- devo76 wrote:
Be aware of the negatives but work towards the positives.
Where do you lot get these mantras from. It's like you've been brainwashed by Tony Robinson or someone. Do you all get together on a Friday night for drinks at The Jonestown Bar and think them up?
Don't you love it?
I am always amazed to see that successful people are positive and focus on what they want to have happen.
Expect the best, but prepare for the worst.
Badgers_R_Us wrote:devo76 wrote:Be aware of the negatives but work towards the positives.
Where do you lot get these mantras from. It's like you've been brainwashed by Tony Robinson or someone. Do you all get together on a Friday night for drinks at The Jonestown Bar and think them up?
Well the opposite could be said for you. Do you sit at home scouring the doom and gloom web sites afraid to leave home becouse the sky is going to fall. You may think some people are overly positive but it might be you being overly negitive.As far as tony robinson goes, i would never go to that crap. I dont need someone to tell me to be positive.Positive thinking is a way of life.You keep on being negitive if you want. I know how i would rather live my life.
The people on this forum can often be split into the negative and positive, The doom and gloom and the optimistic. Regardless of who has the most success. Why be a negative person. They normally lead a lesser life regardless of ther financial position.devo76 wrote:devo76 wrote:Be aware of the negatives but work towards the positives.
Well the opposite could be said for you. Do you sit at home scouring the doom and gloom web sites afraid to leave home becouse the sky is going to fall. You may think some people are overly positive but it might be you being overly negitive.As far as tony robinson goes, i would never go to that crap. I dont need someone to tell me to be positive.Positive thinking is a way of life. You keep on being negative if you want. I know how i would rather live my life.The people on this forum can often be split into the negative and positive, The doom and gloom and the optimistic. Regardless of who has the most success. Why be a negative person. They normally lead a lesser life regardless of ther financial position.It's not that I'm particularly negative, I think I'm pretty balanced. In fact if you go back to the original post I made that started this “negative” aspect of this thread off, I was speculating on a bear market and promoting caution. I did qualify this by stating that I could be wrong. The response was a patronising, evangelistic outburst from Dreaming.
You make a great deal of assumptions about the nature of the people that make these posts. I suspect that it’s due to a myopic view about the world where the only valid thoughts are positive, where even the remotest opportunities to preach and scoff are sought. To me that’s negative.
Badgers_R_Us wrote:Be aware of the negatives but work towards the positives.devo76 wrote:devo76 wrote:
Well the opposite could be said for you. Do you sit at home scouring the doom and gloom web sites afraid to leave home becouse the sky is going to fall. You may think some people are overly positive but it might be you being overly negitive.As far as tony robinson goes, i would never go to that crap. I dont need someone to tell me to be positive.Positive thinking is a way of life. You keep on being negative if you want. I know how i would rather live my life.The people on this forum can often be split into the negative and positive, The doom and gloom and the optimistic. Regardless of who has the most success. Why be a negative person. They normally lead a lesser life regardless of ther financial position.It's not that I'm particularly negative, I think I'm pretty balanced. In fact if you go back to the original post I made that started this “negative” aspect of this thread off, I was speculating on a bear market and promoting caution. I did qualify this by stating that I could be wrong. The response was a patronising, evangelistic outburst from Dreaming.
You make a great deal of assumptions about the nature of the people that make these posts. I suspect that it’s due to a myopic view about the world where the only valid thoughts are positive, where even the remotest opportunities to preach and scoff are sought. To me that’s negative.
I make no assumptions. Anyone would agree you have a more negative approach to this topic than some.
Myopic view ra ra ra. You seem to interpret things out of nothing and twist them around.
BUT I COULD BE WRONG !!!devo76 wrote:Badgers_R_Us wrote:Be aware of the negatives but work towards the positives.devo76 wrote:devo76 wrote:
Well the opposite could be said for you. Do you sit at home scouring the doom and gloom web sites afraid to leave home becouse the sky is going to fall. You may think some people are overly positive but it might be you being overly negitive.As far as tony robinson goes, i would never go to that crap. I dont need someone to tell me to be positive.Positive thinking is a way of life. You keep on being negative if you want. I know how i would rather live my life.The people on this forum can often be split into the negative and positive, The doom and gloom and the optimistic. Regardless of who has the most success. Why be a negative person. They normally lead a lesser life regardless of ther financial position.It's not that I'm particularly negative, I think I'm pretty balanced. In fact if you go back to the original post I made that started this “negative” aspect of this thread off, I was speculating on a bear market and promoting caution. I did qualify this by stating that I could be wrong. The response was a patronising, evangelistic outburst from Dreaming.
You make a great deal of assumptions about the nature of the people that make these posts. I suspect that it’s due to a myopic view about the world where the only valid thoughts are positive, where even the remotest opportunities to preach and scoff are sought. To me that’s negative.
