- Scamp wrote:We have had 1 rate rise already, and it's still 4 months till Xmas. Plenty of time for another rate rise.
Be happy if you don't see the other rate rise with current inflation levels.What other one ? You were talking about 2 more only recently , did you forget "love to see 15% next year" and all that…how long ago was that ?
Quote:Apparently things are going worse than I though.Hahaha, reminds me of one of your previous optimistic posts. Sorry Scamp but its a classic :
Scamp wrote:Remember that when it takes 1 year to sell your house, you are now selling for the future price ( 1 year from now ). In other words, before you realize the houseprices have dropped, it's too late and you need to drop your asking price not by what everyone else is doing ( if you want to sell ) but at what everyone's selling -20%.So , prepare for 50% price drops : The UK housing market is a lot healthier than Australia's housing market, so UK crash can only be shallower.
It's just that in the UK, people can't afford to work 3 jobs like in Australia.
And soon, when sickness and stress catch up with Aussies working 100 hours per week just to pay their mortgage interest, they will ask themselves "was it all worth it ?" and then commit suicide or get into crime, or drink themselves to death, or end up in the gutter, or maybe all of the above.http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?p=421321#post421321
And this is the place you want to move to ?
Scamp wrote:rates will rise by 0.5 percent this year, and keep going up , and up and up. There's 0% chance of them going down. Oil prices add to the pressure, as inflation is up up up, so interest must go up up up to 13% base rates minimum, which means 18% variable rates.These are interesting times, especially when you think a lot of property investors have 20 (!!) properties or more, all NEGATIVELY geared of barely above 0 at their fixed low rates that will jump to 10% in september.
If those all come on the market, it's carnage like noone has seen before. 80% house price crashes , and houses abandoned because they are too expensive to upkeep.So far that prediction of a 0.5% rise doesn't look good, lets see how September pans out for you.
It has been puzzling me as to why Scamp, who currently lives in the Netherlands but is planning to immigrate to Australia soon, has been so passionate …… no, …. correction…. obsessive …. about persuading us that the market is doomed and about to crash US style. This message has been drummed into forum members relentlessly even in threads when the question under discussion was specific and nothing to do with this topic.
And not only on this forum.
Then I came across a post from harb which may explain everything.
https://www.propertyinvesting.com/forums/property-investing/help-needed/4325502
You mean like your genius hoax ?
Scamp wrote:
My genius plan was to advertise houses for 30% under the price of an auctioned house, with public viewings the same date as the auction, and the same times too, just to make sure I'm the only one at the auction
Nothing a RE can come up with that I can't counter.
http://forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/index.php?showtopic=35049
Is this another genius plan of yours to singlehandedly panic investors and cause a property crash so that you will get more bang for your euros when you get here?
Come on. Fess up scamp.
Elkaive just been reading page one of this thread and i watched the 60 minutes piece House of Cards and thought I'd share a bit of what I have read and interpreted about the sub prime crisis. There are obviously multiple factors at play, but this is as i understand it.
Predatory Lending, an illegal practice in the states, was used to effectively con people into accepting loans they could not afford. The good percentage of those taking these subprime loans were poor; poor credit history, poor financial situation, poor financial education.
all these dodgy loans were then packaged up and sold as 'gold' investments that we now know have turned to mud. companies worldwide that invested in them, have lost big.
In itself this is bad enough, for greedy financial institutions to suck the life out of people not equipped to understand their position. Sure, they should have known better, but they didnt. They got loans at IR of 1% for a few years not realising that when this term expired they would move onto considerably greater rates (in the 60mins vid it was 14%)
But, here comes the interesting bit: some people out there recognised the problem. Those people happened to be Attorney Generals. Led by NY governor Eliot Spitzer, the 50 state AG's took action against the companies handing out the loans, reaching settlements and then introducing laws to stop it happening again.
The Bush administration didnt want this to happen. they went against the AG's, instead siding with the finance sector and invoking its own regulatory body to stop the AG's individual states from protecting their citizens through these new laws. Spitzer, already an anti corruption crusader intensely dislkied by Wall St (nicknamed 'the sheriff of wall st) launched a NY AG investigation but was sued by the Bush govt on the grounds that curbing pred lending stopped consumers access to credit.
