Bugger – Don't know what happened there
I agree totally John
Im attending auctions and Im getting sick of it. As an investment I can't see a return but for mum ,dad & 2 kids, 2 income couples the biding still goes on. Im after a nice place to live in as my PPOR I would like to think it will also make me a nice profit if I sell but as an invest ment the capit gains are not there at present and maybe not in the near future. I think I will stick my money in the bank and go sit on the beach in pattaya, Thailand for the 2 years.
Cheers
Tony….Hi Scamp,
I have been on this forum few a few years now and even thou i dont post that often i always look at what people have to say. Your comments are stupid like yourself. There are plenty of people of have done very well and still continue to do so including my wife and myself. We are very selective on what we buy and we still do very nicely so your comments are just outrages. You are a f***fit of the greatest proportions so why dont you go back to your little warren and leave the people of this forum alone.
ChefmanChefman, I do not post here much either but surely Scamp has much entitlement to an opinion as you do. To debase the whole thread by swearing really reveals more about you than it does Scamp. I sit in the middle of this whole thread as I do believe houses are overvalued but I doubt we will see wholesale crashes, particularly in the inner city areas. The point Scamp raises about property prices as a ratio of average salaries is very valid; for instance, the average Aussie pay is $57,324 (http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,22763090-462,00.html) whereas Sydney's Median house price is $565,161. (http://www.rpdata.com/derivatives/hedhist.html). This is a touch under 10 times. Our ability to borrow money, repay that money and consequently buy the home we want is totally dependent upon our salaries, interest rates, economic conditions etc. Even the most ardent of property investors would be cautious with such obvious signs to the contrary in the current climate of high interest rates, rising living costs, fuel prices etc. Please play the ball and NOT the man in any future posts.
chefman wrote:Hi Scamp,
You are a f***fit of the greatest proportions so why dont you go back to your little warren and leave the people of this forum alone.
ChefmanLOL someone is feeling the pressure of a deflating market and looming recession
Dont worry Chefman-just wait seven years and your property price will have doubled bwhahahahahaHope this thread does not devolve, but although I think Scamp is a little too sensational, I think his basics are right.
One issue that was not mentioned during the hype of the boom was the role of inflation. From the early 70s to the early 90s inflation pushed up prices. In the good old days I was staggered at my dads salary as CFO of a major listed pub comp, could not beleive people could earn so much…. fast forward a couple of decades and kids at McDonalds earn more.
Prices were driven by many factors, not existing at the moment, don't not eaxactly what the new model is, but the old one is dead and buried.
Right now if your IPs are not going up 5% pa you are going backwards in real terms,
Markets are driven by lemmings not the gurus or the educated. Pretty clear where the lennings are heading now.
Remember little old me?
Environmentalists say a CSIRO report predicting the price of petrol could rise to $8 a litre in 10 years should serve as a wake up call to the public and governments.
ormeau wrote:Remember little old me?Environmentalists say a CSIRO report predicting the price of petrol could rise to $8 a litre in 10 years should serve as a wake up call to the public and governments.
They also stated that $8 was a worse case scenario . They predicted between $2 and $8 and did not factor in the use of alternate fuels within that 10 year period.
I believe that $8 is an underestimate. Remember, there is no one silver bullet guys. http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/news/audio/twt/200807/20080711-twt-02-csiro-report.mp3
Well im sure our wages wont be the ones keeping up with this prediction. x $54k by 4 = around $200k P.A
Hm. At the rate inflation is going up, I am fearing that the USA chose the 'easy' way out. Like I posted earlier already, there are only two ways to solve the house price problem :
– Deflate houseprices
– Inflate EVERYTHING else while houseprices stay the same, so houseprices in proportion go down.The thing about lemmings is, they can regulate only parts of the market. Things like FED interest rates, printing of money or countrywide regulations like the release of land , are not regulated by lemmings but are regulated by the 'gurus' or the 'experts'.
Hence my reason to believe that out of the two options, the so called 'experts' would make the right decision , which is anything else except inflation. I don't think the effects of inflation , especially out-of-control inflation like we are seeing today, or even hyperinflation, which is looming now in USA, are completely understood by these 'experts'. It seems that the USA is getting real close to becoming a third world country now, which is being articulated by the first signs of hyperinflation ( something that you only really see in third world countries ).I think the FED has chosen the inflation way out. They have no clue on what effect this will have on their economy, let alone on the future of the USA. I fear that the USA could be overcome by the same problem as USSR. And we all know what happened to USSR. I for one can see the end of the USA as a world power, and maybe even as a 'united states' breaking up into smaller countries.
