- crashy wrote:Will Australia in 100 yrs be like Saudi Arabia is now?
You mean, controlled by the USA ? In 100 years there won't be a USA anymore. But, there's clear signs that China will control Australia. They are spending all their USA worthless dollars on Australian assets now. I can see the Chinese reign over Australia's resources some day.
You know all of this Doom and Gloom and future political posturing is nice (I subscribe to some of it myself (yes, I have seen Loose Change, The Power of Nightmares and Zietgiest)) but this is a forum for Australian property prices and they are going down. They have too, for all of our wellbeings.
The oil may dry up (probably will), America (as I see it) is already beyond help and China is undoubtedly poised to be the next superpower. What can we do about any of this? And no, I am not totally apathetic – I care, but am realist enough to know it is all beyond any of our control in this little country at the bottom of the world.
What we should put our minds to is reasonably evaluating how much by and when the bottom of this property crash will come.
devo76 wrote:I think someone was not loved enough as a child. Or dropped on there head at a early age.If you believe that vomit why on earth are on this web site. Go hug a tree. Kiss a fish, bid farewell to loved ones. Seems to me you are wasting your last precious moments on this earth.Just some thoughts.
As each superpower died in the past a new one was born right?. Australias turn at the top people YEAH YEAH.We have our own resources that the world want and need.Large areas of stable land,large gas deposites etc etc. We are looking quite goodAnother thought.
From the power of the sun. Fire was discovered
From fire we found use of metals.
From this we harneseed the power of oil.
So it appears to me that our next power source will be found using all three. Seems logical. Why would this process suddenly change.Chill out dude. Have a beer. relaxe,breath and live your life dont fear it.
Perhaps I may have been dropped, but not drop kicked like you, your reply to a post shows your true grit. Grow up ankle.
the bottom is hard to predict, but the start of it is quite easy.
All the fundamentals have been laid around Australia. Now, all is needed is a lighter to light up the fuel.
That is coming in September 2009. Yep.. only 1 month left
Mind you, it might take a while to light this incredible pile of crap. It could take 6 months before it's completely on fire. So you can safely say the start is September 2008 ( although January 2008 could also be named for putting down the basics in place ) but the real panic will occur later, when unemployment rises, and people start defaulting on their mortgages AND RENTS en masse. Then the fire will be lit. The bottom could be anywhere between 3 years from now, or 20 years from now, depending on how much the government will mess with the whole thing. If the government does things like USA, then Australia is in for a 10 year long depression at least. At that point, the only thing that could potentially extinguish the fire is a massive world war.
ErikH wrote:Ormeau – I'm with crashy, your post is out of place and actually pretty low on facts and sound reasoning. One of the biggest empires of all times, the Roman Empire, did not fall apart due to depletion of local resources, but their decline was much more related to a decline in morals and increasing greed and corruption. I found "Empire of Debt" an interesting read in that it made the prediction a few years ago that the US was an Empire like the Roman Empire but that it's fiscal model was fundamentally flawed (Empire of Debt) and hence would self destruct and that it would al start with a collapse in housing. The authors also explored the similarities between the Roman Empire and the US in terms of the decline of morals. Interesting even though the book was 2-3 times as long as it needed to be…
You stick with Warrens verbs sheeple. Good luck. And when the shit hits the fan and your stocking up on cockroach's for fodder why dont you give him a bell? He may just hand you a bag of flour……………
bah I can't edit my post. September 2008 ofcourse…
crashy wrote:irrelevant, condescending, conceited, pessimism without a clue.
"I went to Uni and all I got with this stupid t-shirt"
If you want to impress people with big words at least spell them right and use them in their correct context.
reminds me of the bar scene in GOOD WILL HUNTING.
but you probably just copied & pasted the whole thing right?
And your perspective means??????? Sweet F.A
So do you still wear your STUPID T-Shirt?……Of course you do
Lucky I have no need to impress. And lack the intelligence as you to use spell check courtesy of Bill G
I bet the only bar scene you know is the one implanted in your mouth.
Gobble gobble gobble.
Turkey
Scamp wrote:The bottom could be anywhere between 3 years from now, or 20 years from now, depending on how much the government will mess with the whole thing. If the government does things like USA, then Australia is in for a 10 year long depression at least. At that point, the only thing that could potentially extinguish the fire is a massive world war.If you truly believe that why bother migrating to AU , wouldn't you be better off staying at home with mum & dad ?
harb wrote:Scamp wrote:The bottom could be anywhere between 3 years from now, or 20 years from now, depending on how much the government will mess with the whole thing. If the government does things like USA, then Australia is in for a 10 year long depression at least. At that point, the only thing that could potentially extinguish the fire is a massive world war.If you truly believe that why bother migrating to AU , wouldn't you be better off staying at home with mum & dad ?