This of course made Spitzer Public Enemy No 1 in the eyes of the Bush admin. After all, CountryWide, one of the biggest sub prime lenders, is also one of the main contributors to the Bush Republican Party, as are many of the others.
On Valentines Eve 2008 Spitzer penned an article in the Washington Post detailing the misdeeds of the financial companies and the Govt http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/13/AR2008021302783.html .
Foolishly, while in Washington writing the article, Spitzer ordered a prostitute to his room, all unknowingly while being wiretapped by the FBI. His article was published however not long after whispers emerged of a high profile politician being busted in a prostitution ring scandal. Three weeks after the article was published, Spitzer was forced to resign and it came to light that he had two previous liasons with hookers. After his challenge to the Administration article though he needed to be silenced and the resulting media circus failed to focus on his ongoing investigations but on the call girl herself.On the day he resigned the Govt announced its multi billion bailout of BearSterns and other lenders….
None of this starngely has made the major outlets worldwide, possibly because most of those corporate controlled conglomerations are also major backers of the Bush Admin and benefit from their policies. Greg Palast at gregpalast.com did though if anyone is interested in further reading.
So I figure thats where the mess we are heading into is partially coming from.
Mister wrote:
Well I will ad that investor lerks and perks that Howard created are also obviously taking up more houses than usual adding the amount of property investing guru influx and TV shows .
So call me slowYes you are. Try LURKS
Mister wrote:
they pay $1.50 a gall in Burma but in the lucky country we pay 6-$7 for that same gallon . My winge is -. What the !!!!!Try WHINGE
Mister wrote:
Coles reckons it will cost the 20,000,000 to incorperateTry INCORPORATE
Mister wrote:Actually Bloggs
Try BLOGS
Mister wrote:
I'm not very bright youknow ! .Clearly lol, try YOU KNOW
Mister wrote:
I can spell wrog !Wow you really caught me out there genius!!! Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Little hint, if you are going to call someone out on their speelling (evun if it is obveously a simpil keystroc erra) at leest make sur you spell gooda stuff ureself einstien….
But I wouldnt expect anything less from a blind labour supporter now would I…
Sure glad Krud wasted all those million's on fuel watch and the grocery price website-man that is saving us a fortune lol
Ok you are slow. Hey genius lerks is spelt lurks,
ummester wrote:Mister wrote:I can guarantee you one thing – I can spell wrog !I am not a nasty person – honestly…. but that is frakin' hilarious!!!
Wow you must be easily ammused? In that case what I have just posted will have you wetting your pants…..
Form an orderly line here for your rent-free cardboard box
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24122154-23375,00.html
THE WRY SIDE: Jonathan Porter | August 04, 2008
HAVE you heard of jingle mail? It's the practice in the US of sending your bank manager the keys to your house when you can no longer pay your subprime mortgage.
Instead of hanging on despite crippling mortgage payments, you find an envelope (any old one will do), put your house keys in it and mail them to the bank.
Then you pack up the missus, the kids and the pets and begin your new life in a cardboard box under a highway overpass.
Before the move, as you are packing, the banker arrives, lifts your flaxen-haired daughters' chins and says: "No need to take the little ladies."
Your bad home loan — and of course, your daughters — are now the bank's problem.
In housing-poor Australia, flogging the house wouldn't be a problem for the bank, not with new immigrants driving up our housing prices.
But in the US, with its huge population and huger housing stock, selling the millions of houses that have suddenly come on the market is a problem. And so is the reason for all those defaulters: peak oil.
That's the idea that world oil production peaked in either 2005, or this week or next week, and we will soon be reduced to savagery. Which brings me to T. Boone Pickens.
Pickens, a Republican oilman, says the US has finally found a problem it can't drill its way out of. Last year, Pickens predicted oil would surge to $US100 a barrel.
Naturally, no one believed him at the time, instead calling for him to be captured by men in white coats armed with butterfly nets and placed in a rubber room (Pickens, not the men in the white coats).
Now $US100 oil is a fragrant memory redolent of happier times, but still, sadly, no one is paying attention to Pickens. "He was right, but for the wrong reasons," grumble the experts.
