Nice statistics. Although i would like to know how other areas went. Population changes,and types of properties available.Vacancies are not going to keep getting tighter for ever. Everyone knows this but a slight change does not mean all is about to changePick any monthly period from your statistics and you get as different result.Could you please add the amount of houses vacant and for sale please. I bet that number is rising to meaning the former residents are now looking for somewhere to rent.. Crap imaging the rent you could get for the last available house in Sydney.

So when people cant sell there IP,s they rent them adding to the rental pool hey. Arent they already renting them.I think the bigger effect will be PPOR owners moving out and renting as the sell or lose there homes.Although i do agree that they will stabilise at some point.
You can throw all the figures you want around the proof is on the street. The better quality rentals are hard to get. That go,s for the city and country towns.I have a rental in a regional town. They are lining up to rent it. Its not a stat. Its a FACT.
I like how slight changes in% rates mean massive changes to some.

I remember when things started moving in housing values some time back. The news stated how some houses have doubled in value and the doom and gloomers scoff at investers who thought all houses will do the same. Now a few drop and they cant state quick enough that all will drop. So one minute all homes are different. Then the next they are all the same. Its Just your typical grabbing  of one example and forming a response from that to cover the broader market.

Oh my god  a house in sydneys west just halved in value so that means my house in broom is about to do the same SELL SELL SELL.
After all that i do actually believe values will drop but not equally across the country.
Some will lose heaps
Some will lose a little
Some will stagnate
Some will go up
This is no different to any other year . Its just the percentages that change.
Thats my rant. Bed time now.

The global market is changing US and UK are toast and Aussie is in a good position with BRIC economies commodity prices aint going down anytime soon.   Just returned from the gas fields and there is so much work it aint funny.

Scamp have you seen the chart of Australain house prices over time and why do you think it will be different this time.

why yes I think I used to hear that phrase in the 80's,  I thought the world had changed a bit since then.  The EU and the rise of China and India and eventually Latin America have changed the game somewhat.   The US still has a big impact but trotting out old mantras doesnt really mean much.   I was interested to know if there had been a housing crash that we had followed in 18 months.    

Good pick up I see that you are smarter than the avearge bear.

the graph was done from the prespective of a FTB and entry level housing as the FTB's does not start of on the median house price. 

Two young ladies from work  have just got married and both bought townhouses in the outer suburbs of Brisbane and theyt are making repayments is it a struggle ? probably no less than when I bought my first home.

$60bn windfall to cushion economy

• Darren Gray
• June 24, 2008
• Page 1 of 2 | Single Page View

THE biggest surge in commodity exports in Australia's history will deliver a powerful boost to the economy in 2008-09, swelling company profits and government coffers and cushioning the nation against global shocks, according to new forecasts.

But the next phase of the boom will also have a downside, adding to pressure on inflation and interest rates at a time when many people and businesses are struggling to cope.

The boom will be led by sales of metals, minerals and farm produce, which could earn the nation a record $212.3 billion in 2008-09, up $61 billion on this year, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE).

"It's the biggest helicopter drop of money onto the Australian economy that we've seen since wool prices went crazy during the Korean War," declared Access Economics director Chris Richardson. "It means that the world is giving us a pay rise for what we already do."

The ABARE forecasts could yet turn out to be conservative, with news last night that China's steel industry had caved in to demands by mining giant Rio for massive increases in iron ore prices from Australia.

While the boom will particularly boost the resource-rich states of Western Australia and Queensland, economists say the benefits will be felt nationwide.

As mining companies boost production to meet overseas demand, state governments will collect more revenue in mining royalties and payroll taxes.

The Federal Government will be a massive beneficiary, collecting more tax both directly from the mining giants' profits, and indirectly through the additional economic activity and national income generated by the mining boom.

Shareholders in the mining companies will also benefit from higher dividend payments.

Mr Richardson said the record commodity export boost was "bigger than Christmas", with Australian income growing at a rate not seen in a generation.

"Despite all the headlines about US in recession, China and a bunch of other emerging economies, India and the rest of them … they're still growing very fast," he said.

Surging prices for mined commodities such as iron ore, coal and crude oil, combined with higher export volumes, will be the main drivers of next year's boom, with earnings from mineral and energy exports tipped to be $177.9 billion, up from $120.5 billion in 2007-08, ABARE says.

