Hi Tysonboss. Don't forget that correlation does not imply causation and that even if a causal relationship exists, its direction of influence may be unknown. So, could it be that world demand for oil slowed sharply when prices passed a certain threshold? A casual observation also shows that the sudden escalation in price occurred several years before the drop in production. This certainly weakens the case for a causal relationship!
F. [cowboy2]
foundation wrote:Hi Tysonboss. Don't forget that correlation does not imply causation and that even if a causal relationship exists, its direction of influence may be unknown. So, could it be that world demand for oil slowed sharply when prices passed a certain threshold? A casual observation also shows that the sudden escalation in price occurred several years before the drop in production. This certainly weakens the case for a causal relationship!
F. [cowboy2]
G'day F,
Well whats your take on the Oil situation,…. do you think it'll be business as usual forever and a day,
No, not business as usual forever. All my efforts to understand the situation have led me to conclude that oil is in finite supply (at least over the timeframes we're concerned with) and will become scarce and valuable in the future. I don't think we will ever completely run out of oil, it will just become too expensive to use/waste as we currently do. I've also noticed that oil and its value-added offspring are currently very cheap. I expect over time everything that relies on oil or plastics for manufacture, cultivation or transport will become more expensive, but I think there is scope for such products to increase several fold in price before society breaks down into some mad max kind of scenario! This should enable us to produce alternative sources (I know, that's the wrong word) of energy and restructure our societies and economies to cope with a post-cheap-oil future. See how much of an optimist I am!?
As for peak oil, I think it's very likely that we are somewhere near the peak of oil production, perhaps +/- 10 years. That really doesn't overly bother me. I'd be the first person to support petrol prices of $3 or $4 per litre (or above) on environmental grounds, and the scope for technical innovation in alternatives would be huge at that level, given the enourmous profits that innovators could make.
Hey Luke (topic starter), given your extensive reading/research into peak oil, have you gleaned any insight as to how you can profit from it? I'm not asking you to share investment tips or secrets, just trying to prompt you to think about it. Information/knowledge is one of the most valuable investing tools a person can have, particularly if this information is not widely shared. If you can profit from advantageous knowledge, do it. Whether by applying this knowledge to the relative value you place on the location of your investment property or simply to a share investing strategy, make it work for you.
Cheers, F. [cowboy2]
If there is no oil there will be no war as every war machine runs on oil.
I read recently in the Age that Singapore was experimenting with a tidal power station and using the power generated to convert water into hydrogen to run their cars on.
I think that a certain country that can spend over a trillion dollars on one war will spend over a trillion dollars on developing an alternative fuel source to keep their war machines running.
If Fusion (Hydrogen – Sun type reaction) can be contained as this is all that is preventing a large scale reactor from being developed we will have more energy than all the fossil fuel already used from 1 cubic metre of sea water.
The heat is so hot that magnetic fields are trying to be developed to hold the reaction in.
Everything else melts.
http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/print/1258I suspect oil companies have purchased an invention developed in 1979 that converts water to hydrogen with very little electrical power and uses it on demand rather than storing it. It was developed and mentioned in Electronics Australia in 1979.
http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/print/1258F,
Thats excactly my thoughts on the issue,. I am not saying that we can expect oil supply to stop.
I am just saying that the production will not met the demand,… The only thing that the average guy on the street will notice is the steady rise of oil based fuel costs and transportation year by year.
and hopefully Increasly the use of alternatives will offset the major production declines,…however for this to happen it will take a major change in thinking and alot of investment dollars,…. I have already set up an investment trust where I am investing using the dollar cost averageing method in investments in industries I feel will benefit from the coming energy transition,…
People with their head in the sand on this issue will surely miss the boat on some great investment opportunites.
"Tysonboss1" wrote:What are you trying to say with that link?I claimed that there were more known oil reserves now than in the 1970s.
You claimed that was untrue.
Hence the link.
Sure, oil production will decrease, but meh. We'll adapt, improvise and overcome – we always do. Oil wasn't a resource until people found a way to use it.
duckster wrote:If there is no oil there will be no war as every war machine runs on oil.
I read recently in the Age that Singapore was experimenting with a tidal power station and using the power generated to convert water into hydrogen to run their cars on.
I think that a certain country that can spend over a trillion dollars on one war will spend over a trillion dollars on developing an alternative fuel source to keep their war machines running.
If Fusion (Hydrogen – Sun type reaction) can be contained as this is all that is preventing a large scale reactor from being developed we will have more energy than all the fossil fuel already used from 1 cubic metre of sea water.
The heat is so hot that magnetic fields are trying to be developed to hold the reaction in.
