Its been a long lazy weekend and given last weeks bear market I am racking my brains working out where to invest my spare equity and the more I think about the more sense it makes to go for the black gold. At least I have convinced myself coupled with the fact that my comapny are setting up in Abu Dahbi this year it has to be the best shot.
The Shell CEO Jeroen van der Veer says that 2015 will be the year that supply will not keep up with demand in an email to employees.
Yes who knows when peak oil will happen or if it already has but one thing is for sure demand is growing by the day eg:
India has currently four cars for every 1000 adults opposed to say the US which has 1000 cars for every 1000 adults. The Indian govt is actively promoting car ownership and hopes to quadruple sales by 2016 not bad consdiering there is 1.1 billion of them now. Now we have the super cheap Tato Nano Indian sedan that will cost just US $ 2500 on the road it looks like the govt target will be welll and truly exceeded.
Chinese drivers aint sitting on their hands either with 14000 new cars on the raod every day.
Mexico one of the US biggest suppliers of oil is plauged with bad news production fell 8.2% last year and will keep falling at 10% a year.
Dont believe the western propoganda hype that OPEC are controlling prices its well known that they cheat the restrictions and sell as much as they can why wouldn't they with increasing prices. The UAE is planning to double its production in the next 5 years and thats big.
This rising demand should see an ever increasing price of oil per barrel and as production cost at less than 30 a barrel is not increasing commensurate with selling prices.
How can we exploit this situation, eg:
– invest in up and coming oil companies that are finding more oil than they pump ie growing reserves and strong profits;
– invest in one of the Canadian oil from sands company that have very lean production costs;
-`invest in some of the companies that are selling oil field equipment to exploration and production companies; and last but not least
– buy a strecthed Hummer with high running costs offset by your increasing oil portfolio and splash out on a strecthed hummer reunion party when oil hits 200 a barrel.
At least the theory stacks up, yes?
Woodside might be a good safe buy as well.
omitted to add this to last post
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23118018-3102,00.html
Forgot to add to investment strategy:
identify and invest in small under capitalised uranium developers,
does anyone know of any ?
I heard on ABC radio that it takes 300mils of oil to make a 1 litre plastic water bottle so we can drink more conveniently.
In 2008, we’re going to hit an important milestone: This year is when the world is going to start using oil at a rate of more than 1,000 barrels PER SECOND.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil demand will average 87.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2008, up from 85.7 million bpd in 2007. At 87.8 million bpd, we’ll use 1,016 barrels per second — a sonic boom of energy use.
bardon wrote:Forgot to add to investment strategy:identify and invest in small under capitalised uranium developers,
does anyone know of any ?
Before uranium,…. Take a look at coal seam methane.
Take a look at QGC ( queensland gas company ) and AOE ( Arrow energy ).
Coal seam methane is going to be big,….. Why?
– Coal seam methane can be used in the same way as regular natural gas and natural gas demand is going to go through the roof,
Why will natural gas demand grow?.
– Gas is the fuel or choice for new power plants because it is greener, and electricity demand is set to grow, especially if you take into account plugin hybrid cars which toyota has said could be on the road by 2009.
– Natural gas is the fuel of choice for domestic use such as cooking, hotwater and heating and it is being supplied to more and more towns around australia.
– Natural gas use will grow as a transport fuel as oil becomes more and more expensive, both directly as compressed natural gas and also using gas to liquid technolgy where the gas can substitute both un leadeded fuel and diesel.
– And to top it all off Australia has a growing Liquified natural Gas export industry where we are exporting Gas to be used for all the reasons listed above, and with peaking oil and demand for gas growing the current gas price will only go up.
both companies that I listed above have producing gas fields in queensland and massive reserves that they are continually adding to.
QGC already has plans to link there fields to the sydney grid to replace the moomba fields which is in decline and is building a power plant which it will feed with it's own gas.
AOE is also going good, the main differance it has with QGC is that it is exploring opportunities to drill for coal seam gas close to the big asian markets aswell as grow it's Australian portfoilio.
Thanks Tysonboss fully agree with your assessment and I know the industry very very well. QGC I was out there two weeks ago. Arrow Energy shares have taken a big dive recently so might be good buying except I know people that work for them and they tell me things that scare me.
Moomba is diminshing but still producing, they are also developing many csm gas wells in western QLD and might be a good buy before they get taken over.
ALso there will be a gas shortge in the eastern sates in 2012 the PNG to QLD Gas pipeline was to overcome this and it has been cancelled.
I still want the uranium though as a bit of diversification and the poms have just signed off on a nuclear powered future.