The value of metallurgical coal exports is tipped to jump 123% to $39.1 billion, while iron ore exports are projected to jump 72% to $35.3 billion. Earnings from other minerals and energy groups will also soar. Thermal coal exports are tipped to jump 74% to $15.9 billion, crude oil exports 46% to $15.3 billion and gold 14% to $12.5 billion.

While the top 10 commodity export earners are all from the minerals and energy sector rather than agriculture, the ABARE report contains good news for farmers too. Export earnings from Australian farms are tipped to jump more than 12% to $30.2 billion in 2008-09, largely because of a turnaround in wheat export earnings and continued growth in the value of wine exports.

But the good news for farm exports is qualified. The figures assume a return to normal seasonal conditions after a prolonged drought, which cannot be guaranteed by economists working in a Canberra office.

The increase in total farm sector exports is underpinned by a projected 65% rise in winter crop production, a 13% increase in the amount of land sown for wheat to 14 million hectares and historically high world wheat prices.

ANZ Bank chief economist Saul Eslake said the export jump would have a significant economic impact. "That's a boost of about 5% to our national income, which if you think about it is a very significant increase," he said. "If you think that ordinarily a year's worth of economic growth is worth 3%, this is more than a year's economic growth in normal circumstances."

David Rynne, director of economics at the Minerals Council of Australia, said the export growth would create more jobs and a stimulus for companies to bring forward investments.

"People are going to generate some fairly high incomes and they're going to be able to do whatever they want with that income and create wealth," Mr Rynne said. "It will also create very, very high royalty and income tax collections for state and federal governments."

I invite you to read this:

http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/coughs-and-splutters/2008/06/27/1214472770918.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap2

And also this one for our market:

http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/house-prices-falling-and-spreading/2008/06/27/1214472770814.html

IT COULD be a warning sign, or maybe just a blip. Property sales are flashing a signal that the fall in Sydney house prices will not be limited to the city's west.

An analysis of 2008 sales reveals that the great Sydney equation – take property, mix with water views, and you cannot go wrong – could be breaking down.

Even at Bondi, where prices have jumped 12.6 per cent in the past four years, the median price has fallen 1.6 per cent this year after 42 sales, figures from Australian Property Monitors show.

At Avoca Beach on the Central Coast, 115 houses have changed hands this year for a median price of $546,000 – 5 per cent lower than last year's.

In the nearby holiday spot of MacMasters Beach, median sale prices have fallen 15.6 per cent. A few falls do not necessarily make a trend. But property insiders are warning there is little confidence in a market rocked by rising interest rates, fuel prices and a skittish stockmarket.

"Everyone is sitting on their hands," said Kim Quick, a property valuer at Herron Todd White.

The AMP Capital Investors chief economist, Shane Oliver, warned that Sydney property was about 20 per cent over-valued.

Property prices are tumbling in the US and parts of Britain, and Australian house prices are even more expensive in comparison.

In the US the ratio of annual income to house prices is about 3:1. In Australia it is about 6:1.

"I think the weakness we are seeing out west will start to spread to the better suburbs," DrOliver said.

"It wouldn't surprise me if they came off about 10 per cent over the next 12 months, and that fall being widespread."

In Newport, on the northern beaches, 163 houses have been sold this year, the most recent figures from Australian Property Monitors show. This year's median house price has been 2.2per cent lower than last year's.

Real estate agents in some Sydney beachside suburbs say the local downturn is little more than a quirk. Water views will always generate plenty of interest.

In Tamarama, tucked between Bondi and Bronte, a house in Thompson Street sold for a record $10million this week.

The principal at Raine & Horne Palm Beach, Glenn Lee, said: "What we're seeing now is a patchy market in some sectors and strength in others.

"With the premium properties, these are sophisticated players who are simply waiting for the right place to appear." The agency is listing a waterfront house in Newport at $1.85 million, after it failed to sell at an auction with a reserve price of more than $2million.

At the top end of the market, in Palm Beach, 58 houses have been sold for 5.6 per cent less than the median price last year.

The fall comes after a 62 per cent jump in the median house price, to $2.55million, in the past four years.

I think Australians are BLIND.

MIAMI, FLORIDA: HOUSING CRASH 50% OFF!!!!

This little video was created about 9 months ago……just think that things have got worse since.
 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tkuW8bCjC6c

Why do you think that the US Fed has chosen not to act on inflation in the US in fact they are doing the opposite you have a situation where IR's are way lower than inflation and only last week the Fed yet again failed to act ?