This ofcourse is a worst case scenario, but in the end we might be better off without the USA than with them. The FED is the only cause of this massive global creidt problem, and they are doing everything they can to offload their problem to other countries.I don't expect anyone to see the real implications of this crisis : But I can tell you , so far we have seen only the very beginning of what is to become the worst financial and economic crash in history, making the 1929 crash look like a breeze.
ormeau wrote:I believe that $8 is an underestimate. Remember, there is no one silver bullet guys. http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/news/audio/twt/200807/20080711-twt-02-csiro-report.mp3
Maybe so but i assume they had some knowlagable people formulate that response. So are we expected to acknowledge the report but rubbish their findings.Bit confused.
I do agree that there is not a single silver bullet to fix this, Changes are comming but we will get through it.
Anyone who says gas prices will reach $8 has no understanding of real economics. Such statements are issued partly via projected growth rates in price increases which are straightforward projections without inputting any realworld constraints in their financial modelling – basically a lazyman's way of doing projections.
I think there is a chance that gas will hit $2, but hitting $8 is the equivalent of losing Russia and the Middle East oil fields due to armageddon. I have been trading oil futures for some time now, and I can tell you that quite a significant contributor to the increase in prices is due to market speculation by the big players. That may increase for the near future due to a lack of more attractive investments and volatility, but over the long term any commodities' prices will return to the mean. When the oil futures bubble burst, it will be as dramatic and painful (for vested players) as the dotcom burst back in 2001.
I have been hearing this a bit lately. Many people in the know are discribing current oil prices as a bubble. One that will burst eventually and return prices to normal levels.Not expecting a dollar a litre ever again but well below current levels.
So I wonder why the traders have jumped on oil since January? Hmmm, anybody? Because while they were doing their homework on peak oil the rest of the sheeple were worrying about buying ther next plastic pumpkin. The traders know we have peaked, they know there will be war between Iran.
One thing I like about forums, you can always look back.
I've been saying Iran war is unavoidable since February. By the way, fuel prices in holland are already 3$ per litre.
Saying fuel prices won't reach 2$ or higher is bollocks : They will. I must admit, 8$ is the doom scenario that even I ( Mr. Doom&Gloom ) find a bit on the high side. I think in the years to come fuel will come to about 4$ per litre and stay stable, mainly due to replacement on fuel prices. After fuel has been replaced by other energy, fuel prices could go up to 20$ or more per litre, basically becoming a luxury item rather than a common good. But by that time, it won't matter much anyway, since the world won't be depending on fuel anymore, it will be the few 'V8 Dodge Chargers' etc running through the streets from the yuppies, the rest will own normal electric cars, either powered entirely by solar power, or relying on hydrogen fuel cells or waterpowered or something in the same lines.Scamp wrote:I've been saying Iran war is unavoidable since February. By the way, fuel prices in holland are already 3$ per litre.
Saying fuel prices won't reach 2$ or higher is bollocks : They will. I must admit, 8$ is the doom scenario that even I ( Mr. Doom&Gloom ) find a bit on the high side. I think in the years to come fuel will come to about 4$ per litre and stay stable, mainly due to replacement on fuel prices. After fuel has been replaced by other energy, fuel prices could go up to 20$ or more per litre, basically becoming a luxury item rather than a common good. But by that time, it won't matter much anyway, since the world won't be depending on fuel anymore, it will be the few 'V8 Dodge Chargers' etc running through the streets from the yuppies, the rest will own normal electric cars, either powered entirely by solar power, or relying on hydrogen fuel cells or waterpowered or something in the same lines.WOW. I completely agree with this.
Scamp wrote:I've been saying Iran war is unavoidable since February. By the way, fuel prices in holland are already 3$ per litre.Wow, that's about $2 in tax. No wonder they can afford the level of health care and welfare they get over there.
Its okay to have Holland paying $3 for gas, they have shorter distances compared to Australia food mileage
Dont worry Chefman-just wait seven years and your property price will have doubled bwhahahahaha
You must be logged in to reply to this topic. If you don't have an account, you can register here.
