Best advice : Don’t invest into property : The australian market is CRASHING.

Are Scamp's comments re a potential housing crash any more damaging than those who say property will keep on rising?

I would think not. Everyone is entitled to their view.

It crosses the line though, when someone with a sales pitch or service to promote, gives their view to generate business.

Scamp……seriously……I've been investing in the Australian property market for 40 years…..your a fool

I assume you can tell us all when the meteor is going to hit and awaken the new ice age and give rebirth to the dinosuars to?

Thats the most worthy response your comments afford

I agree. People with rose-colored glasses are just as dangerous as those from the GHPC mentality.

I think we are all quite able to hear both sides and make up our own mind.

Personally, I don't mind if people are trawling for business on the forum as long as they are also adding knowledge and information of value to the debate.

There are several people here who fall into this category.

As for Scamp's big warning; I look it as a signal to get the check book out.

Warren Buffet said; "I buy my straw hats in the winter."

There will be plenty of cheap property on the market in the coming months, so the investor who has done their research and has followed the markets will know where and when to buy.

Having said that, I still believe that a nice, but average home in a nice, but average suburb, well located and in good condition will always keep it's value. Why? Because everyone wants to live in one, and can usually afford to buy one. The demand is always there – regardless of the economic climate.

If you want to go out and seek the more "speculative" types of property which are high end, high rent etc, then yes, you can get your fingers badly burned as there are less people at the top end to rent and/or buy, and a lot of the higher income earners are not that smart with their money – they are good at spending up big with little concern of the future. So when they lose their job, or get sick and can't work etc, or the rates skyrocket as they have done in the last year or so, these people are often the ones who will fall the hardest, and their properties often have the biggest corrections in price.

The psychology of fear and greed is surely worth a discussion.

The fear/greed mentality is pervasive.

Scamp's ideas about people operating from fear is pretty spot on. Fear of missing out and greed fed by wanting more and more is a strong driver for most people. Your average person knows very little about the cycles of the market and operates from this place and based on how the media plays it.

It's refreshing to hear someone comment on this.

What's happening in the UK right now?

Hi, I vote we bar Scamp from this forum until he says he's walked around the suburbs for a month at least. Otherwise, garbage should remain where he is.

I know these people. Vera & husband have son Justin aged 35 who should have his own home but procrastinated & had just recently moved back into parents' home. Daughter C is 24 & still living at home.

Cathy & husband have 2 sons, older one bought own unit, younger one [28] still renting.

Martina & husband built own house in Morphett Vale 3 years ago, 2 sons then 14 & 11.

Mihael Loh's 3 children [40s] have all their own homes + 8 growing teenagers, the oldest is 17.

Let's fast forward 7 years. We have 3 couples from 52 – 70, ALL living in their own homes. Then we have 6 aged 35-42 and 8 aged 18-30 approx.

We need 14 houses just for this small group of people I know.

If I offer you $50K for your house, does it mean your house is worth $50K? Nonsense!

Scamp, I'm a fool responding to your nonsense but I will PAY you ten thousand if you can get a 60% discount on the asking price.

KY

I've been eyeing an area in Queensland for a while now. "Woodridge" Houses are 279,000 a week ago; I even had a letter in the mail from a Woodridge realestate agent ELDERS stating prices have dropped 10 – 15 % So sellers should be realistic about their asking price.

But I had a look online today 15 / 5 /2008 An the average new listing has shot up to 310,000 an some realestates are calling these houses a bargin.

I've looked back to the houses which are 279,000 an they still haven't sold! So I hit the pavement an asked around to find out the average house is taking about 60 days or more to sell. Quote "No ones walking through the door at the moment" MYAGENT realty said.

Do you believe some realestates are artificially inflating the prices?

It's fact that there is a shortage of housing, why do you think rents are rising in most markets?

With regards to mortgage stress, I spoke to a guy from Pepper Home Loans yesterday (a non conforming lender, for those who don't know) he told me that only about 30% of defaults on their books were caused by people not being able to afford their interest repayments, most were because they have lost their job or have become unable to work for some reason. It is also notable that only around half the dwellings in Australia actually have a mortgage on them.

I think you will find that mortgage stress is largely concentrated in areas where there are large numbers of new home buyers. There will be relatively few forced sales in established suburbs.

Regards
Alistair

Sydney
Kellyville drops from 850 to 550 wipes out builders as completed houses are now cheaper than house & land

Adjoining suburbs Castle Hill and Cherrybrook drop from 850 to 720

Pennant Hills drops down and so it rolls.

Why buy a townhouse in Baulkham Hills from a builder for 480 when you can buy a three bedroom house with Db garage in same suburb for 450,

just rolls inwards in concentric circles

Don't be loudly irresponsible Scamp, if you don't know how to invest in the current market, then either DON'T, or learn how by joining the RESULTS program. I did, because I want to learn how.   
The market is there all the time and is always full of opportunity.       
Hope you find some, that is, if you want some.   
cheers
thecrest