Just wondering if any of the investors out there are preparing for peak oil? You may be aware that it has broken records yet again and could be as high as $90US P/B by Xmas
What do you think the ramifications would be to our economy locally and globally when it reach's $200 US P/B in the next 3 to 5 years?
Cheers,
Graham
I believe that oil is to cheap,
Crude should be trading at around $150 a barrel,
We have a great system of supply and demand, there are so money alternative fuels out there under development that are cash strapped, and people believe them to be to expensive, if oil were trading at $150 a barrel so much investment $$$ would flow into alternatives many technogies would be come alot more viable, such as.
Oil sands mining, oil shale, coal to oil, coal gasification, Biodiesel and ethanol,……and we would make much better use of gas for fuel,
also hybrid technolgy would receive a great boost,…… In the coming years cars that are "plug in" hybrids meaning that the run on petrol/electric and electric batteries that you can charge at will use only about 15% of the fuel that a normal car uses.
I think that the economic effects of peak oil will be short term, the biggest longterm effects of oil that threatin the economy are the enviromental impacts which will come in about 25years
Anyone Intrested in this topic should rent a DVD called "Crude", great australian documentry on the world oil industry.
I believe that a 3 bed townhouse @350K within 10km of the major CBD's is a better investment option than a 3 bed house on large block @350k some 25km from cbd because of the increasing costs of fuel.
Alernative fuels are definatley going to come online in a big way but I reacon there will be a big time delay between affordabale alternitive fuels and the effect of peak oil on petrol prices.What we should be worried about is the impact on Australia's current account. Our home grown oil reserves are in serious decline and its going to hurt our economy when we start to import greater quantities at 100 USD/STB. The government plans to offset this by increasing LNG sales. This solution may work for awhile but seems a bit inept as we will simply be solving things relying on our natural resource wealth again. Our get out of jail free card.
What happens to countries with poor balance of payments? A. they cant trade with other nations and hence say goodbye to all your imported luxuries!
Just watched another DVD relating to this topic called " Who killed the Electric Car"
I think it is a must watch.
Tysonboss1 wrote:Just watched another DVD relating to this topic called " Who killed the Electric Car"I think it is a must watch.
Hi Tyson Boss,
I have a copy, as well as Ä Crude Awakening, I have just finished watching The End Of Suburbia and waiting for the release of Escape From Suburbia, all very good watching. You could say I know my stuff regarding peak oil.
Have a look at these links for some really good free viewing. http://www.abc.net.au/science/crude/ and http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/ http://abc.net.au/4corners/special_eds/20060710/
The reason why I asked the initial question is to find out how many heads are in the clouds, I was once a financial planner that once got a rude shock called peak oil.
We need to act and we need to do it fast, in the coming weeks and months I will be trying my best to form a team of like minded individuals to work out a game plan to save our own butts. It will be to late for the masses.
Interested in hearing your thoughts,
Regards,
Graham
I have been doing alot of research and thinking about peak oil,…
As far as investing in property is concerned I believe property near public transport, especially the train lines will be a good idea.
As for investing in the share market I believe the sectors that will perform well are,
Oil Companies,…… as long as they have good reserves, their profits will increase expotially with the price of oilLPG and natural gas companies,…. will benefit in two ways, progressively more cars burning lpg and more power stations burning natural gas along with higher gas prices will mean incresed profits,
Biofuel Companies,…… All though biofuels are not the silver bullet they will be part of the transition and the price they can sell there biodiesel and ethanol at will increase with the oil price, also as we move to plug in hybrids biofuels could make up the remaining 15% fuel needed, also there is reserch being done to see if they can use ethanol in aviation fuel,
Companies involved in electricity production, especially those from renewables ( geothermal in particular),….. electricity demand is going increase dramatically and the price of electricity will be increasing as alot of the 20year contracts are expiring and being rplaced with 5 year and market rate contracts.
Coal companies,… Coal is going to be in high demand for both electricity production and coal to oil technology, and as coal becomes cleaner it will become the energy of choice for alot of countries,
it's funny; you would think that people would move closer to work, get rid of the car and save time on the commute and money on the gas.
But no; the average Joe is doing just the opposite; moving out to where he can buy a big house for less, and buying the best car he can get a way with and driving an hour or more to work.
So, I guess the peak oil price will continue to go up. Should I buy some oil shares with anyone in particular, as well as more property on the outshirts that is affordable for the masses?
Perhaps with the increased oil prices councils will be forced to allow more subdivisions closer to the city.
Developers paradise.Just a thought.
Correct, suburbia was created after WWII, it was a dream for most to have that country life away from the dirty cities, and they were very dirty, however we all know this has changed. Within 3 years Americans built over 2.7 million burbian houses, all made possible by cheap energy= cheap transport= cars!