The US imports about 70 per cent of its oil at a cost of $700 billion a year, four times the annual cost of the Iraq war.
"If we create a new renewable energy network, we can break our addiction to foreign oil," he says.
Pickens says over the next 10 years $US10trillion will be handed over to foreigners. This will be the biggest transfer of wealth in the history if the planet, he says.
Pickens's solution is to build wind farms in all the prairie states from Texas to North Dakota. These are among the windiest places on earth, Pickens says, and will free up the natural gas the US now uses to generate power. The gas will then be used to power the nation's car and truck fleet, reducing the nation's dependency on foreign oil.
It's a stop gap that will give America the breathing space it needs to stop the Saudis repossessing (possessing?) the US.
And it's not just Saudi Arabia. My good friend Frank Fukuyama seems to agree with Pickens. Talking about foreigners' cash reserves of US currency, Frank says China has about $1.5 trillion of US cash reserves, Russia half a trillion, South Korea about one-quarter. Now while this doesn't necessarily translate into military or other kinds of power, "a few hundred billion dollars here, a few trillion dollars there, and pretty soon you're talking about real money".
So what will happen if the US doesn't adopt the Pickens plan?
I can see a time when it won't have any more money to give to Saudi Arabia and it simply opts to send the Saudis the keys to the country, all because Americans are addicted to burning leftovers from carboniferous times.
The former population of the US will then form an orderly line to head for a large cardboard box underneath an overpass among the sucked-dry sand dunes of the Middle East.
As the Americans line up to leave the US, the Saudis will say: "There's no need to take the little ladies with you." Then they will pause and say: "Better leave the little boys and the pets as well."
What does all this mean for Australia? We who are still paying our mortgages and whose houses are still worth something. I would say it's time to buy some canned goods.
But maybe it's time we saved America's bacon, like they saved the French in World War II, and we saved them in World War I, World War II, Korea, Malaya, Vietnam, East Timor, Iraq and Afghanistan.
We must all get behind Pickens's plan, get off the oil teat, send the US instead of China our natural gas and for God's sake look after their women for them.
blogs wrote:ummester wrote:Mister wrote:I can guarantee you one thing – I can spell wrog !I am not a nasty person – honestly…. but that is frakin' hilarious!!!
Wow you must be easily ammused? In that case what I have just posted will have you wetting your pants…..
Oh Bloged – get some rest man get some rest .
Cheers
Mister wrote:Oh Bloged – get some rest man get some rest .
Cheers
lol is that all you got? I will repond later when I have more time and energy as to why your original post was so wrong.
And i thought I was the trouble maker…………………….
blogs wrote:ummester wrote:Mister wrote:I can guarantee you one thing – I can spell wrog !I am not a nasty person – honestly…. but that is frakin' hilarious!!!
Wow you must be easily ammused? In that case what I have just posted will have you wetting your pants…..
Nah, timing was off… too late to be funny:)
Here are some interesting statistics, issued by RP Data and based on ABS statistics:
First, Australian population change is bigger than ever before (incl. going all the way back to 1789) due to both peaks in net immigration and births:
Add to that that the size of the average household is projected to decline from 2.6 in 2006 to 2.3-2.2 in 2006 and the pressure increases.Second, the number of new houses/units coming on to the market has been reducing (the graph doesn't make it very clear, but I believe this is completions per quarter not year!):
http://www.vision6.com.au/download/files/09640/561899/Dwelling+completions+-+ORIG.gif
So according to RP Data the supply-demand balance (based on a study by the Commonwealth Treasury) is as follows:
http://www.vision6.com.au/download/files/14347/562072/Underlying+demand+graph+-+ORIG.gif
And so they conclude that all the fundmentals are in place for future growth which they predict is likely to start again by end 2009… what is not covered in their article is the issue of affordability nor are the 900,000 empty dwellings mentioned.