Everything else melts.
http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/print/1258I suspect oil companies have purchased an invention developed in 1979 that converts water to hydrogen with very little electrical power and uses it on demand rather than storing it. It was developed and mentioned in Electronics Australia in 1979.
http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/print/1258Hydrogen as a fuel is a long way off,…. It is probally one of the least apropriate technologies.
heres my 2 cents
I laugh at the fact that HOLDEN brags about the fact that it spent $1 billion developing that "All new" commodore.
The V8 is not even as powerful or as fast as the V6 because it is heavier. What logic is there in having a V8? Just to burn more oil?
Also I would much rather buy the last model commodore with different running gear and a motor that runs on water or whatever.
I can tell you $1 billion would have been able to develop a fully functional car that doesn't depend on gas,oil,petrol, or nuclear.
I think the original point to the post was as an economic one. If we run out of oil, will economies survive? In 25 years time will a penthouse on the gold coast that is now $5mil cost $20mil, or be worth $100,000??
Sustainability has been reached and passed. We could crush the world back to Neanderthal days. I guess it would be a bad thing, but oil dependency will force a down turn in the economy when we do run out.
Will the land collapse with out oil under it holding the ground at its level??I am suprised by the lack of knowledge on this subject in general society.
Peak oil will not only have an enormous economic impact but it will also cause massive amounts of starvation and alot more wars in the sort term. The world can only naturally feed between 1.5 to 2 billion people and at the moment there are around 6.5 billion people in the world and increasing. All commercially used fertilizers are petroleum based. This is alot of desperate people, for every 1 calorie of food eaten today in western civilizations it has taken 10 calories to get it to your plate and this energy is primarily derived from oil.Every aspect of modern day society has been created and relies heavily on cheap energy. The timing is what is the concerning thing. To have a smooth transition to alternative energies we would have had to start implementing alternatives around 20 years before peak oil. If peak oil is now we have an enormous problem. But one good thing about peak oil is with every problem lies an opportunity, and there will be fortunes made from it.
NorwegianBlue wrote:"Tysonboss1" wrote:What are you trying to say with that link?I claimed that there were more known oil reserves now than in the 1970s.
You claimed that was untrue.
Hence the link.
Sure, oil production will decrease, but meh. We'll adapt, improvise and overcome – we always do. Oil wasn't a resource until people found a way to use it.
Having re-read your original post I have relised that I was wrong,… I thought that you said we were discovering more oil today hence my reply to that topic.
Having said that though,… I would not trust the figures of world oil reserves especially any figures coming out of opec there is just to much personal gain assoicated with over stating estimates.
Opec countries have limits to what % of there reserves can be pumped each year so they are most likly using very optimistic figures so as to allow them to pump more,…
and public companies will also use optimistic figures so as to increase share holder support,….
But again the the main thing is not the reserves in the ground it is the rate of production,….the last half of our oil will not be gushing at the speed of our first half.
Hi Everyone,
A 250ML of bottled water costs 80cents at supermarkets which makes it $3.20 a litre. A litre of Unleaded petrol in sydney today is $1.30. I would be more worried about the water and its expense rather than Peak Oil or the other End of World Scenarios.
Regards
SadeWhatever way you look at it investing in oil and gas companies and associates has to be seriously considered.
Sade, good point on Peak Water, its about the water stupid. Investing in companies that are in the water treatement, pumping, filtration, pipeline and associated facilities also has to be serioulsy considered. Met up with someone in Water Corp Perth last week and she says that WA is about to find out that although they think its all about iron ore and oil and gas the real pinch point is going to be getting water to new developments and then also getting the sewer away from them. She also said a very opportnistic individual has just signed off on direct flight between Kalgoorlie and Melbourne wished that I had thought about something as obvious as that all that new laour flying in direct.
Went for dinner the other night with a chap from Santos in Adelaide and he says that the cooper basin oil reserves are dropping and the growth for them is coal seam methane gas in western queensland. A new LNG plant in Gladstone is being touted (at least to talk Santos share price up as they will be bought shortly now that the SA ownership restrictions have been removed) fed by coal seam methane gas. from western qld A major water pipeline is also on the table from Fitzroy river to Gladstone. So all this water and gas and new mineral processing plants in Galdstone maybe that is a good place to invest in even buy an IP there maybe. Not forgeting if all the coal seam methnage gas is about to go big in Western QLD and new rail line for coal going ahead then maybe Toowomba the most affordable city and major centre for these devlopments might be a good place to invest. He also said that the water situation in Adelaide isn't getting any better and being an oil and gas man he has started to think about water, the wine is good though.