U can all tell me what will happen to these areas when your fuel is at $4 per litre, how about $10 per litre? How do you get your tomatoes that are grown in Bundaburg? The days of the 3000 mile ceasar salad are coming to an abrupt halt and no one has a plan!
Crude oil was $33 US a barrel in 04, just a few weeks ago it hit a record high of $83.60 per barrel US and no one noticed, in under 3 years its price has almost trebled, so you tell me what will stop it trebling again?
Suburbian property is going to be in for a rude shock, the coming economic collapse will verify not just mine, but industry experts thoughts.
We are running out, we dont have a plan, we have peaked!
In the 50's USA was the biggest exporter of crude in the world, now they are the biggest importer, making up for only 5% of the population but consuming 25% of the worlds known reserves, now China who makes up for 20% of the worlds population are now becoming Americanized, and guess what? They want a burbian home, a microwave and their own car too! At this point in time they consume only 6% of reserves, it dont take a rocket scientest to do the math now do it u all.
We are all in for some harsh times. Please, I beg you, do some research.
L.A Aussie wrote:it's funny; you would think that people would move closer to work, get rid of the car and save time on the commute and money on the gas.But no; the average Joe is doing just the opposite; moving out to where he can buy a big house for less, and buying the best car he can get a way with and driving an hour or more to work.
So, I guess the peak oil price will continue to go up. Should I buy some oil shares with anyone in particular, as well as more property on the outshirts that is affordable for the masses?
Hi La,
Just a few books will do the trick, most of the ones of have read were written more than 3 years ago, all have been spot on with their predictions, who's to say the later wont follow suit.
Try this one, "The Coming Economic Collapse & How To Thrive When Oil Hits $200 Per Barrel"
& Yes, spot on with your notes.
The Bars on this graph show the amount of oil discovered each year, and the line graph shows global consumption, Notice that even with all the modern technology available we have never discovered more oil than we did in 1968.50% of the worlds current production is coming from the giant oil feilds discovered 5 decades ago, which are now maturing and in slow decline,
the oil feilds that are being discovered these days are much smaller, harder to get at, and being pumped out much faster than the mamouth feilds we have always relied on.
So as you can see we reached our " Discovery OIL PEAK" in 1968, our "Production OIL PEAK" is not to far away
Nice graph, there is reems of information on the subject, some good some bad, its up to you to read between the lines and account for your own conclusions. For me, house is sold now looking for some good land to sow basically.
I was a financial planner, now a building company owner, get prepared, see the light and good luck.
This chart shows global production since 1930,….. the green shows the USA production peak in 1970 and a steady decline,…. europe peaked in 1999,… russia peaked in 1989,….. Since then the world has relied on the middle east to meet excess demand but as the chart shows the middle east is due to peak,……However even though the worlds production is Peaking demand is still growing by 5% per year,… made worse by the industrialisation of china and india.
what is even worse though is that the price of oil is affect disproportionately to any down turn in production, meaning a 5% downturn in production means the price can jump 50%.
I Found this graph which shows what I was trying to explain about the price of oil rising out of proportion to the fall in production If you look at a drop in supply during the '70's due to opec cutting back production, you can see that production was reduced by about 10% but the price rose from $5 a barrel to close to $40 a barrel,…. that means it doubled by nearly 8 times,…. and this was only a short term man made production shortage,…. the next shortage will be a lot more permanant and a lot more drastic,…. No wonder America wants to open up Iraqs oil feilds,….When you hear on the news that the oil price is going up due to a hurricane slowing production at a few oil feilds,… or political unstability in another area,…. because its winter in the northern hemisphere,…. I think this is a sign that we are pumping as much oil as we possibly can and are only just meeting demand,…. to me this is a sure sign of hitting the peak of production,…
look at any modern oil feild and you will see wells absoulutly everywhere pumping 24/7,…if they can fit another well into the feild they will,…. they even pump water and steam into the ground to force the oil up quicker,…. how can these tired mature feilds keep up their currentl level of production into the future.
One thing to also take into consideration when investing is this, if you study the graph at the 1980 point, and do some research you will find the US gold per ounce hit $850 US, now you do the math regarding inflation in todays real terms. Now you will find the gold is only sitting at around $740 US, in real terms it should be around $1800 to $2500 per ounce. So who would like to double their money on that one??
Nice research Tyson
I enjoyed your work!
Plug in Hybrid Cars,….. Possibly One technogly that could save us from economic disaster,….
I think oil has been over rated lately – wind power is the way!
shane.barry28876 wrote:I think oil has been over rated lately – wind power is the way!Wind will be a valuable part of the energy mix,…. But will never provide large scale base load power,
Our best bet for this is Geothermal and Clean coal and possibly nuclear,….. But I think if there is going to be the predicted massive growth in Nuclear power we will probaly find the the Uranium indusrty will increase 10 fold and will peak rapidly also,
You must be logged in to reply to this topic. If you don't have an account, you can register here.