Ofcourse not. Australia is a real nice country. Recessions will be everywhere, also in Europe, but they affect mostly people with debts, which we don't have and don't plan to have. Surely, we will lose some cash, who cares, we will build it up again after the recession. The whole point for us to move to Australia is to enjoy the nice weather, the beaches and the relaxed attitude of people.
ormeau wrote:devo76 wrote:I think someone was not loved enough as a child. Or dropped on there head at a early age.If you believe that vomit why on earth are on this web site. Go hug a tree. Kiss a fish, bid farewell to loved ones. Seems to me you are wasting your last precious moments on this earth.Just some thoughts.
As each superpower died in the past a new one was born right?. Australias turn at the top people YEAH YEAH.We have our own resources that the world want and need.Large areas of stable land,large gas deposites etc etc. We are looking quite goodAnother thought.
From the power of the sun. Fire was discovered
From fire we found use of metals.
From this we harneseed the power of oil.
So it appears to me that our next power source will be found using all three. Seems logical. Why would this process suddenly change.Chill out dude. Have a beer. relaxe,breath and live your life dont fear it.
Perhaps I may have been dropped, but not drop kicked like you, your reply to a post shows your true grit. Grow up ankle.
Wow hitting a nerve hey. You clearly have no interest to help or educate on here. You just want to scare and pannick people. Your true colours are now showing. Find another forum please.
Scamp wrote:bah I can't edit my post. September 2008 ofcourse…What's going to happen in September?
Scamp wrote:the bottom is hard to predict, but the start of it is quite easy.
All the fundamentals have been laid around Australia. Now, all is needed is a lighter to light up the fuel.
That is coming in September 2009. Yep.. only 1 month leftMind you, it might take a while to light this incredible pile of crap. It could take 6 months before it's completely on fire. So you can safely say the start is September 2008 ( although January 2008 could also be named for putting down the basics in place ) but the real panic will occur later, when unemployment rises, and people start defaulting on their mortgages AND RENTS en masse. Then the fire will be lit. The bottom could be anywhere between 3 years from now, or 20 years from now, depending on how much the government will mess with the whole thing. If the government does things like USA, then Australia is in for a 10 year long depression at least. At that point, the only thing that could potentially extinguish the fire is a massive world war.
Come on Scamp; even the most hopeless "end of the world" predictors can put a more accurate date on things than this. And they're always wrong, but I guess one of them will be right eventually.
Saying the bottom could be 3 to 20 years is like saying it's going to rain this year sometime.
Statements like that just make people not listen to you even more than we already don't.
Yeah, you may be right, but I can make money from property in a down market as well, so I'm not concerned by a "crash".
It's actually a good thing for us shoppers – bargains everywhere.
Well, if it comes to war I am glad that I am too old to be drafted and my boys are too young. I just hope it is over by the time my boys are teenagers. I will not fight for other idiots political and economic mistakes and I hope my offspring never have to.
I actually think the powers that be will have a hard time getting the Western World to go to war now. We work in such an equal, politically correct working environment that the obvious questions will be 'why not send the women or minorities to die first?'
But I digress, I guess if house prices are 30% less in 2 years that will be good enough for me and that is all that matters. If they go down beyond that, I will be in for the long haul and am sure they will rise again. All I know is that I am on a slightly above average wage and the market is not reasonable for me at the moment – so I shudder tho think how hard those earning less than me are doing.
"Statements like that just make people not listen to you even more than we already don't"
an absolute nugget Marc, we really should have a quotes of the week/month thread….thanks for this you have brightened my day, something unexpected coming out of the armageddon thread.
ummester wrote:ErikH wrote:Ormeau – I'm with crashy, your post is out of place and actually pretty low on facts and sound reasoning. One of the biggest empires of all times, the Roman Empire, did not fall apart due to depletion of local resources, but their decline was much more related to a decline in morals and increasing greed and corruption. I found "Empire of Debt" an interesting read in that it made the prediction a few years ago that the US was an Empire like the Roman Empire but that it's fiscal model was fundamentally flawed (Empire of Debt) and hence would self destruct and that it would al start with a collapse in housing. The authors also explored the similarities between the Roman Empire and the US in terms of the decline of morals. Interesting even though the book was 2-3 times as long as it needed to be…ErikH, I agree with your thoughts on Ormeau – this topic is too specific for his comments. I also agree with comparrison of modern US and Rome before it fell. And I wonder, is Australia a smaller version of that, or atleast connected enough to the US to fall a little with it?