I think the changing demographics can apart from driving prices up, maybe also push for a faster change in the type/size of properties that people buy to help reduce prices e.g. more high density. As for the empty dwellings my gut feeling says there is something fundmentally wrong with those numbers and that we will not see most of those properties (re)appear on the market all of a sudden, but I haven't looked into the data so this is more of a hunch…
ok, come on, scamp, tell me this is all rubbish and house prices will crash and Australia is set up for utter demise…
lol really, how funny, we currently have highest amount of properties for sale since 2004, which using fancy pants graphs would indicate to me that population growth and houses for sale have a inverse relationship
. People arnt going to buy house if they cant afford them, simple as that. Also need to take into consideration the imigrants themselves-typically no money AND quite common to squeze a heap of them into one house etc….I keep it simple, if a house is to expensive it aint gunna sell no matter how many imigrants we have. Just had a R.A call me about a townhouse she was trying to flog off for between $570-$600k and has since told be the vendor is now open to offers in the low 5's, the best offer they have recieved so far is $500k lol dreamers….
Rents will play catch up as they are, then prices will rise unless we hit an oil fuelled recession.
Property goes down ,property goes up, Property goes down again. Whatever . Long term people. Long term
ErikH wrote:Here are some interesting statistics, issued by RP Data and based on ABS statistics:First, Australian population change is bigger than ever before (incl. going all the way back to 1789) due to both peaks in net immigration and births:
Add to that that the size of the average household is projected to decline from 2.6 in 2006 to 2.3-2.2 in 2006 and the pressure increases.Second, the number of new houses/units coming on to the market has been reducing (the graph doesn't make it very clear, but I believe this is completions per quarter not year!):
http://www.vision6.com.au/download/files/09640/561899/Dwelling+completions+-+ORIG.gif
So according to RP Data the supply-demand balance (based on a study by the Commonwealth Treasury) is as follows:
http://www.vision6.com.au/download/files/14347/562072/Underlying+demand+graph+-+ORIG.gif
And so they conclude that all the fundmentals are in place for future growth which they predict is likely to start again by end 2009… what is not covered in their article is the issue of affordability nor are the 900,000 empty dwellings mentioned.
I think the changing demographics can apart from driving prices up, maybe also push for a faster change in the type/size of properties that people buy to help reduce prices e.g. more high density. As for the empty dwellings my gut feeling says there is something fundmentally wrong with those numbers and that we will not see most of those properties (re)appear on the market all of a sudden, but I haven't looked into the data so this is more of a hunch…
ok, come on, scamp, tell me this is all rubbish and house prices will crash and Australia is set up for utter demise…
Births are real nice. Have you ever seen a 1 year old baby buy a property ? No.. ? Ok , then we will leave the births out won't we ? Deaths on the other hand… that leaves 1 house AT LEAST ( usually 2 or 3 ) empty for sale / rent.
Immigration is made up of temporary visa's. Those visa's expire, people go back. Plenty of Visa's resetting every year, those people leave the country. Then there's the people emigrating away from Australia. Only very few permanent visa's are given out this year, the rest is all temporary, student visa, etc etc.
no you dont leave births out scamp, your clearly not a parent yet, just think it through for more than 5 seconds before you feel the need to make condescending remarks. New arrivals in the family often trigger requirements to renovate or move, especially if you are a non mcmansion start out small couple. This is a contributor to the market for housing
Don't leave wars out either, they have a way of reducing population in the flick of a switch. But viruses are the big leveler. At the end of the day yesterday is history, tomorrow is mystery and that's why they say the present is a gift.
Just do what makes you happy guys, there ain't no right or wrong to whatever one chooses to do as long as we don't hurt each other. With the way we are trashing this planet guys, it ain't gunna make a pinch of difference what anyone decides to do with their brass here.
ErikH, RP data is a company that profits exclusively from the property market, which slant do you think they prefer to give? There is no way the information they provide is unbiased – they need a strong market to remain operational.
Consider this
http://www.jenman.com.au/news_article.php?id=226
I never realized, before skulking around here, how much of an industry putting spin on the property market has become. Oddly, it seems to be driven by the banks. This kind of scares me, don't we have enough debt with the banks as it is? I mean, how much debt can they safely create?
" I mean, how much debt can they safely create?"
unmester, recent times would lead us to say that whatever the number is , its a damn sight less than what they have already done…sadly. But to be fair to them (did I say that?)….they are just a reflection of the general greed levels
. People arnt going to buy house if they cant afford them, simple as that. Also need to take into consideration the imigrants themselves-typically no money AND quite common to squeze a heap of them into one house etc….
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