Shell net profit rises a mere 60 per centhttp://news.smh.com.au/shell-net-profit-ri…80131-1pbt.html
oneplumber wrote:I heard on ABC radio that it takes 300mils of oil to make a 1 litre plastic water bottle so we can drink more conveniently.Did you know how harmful the water in that bottle is ?
Exxon Mobil breaks its own profits records
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/biz/5505076.html
bardon wrote:I still want the uranium though as a bit of diversification and the poms have just signed off on a nuclear powered future.
I personally would only invest money in a uranium company if it were producing, At the moment I feel to much speculative money is flowing into uranium and there is a lack of producing companies on reasonable P/E ratios.
I Know the the Nuclear industry has been silently growing with most of the worlds plants increasing capacity, How ever I feel the coming boom in nuclear energy is still some years off, There are still some hurdles that need to be over come before it is full staem ahead with neclear, The biggest issue beening some sort of longterm storage for the waste, There is currently no longterm storage for spent fuel rods anuwhere in the world. Power plants are just stockpiling the spents rods till governments appove a longterm facilty some where in the world, I think Australia should put there hand up for this.
Tysonboss1 wrote:bardon wrote:I still want the uranium though as a bit of diversification and the poms have just signed off on a nuclear powered future.
I personally would only invest money in a uranium company if it were producing, At the moment I feel to much speculative money is flowing into uranium and there is a lack of producing companies on reasonable P/E ratios.
I Know the the Nuclear industry has been silently growing with most of the worlds plants increasing capacity, How ever I feel the coming boom in nuclear energy is still some years off, There are still some hurdles that need to be over come before it is full staem ahead with neclear, The biggest issue beening some sort of longterm storage for the waste, There is currently no longterm storage for spent fuel rods anuwhere in the world. Power plants are just stockpiling the spents rods till governments appove a longterm facilty some where in the world, I think Australia should put there hand up for this.
Excellent double investment strategy producing it, selling it then getting it back and storing the waste forever good solid long term earnings.
Whether or not the storage problem is resolved many countries are commiting to nuclear energy. Not forgetting the price of uranium had a major crash recently so maybe its at the bottom now.
Oil is definetly far to cheap at the moment for any alternative energy to come even close to it read the exxon report about supply constraints as well 200 a barrel on the way. QGC faired very well in the recent bear market as well, Arrow energy also had interesting low point and ramp up.
Tysonboss1 wrote:[
Take a look at QGC ( queensland gas company ) and AOE ( Arrow energy ).Coal seam methane is going to be big,….. Why?
Dont say you never told us
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23154884-952,00.html
QGC closed up 18% on days trading
bardon wrote:
Arrow Energy shares have taken a big dive recently so might be good buying except I know people that work for them and they tell me things that scare me..
Hi Bardon,
I want to increase my holding in Arrow,…. What have you heared that scares you.
Tysonboss1 wrote:bardon wrote:
Arrow Energy shares have taken a big dive recently so might be good buying except I know people that work for them and they tell me things that scare me..
Hi Bardon,
I want to increase my holding in Arrow,…. What have you heared that scares you.
Not for general consumption….drop me a PM with your phone and I will give you a buzz
Oil Price hitting new highs over US$130 a barrel,….
Lucky for us the Australian dollar has been increasing over the past few years,… I would hate to go back to 1 A$1.00 only buying US$0.50c,…. that would mean 1 Barrel would be worth $260 Aussie dollars
I think current oil markets are prooving peak oil theories correct,…. Since 2005 production of conventional crude has dropped by 5millon barrels per day.
Crude oil prices rallied near this week's sky-high records on Friday on concerns that global output will not satisfy rising demand and speculation on the back of a weak US dollar.
New York's main oil futures contract, light sweet crude for July delivery, rose $US1.38 to close at $US132.19 a barrel, shy of its record close at $US133.17 reached on Wednesday. It struck an intraday peak of $US133.71.
In London, Brent North Sea crude for July delivery hit a high of $US133.74 then settled at $US131.57 a barrel, up $US1.06.
On Thursday, Brent struck an all-time high of $US135.14 and New York crude reached a record $US135.09, before both contracts plunged as investors banked profits.
The two benchmark contracts have climbed more than six in a week.Oil at $US150 a barrel is now just a few weeks' trading away,
With supply struggling to meet demand, oil at $US300 per barrel is not inconceivable on a five-year horizon,With this sort of pressure I'm sure Chalco will be pushing harder for the Shale Oil mine in Proserpine QLD
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