Ummester, I don't think Australia is anywhere near in bad a shape as the US, it never was an Empire and never got itself into such a (financial) mess as the US did, but I think you're right in that Australia will stumble a bit as the US continues it's fall downwards. But I don't believe it will be more than a stumble as long as Australia and Australians recognize the global shift in power and influence and are willing to change their focus accordingly.
Scamp raises an interesting point in that China is indeed trying to secure Australian resources so the question is how do you keep China as a valued customer, get the (much needed?) investment from China but do not handover control over key companies and national resources…
ErikH wrote:Ummester, I don't think Australia is anywhere near in bad a shape as the US, it never was an Empire and never got itself into such a (financial) mess as the US did, but I think you're right in that Australia will stumble a bit as the US continues it's fall downwards. But I don't believe it will be more than a stumble as long as Australia and Australians recognize the global shift in power and influence and are willing to change their focus accordingly.Scamp raises an interesting point in that China is indeed trying to secure Australian resources so the question is how do you keep China as a valued customer, get the (much needed?) investment from China but do not handover control over key companies and national resources…
I guess we'll just have to vote for the goverment that promisies the best business relationships with China next time around…
Well… Rudd does speak fluent Mandarin, doesn't he?
Back onto topic, I found the following article on housing prices quite interesting: http://www.realestate.com.au/doc/review/july08/housing-prices.htm
Scamp wrote:Australia is a real nice country. Recessions will be everywhere, also in Europe, but they affect mostly people with debts, which we don't have and don't plan to have. Surely, we will lose some cash, who cares, we will build it up again after the recession. The whole point for us to move to Australia is to enjoy the nice weather, the beaches and the relaxed attitude of people.Make sure you move to Sydney then. They have some of the most relaxed people in the country because of the relaxation techniques training they do on a daily base, on the way to work and back . The current trends is toward 4 hrs/ day of relaxation and properties as far away from the beach as possible are favored. Something to do with global warming, I think, because the other side of Lithgow seems to be fast becoming a favorite with Sydney workers. You shouldn't have any problem finding lots of properties below cost near CBD and the beaches, up to 50% below market price in some cases.
Seriously thou, You are more likely to arrive here and find that most aussie IT jobs are outsourced to India and the pay is crap. If you 're looking to buy a place you'll have to compete with a dump truck operator, welder or cleaner working on some mine site in FNQ or NW of WA. He'll make 3-4 times your salary and if that's not enough competition you'll also have investors from Asia who are able to buy with cash, outbid you and hold for the long term. Then your choice will be to buy an "overpriced" property yourself or rent one from the cleaner or investor who outbid you in the first place. If only they could read your warnings about the CRASHING property market. Then while you are waiting for that 40% drop he'll be collecting half your income in rent and use it to pay off the property and even buy another one. After a year or two you'll probably get fat up with waiting for a crash, have enough of the nice weather with forty degrees plus, the beaches you were to busy working to enjoy, the nice people who are foaming at the mouth during a road rage attack and you'll miss your family and friends from back home. If your gf hasn't already left you by then you'll pack up your things and return to Holland wishing you never heard of Australia or Google Earth.
But don't give up your dream Scamp, we need more cashed up people coming here to buy or rent. It stops the property market from crashing, pushes property prices higher and keeps the recession away.cheers
harb……..
THATS GOLD !
Since you took your time to write such a nice post, I will reply inline.
harb wrote:Make sure you move to Sydney then. They have some of the most relaxed people in the country because of the relaxation techniques training they do on a daily base, on the way to work and back . The current trends is toward 4 hrs/ day of relaxation and properties as far away from the beach as possible are favored. Something to do with global warming, I think, because the other side of Lithgow seems to be fast becoming a favorite with Sydney workers.Do you think I am an idiot ? I'm an immigrant, just like you are ( unless you're an aboriginal ) but that doesn't mean I am stupid. I do my research on where to live, and Sydney is not on the list. That might change if houseprices drop and I have experienced the people. It might also not change, I'll see about that when I arrive in Australia. My dog needs quarantaine for a month, so I'll have a whole month to experience Sydney as it is. Furthermore, I have acquaintances who live in Sydney and can give me an impression of the city. The city is so big that there's bound to be good AND bad things in there. I'd be amazed to see only positives in Australia. Actually I don't expect Australia to be any better than The Netherlands. We need a change in life, and that's one thing that is sure to happen over in Australia : many things will be different ( take the weather for instance ).