Desal plant in Sydney sideways (dam is up) Desal plant in Gippsland on the table, anothere desal plant in Perth, one nearly finished in Tugun, water grid in Brisbane 100% over budget(this is good if you are the one getting the 100% over budget) and world wide shortage of desal plant technology and all water infrastucture equipment and materails another opportunity. Tyco are naming there price and telling you when you will get it and we are talking years.
So we have iron ore up in price and another hike coming, coal tipped to rise, oil up, water scarce, gold and copper strong, uranium down( but demand about to go through the roof) zinc and all down, LNG price rising. Lots of opportunity everywhere and no money left to invest..
Peak Everything…..
NorwegianBlue wrote:Peak oil is defined as reaching the limit of the rate of production. Not "running out" of oil.The world has more known oil reserves now than in the 1970s.
Worst comes to worst – oil products will get more expensive. As it gets more expensive, less economical deposits become viable (like oil shale in Canada). As more deposits are exploited the rate of production is increased, and the "peak" moves again.
I've survived the following end-of-the-world scares;
Nuclear Winter
Global Cooling
Mass Starvation
Acid Rain
Y2K
SARS
Global WarmingI expect to survive Climate Change and Peak Oil as well.
I wonder what the next money-making "scare" theme will be?
foundation wrote:Hi Tysonboss. Don't forget that correlation does not imply causation and that even if a causal relationship exists, its direction of influence may be unknown. So, could it be that world demand for oil slowed sharply when prices passed a certain threshold? A casual observation also shows that the sudden escalation in price occurred several years before the drop in production. This certainly weakens the case for a causal relationship!
F. [cowboy2]
Well said F;
it's a bit like the argument about the amount of carbon dioxide produced was causing the world temps to rise.
It turns out that the world temps were causing the CO2 levels to rise.
So, a lot of it is dependant on how the stats are interpreted.
Folks, as Steve says 'problem + solution = profit.'
Is there anyone that's willing to be pro-active in helping to design a vehicle that runs on alternate means of fuel?
Imagine if we could make our own car that doesn't cost more to run as the fuel price increases,I'm only inviting positive and pro-active feedback *(no comments telling me why it can't be done please)
So far I have heard of running a car on solar, oil from fish and chips shops, wind power or even a combination I guess.
Are there any engineers or anyone with some good ideas, who is either interested in a joint venture (of changing the world
or has anything to add?email [email protected]
mobile: 0414 725 207Cheers, Geoff
This website shows the oil reserves in a few of the major oil producing nations. Show's that the official oil reserves in these countries somehow managed to double, over a 12 month period, during the mid 1980's but has basically remained constant ever since. An interesting read that i thought i would share.
Tattshttp://www.energyandcapital.com/articles/oil-opec-reserves/248
Just thought I would reflect Back on this post now that oil hit over $100 a barrel recently.
It was a price spike I know,… however unless the usa plunges deep into recession we should see Oil trading steadily over $100 buy the by winter,
So far we Aussies have been sheltered from most of the oil price increases due to our $$$ strenghting against the $US,
I hope our $ remains strong or we will be feeling the burn.
A new car releaaed in India for under 3000AUD there will be plenty of takers, 17,000 new cars a day on the rod in China.
150 a barrel not far away and the price to produce a barrel in the mid 20's.
Baack on the subject all the more reason to invest in an OIl company that has proven reserves say Woodside for example.
Just got back from QGC coal seam methane site this week and its all go plenty of development and many major announcements coming. AGL announces a new pipeline on behalf of QGC last week.
duckster wrote:I suspect oil companies have purchased an invention developed in 1979 that converts water to hydrogen with very little electrical power and uses it on demand rather than storing it. It was developed and mentioned in Electronics Australia in 1979.Many years ago I was driven around in a car that ran on 70% water 30% petrol. The guy was a wiring genius (had done car work patented for bosch components – alternators etc. He had wires running from the battery back into electrodes inside a pvc capped container (sewer pipe) and the hydrogen gas running from this gadget through plastic tubing back to the carby. Very hush hush and illegal apparently. Said he was very close to the 100% water conversion. Also showed me some remarkable stuff with electricity created from magnetic fields running through the earth. Had a light which lit up without any battery or other power. Was really paranoid about getting found out by multinationals, oil companies etc. He had recently had a friend detained for "illegal activity" using the magnetic fields to power his house. Any one heard of this grass roots technology. Imagine the shit hitting the fan if suddenly we could all easily convert to water as fuel.
Food for thought (or maybe water for thought)!!
NorwegianBlue wrote:I've survived the following end-of-the-world scares;Nuclear Winter
Global Cooling
Mass Starvation
Acid Rain
Y2K
SARS
Global WarmingI expect to survive Climate Change and Peak Oil as well.
lol
or has anything to add?
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