can come pout here and pay cash for one of our exhorbitantly priced houses.

    Profile photo of devo76devo76
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    I still cant get my head around why he is even on this forum.Sharing info on the downside to investing is fine but to take it to the level he has is crazy. He is on the wrong forum.Like i have said before. If i dislike something i sure as hell dont spend my quality time deeply involved with it like is the case here. It makes no sense. Unless of coarse you have a vested interest in turning it around to line up more closely with your own views. I think that is exactely what we are seeing here

    Profile photo of Peak OilPeak Oil
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    ummester wrote:
    yarpos wrote:
    they are just a reflection of the general greed levels

    I can't disagree with that – which is why I am sure that socially, even more than financially, the property market in Australia has to correct in the order of 30%. Greed is killing this country and oddly I have never cared as much about it (never was very patriotic) until I could see it dying.

    Now that's passion! The men and women who defended this great country of ours during the world wars would be turning in their graves if they could see what we have created for our children, dog eat dog, foot on head bunch of who gives a fuck about anyone but me people.

    Its every Aussies given right to have a roof over their heads, not some profiteering cockroach's determining the market, banks, property developers and share holders. Its all about the profit right? Fucking scum.

    Profile photo of ummesterummester
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    ormeau wrote:
    Now that's passion! The men and women who defended this great country of ours during the world wars would be turning in their graves if they could see what we have created for our children, dog eat dog, foot on head bunch of who gives a fuck about anyone but me people.

    Its every Aussies given right to have a roof over their heads, not some profiteering cockroach's determining the market, banks, property developers and share holders. Its all about the profit right? Fucking scum.

    It's the children of those that died in the great wars and survived the recession that are the biggest profiters.

    Oh Devo, though there is some point in what you are saying about the forum being for investment  advice, residential property investors do have (like it or not) a responsibility to the society from which they invest.

    Profile photo of ummesterummester
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    Scamp wrote:
    The aged population is solved by immigration. Why do you think Australia is letting all these people in ?

    Unless the recession is sever enough and the country can't afford immigration.

    I still don't understand why the banks would create so much debt with people who have an average of 15 years life left?

    Just say property does go down in the order of 30% and overleveraged Boomers can't pay the bank back before they die, what are the banks going to do?

    Profile photo of ScampScamp
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    ummester wrote:
    Scamp wrote:
    The aged population is solved by immigration. Why do you think Australia is letting all these people in ?

    Unless the recession is sever enough and the country can't afford immigration.

    I still don't understand why the banks would create so much debt with people who have an average of 15 years life left?

    Just say property does go down in the order of 30% and overleveraged Boomers can't pay the bank back before they die, what are the banks going to do?

    Have you even kept up with USA news ? That is EXACTLY what is happening in the USA. And it's their demise. Their doom… their financial system is collapsing as we speak.

    Profile photo of ubique17ubique17
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    Scamp wrote:
    because in the end, I will pay for those people's mistakes when I live in Australia from next year on.

    Scamp, have you ever considered that IMMI may not let you settle in Australia? After all, it appears from your multitude of postings that the world is ending, and we certainly won't need IT boffins (or dooms-dayers with sandwich boards preaching that the end is nigh on the main street) when we are sustaining ourselves on bread and water. (Although, be sure to let us know when you do move here, I'm sure it'll make for a fantastic episode of Border Patrol when you challenge the customs officer's view on your luggage)
    I would really like to see someone go toe to toe with Scamp, surely there must be someone who has a brighter view going forward, someone who has actually walked down an Australian street looking at property potential? Downturn – yes, disaster – no.
    Does make me wonder if this a wondrous scheme to panic as many investors, and drive down prices before Scamp starts investing…

    Profile photo of yarposyarpos
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    why would anyone waste the time going toe to toe with him?  look at the content ….random -ve stuff , presented as fact and usually not sourced,  causes /effects/economies/countries all mixed up in any way that supports a single line of argument.   Just like the circus , one trick ponies get boring.

    Profile photo of ummesterummester
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    Scamp wrote:
    ummester wrote:
    I still don't understand why the banks would create so much debt with people who have an average of 15 years life left?

    Just say property does go down in the order of 30% and overleveraged Boomers can't pay the bank back before they die, what are the banks going to do?

    Have you even kept up with USA news ? That is EXACTLY what is happening in the USA. And it's their demise. Their doom… their financial system is collapsing as we speak.

    The difference is that you are allowed to walk away from your loans in the USA, you are only allowed to walk away in Australia once you are legally declared bankrupt. If too many people are being declared bankrupt here, i am sure the govt. will move the goalposts, so that the debt will stand. I guess, in the long run, as in the US, the banks will end up with the debt. If this happens, it makes me believe that high interest rates will be here for a while yet. Layman's view, I know, but I can't see any other choice for the banks.

    Profile photo of ErikHErikH
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    ummester wrote:

    ErikH, RP data is a company that profits exclusively from the property market, which slant do you think they prefer to give? There is no way the information they provide is unbiased – they need a strong market to remain operational.

    Consider this

    http://www.jenman.com.au/news_article.php?id=226

    I never realized, before skulking around here, how much of an industry putting spin on the property market has become. Oddly, it seems to be driven by the banks. This kind of scares me, don't we have enough debt with the banks as it is? I mean, how much debt can they safely create?

    Unmester, thanks I am aware of that, but the statistics come from the ABS and are pretty robust (I checked the ABS website and got the same dataset). I actually made some charts of population growth by state and that shows some interesting trends… I do agree with you that median prices as offered by the various companies are unreliable at best – I don't like the concept of a median price anyway unless it is ona limited popultaion of properties. And indeed companies by RPData, Residex etc. make their money in the property business, so as you say, you have to watch out for the spin – whether it be from the bulls or the bears!

    I don't think you can argue about the population growth etc. and what that does to the market fundamentals, but as I highligted their article conveniently forgot to mention affordability as a a major issue …

    And scamp:
    – of course you include births, baby's don't buy houses, but they do make the population grow and that drives long term trends.
    – and deaths don't make houses "dissapear", the left behind family/partner etc. also need to live somewhere
    – and I don't know where you do your research, but your comments on immigration are way off the mark. NETT migration has increased from around 60,000 on average during the 70s to over 200,000 on average between 2003-2007 and there has been a very steady trend in that increase. To paraphrase yourself… "it's simple, just do the math, more people in, less people out and the population grows"

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    Scamp wrote:
    I can't get dole until I spent 2 years in Australia at least :P

    Bugger, then make that 6 months fruit picking for someone who includes accommodation.

    Profile photo of ummesterummester
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    ErikH wrote:
    I don't think you can argue about the population growth etc. and what that does to the market fundamentals, but as I highligted their article conveniently forgot to mention affordability as a a major issue …

    The reason more people are coming in is because we have alot of people preparing for retirement. I don't think that the workers left here and the immigrants that arrive are going to be able to pay for the retirement that those getting ready envisage for themselves.

    Besides, and this is not spin, if a recession kicks in immigration will decrease.

    Sins of the fathers….

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