harb wrote:You shouldn't have any problem finding lots of properties below cost near CBD and the beaches, up to 50% below market price in some cases.I would not be surprised to see this happening. 50% off the current prices would certainly be 'normal'. Prices as they are now are unsustainable in Australia. There is no way house prices will NOT drop. They have, in real terms in Sydney already dropped 30% , I'm sure you already knew this ? Anyway, still at least 30% more to go, up to 50% in some cases I'm sure. Sydney is the world's most unaffordable city. And from what I heard, people in Sydney aren't earning what people in Los Angeles ( Hollywood ? ) earn. It's unsustainable.
harb wrote:You are more likely to arrive here and find that most aussie IT jobs are outsourced to India and the pay is crap.Been there, done that. It's just a matter of time before the jobs come back. I've seen it happen in USA , Europe, and soon in Australia too. I might even specialize into 'post-outsourcing' drama consultancy. It's good business. Many businesses lost a lot of money on outsourcing stuff they shouldn't have, and have trouble getting that business back and integrated again. I've seen it all happen before. Australia is just a bit of a slow learner, that's all : And I can profit from that.
harb wrote:If you 're looking to buy a place you'll have to compete with a dump truck operator, welder or cleaner working on some mine site in FNQ or NW of WA. He'll make 3-4 times your salary and if that's not enough competition you'll also have investors from Asia who are able to buy with cash, outbid you and hold for the long term.Hm.. I seriously doubt anyone can outbid us to be honest. And why would I compete with those people ?
There's 50 times more houses for sale than there's buyers, didn't you know ?
If you were an asian investor, would you buy an overpriced, badly maintained house for 400.000AUD$ in a bad area with crap public transport in Australia, or would you buy 3 *NEW* houses for the same price in a good suburb in USA ? Really you clearly need to learn some investment basics. Who do you think is selling all those houses in Australia in an attempt to move out and get into USA property ?harb wrote:Then your choice will be to buy an "overpriced" property yourself or rent one from the cleaner or investor who outbid you in the first place. If only they could read your warnings about the CRASHING property market. Then while you are waiting for that 40% drop he'll be collecting half your income in rent and use it to pay off the property and even buy another one. After a year or two you'll probably get fat up with waiting for a crashWell.. there's the thing you see. He could be collecting half of my income. In which case I would still have half of my income to spend on living a nice life. I can also buy something and spend my WHOLE income on repayments. On top of this, the houseprices aren't going up for the next 3 years at least. At best, and this is utopia situation sketching, the houseprices will keep up with CPI ( and thus not get worth more in real terms ).
At worst, they will lose 80% of their value like in the USA. Let's get somewhere in the middle, and realistically speaking they will lose 40% of their value in 2-3 years. Why would I spend 2-3 years paying my whole income on something that loses SO much value, when I can rent for 2-3 years and then PAY CASH from what I earned in those 2-3 years ? Don't answer that, it was a rethorical question.harb wrote:, have enough of the nice weather with forty degrees plus, the beaches you were to busy working to enjoy, the nice people who are foaming at the mouth during a road rage attack and you'll miss your family and friends from back home. If your gf hasn't already left you by then you'll pack up your things and return to Holland wishing you never heard of Australia or Google Earth.I would be too busy to enjoy the beaches if I had to work overtime to keep up my mortgage repayments.
I'd rather rent and keep half my income to live my life. You only live once, and the premium of house ownership don't sound that appealing in a crashing market. I can invest my money in other things and earn more than I would earn by owning 20 houses.. so why own 20 houses and have the crap of tenants and stress, if I can easily earn the same or more by investing my money otherwise ? ( rethorical )harb wrote:But don't give up your dream Scamp, we need more cashed up people coming here to buy or rent. It stops the property market from crashing, pushes property prices higher and keeps the recession away.
[/quoteIt doesn't stop the property market from crashing. Just look at Los Angeles and UK who have a HUGE housing shortage compared to Australia, do you see their house prices going up because of immigration or their housing shortage ?… ( rethorical ).
I'd gladly rent and have everything taken care of. I could also just buy something if the right place comes up for the right price. I have seen some nice properties that are just a little overvalued, I'd gladly pay that with cash and get 20% or 30% rebate + FHOG + no taxes. Or I might go and have some fun at auctions. Who knows.
One thing is sure, I will enjoy the changes in my life that Australia will give me. I hope you enjoy your life too Harb.
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