I make no assumptions. Anyone would agree you have a more negative approach to this topic than some.
Myopic view ra ra ra. You seem to interpret things out of nothing and twist them around.
BUT I COULD BE WRONG !!!Take a pill and read my next post on a new topic, as you have inadvertently raised an interesting issue.
Dont like pills. Can i crunch it up and put it in a milk shake-
Badgers_R_Us wrote:I think that the current property boom will end with some potentially catastrophic results. Many Australian investors are geared up to the hilt (particularly the mums and dads players with the one property, representing a high proportion of investors) and the clouds are gathering for these and many thousands of home owners with large amounts of debt.
Much of the individual wealth created today is on the back of asset booms. Unprecedented consumer spending (and debt) has been driven by borrowings against equity in property. As we move into a relatively precarious situation with a US recession looming we are going to see consumer spending drop leading to a drop in demand for product. The likelihood of a US recession impacting on the rest of the world is very strong, particularly in Australia where lower global consumer demand for goods will result in a slowdown in the Chinese and Indian economies (although interestingly Japan is out biggest trading partner) impacting on our resource-driven economic boom.
How will this affect us? A slowdown in the economy, coupled with an increase in the cost of borrowing, will result in fewer jobs, higher interest rates and a rise in defaults (this includes business bankruptcies since business borrowing is at an all-time high also). With the glut of property and a potentially sustained period of recession it’s unlikely that the market will recover for some years.
So what to do? I have a problem with the notion that the market will keep on rising as required by most property investment strategies. They say time is the essence, and so long as you can afford to stick it out for at least 7 – 10 years (the usual property cycle) you’ll be fine. This has 2 pitfalls: 1) it assumes that you can afford to see the cycle through and 2) a cycle is going to be like any other cycle.
The only thing that is hard to predict is how bad the recession will be. If it’s only a mild cold we all catch from the US, then you may be able to ride it out. If we catch pneumonia then the smart money will sell up now in a market that is still reaping silly prices, sit on your cash and buy when there are a ton of houses up for mortgagee sales in about 2-3 years time.
I know this is very pessimistic but there are predictions of a “perfect storm” on the horizon. Whilst a recession is very hard to predict I would not be betting on a winning horse if the vet is telling me his heart could go at any time.
But I could be wrong!
But I was not!
Have to agree with Badgers. Australians are currently paying more for their mortgages (as a percentage of their incomes) than resident of ANY other country. Blind Freddie could see that it's not sustainable.
This is just the thin edge of the wedge. An architect friend of mine told me he knows of many major developments now not going ahead due to credit crunch. His words were "we ain't seen nothing yet". He's been in the game for more than 50 years.A perfect storm indeed, and one which not even a one percent interest rate cut can ward off.
Cash is king.
Hold tight!
Carlin
Badgers_R_Us – you were absolutely right. Even one month later people are saying "you ain't seen nothing yet".
Lost confidence is very difficult to regain, yet we see individuals putting off property investments partly because they think prices will drop further, or they don't think they can pay off the loan. Some are even stopping simpler pleasures, such as concert tickets.
In the US and A California experienced the biggest boom out of all the states, Consequently they have had the worst price crash with property selling for 50% less, On the whole America has another year or two of falling property prices, So you may very well see property selling for 40% of what its previous high was.
In Australia we are facing all the same problems as the Americans, But our boom was bigger, And then you get your average person saying property will never fall, Especially if you say 50%, But that is what is going to happen in certain places
I have read on this post people saying because of the increasing costs of building houses means therefore property can't fall in price, but this analogy is false.
If a ferrari is selling for $1,000,000 but only cost's $800,000 to build and they then lower there price to $800,000 this does not mean that demand for more ferrari's will increase.
As for all the blind faith happy ending people, Government is responsible for over 200 million deaths in the past century, All the positivity in the world would not have prevented these facts, This is unrelated but my point is that people should not be holding onto false hope and positive emotions, Actually thinking with emotion only leads to peoples downfall, Especially when it comes to Investing.
I think people should be looking at the facts AND history, the best and most proven way to determine the future is to examine the past, not astrology charts or false pretences !
If you have been planning on retirement this year and all your money was in the stock market, Would you have watched the charts go up over the years and hang on to the positive view that they will only always go up ? Because if you did and you had to pull your money out a few months ago, You would have been left with half of what you could have had.
But if you where looking at all the facts you should have come to the realization that we where almost at the peak of a boom, I know of two perfect examples for this story. one person I know said a year ago he should probably pull out of the stock market now because its obvious the boom is nearing its peak, But I guess emotional attachment and a sense of false hope stoped him and he has lost many hundreds of thousands of dollars this year because of that, If he where forced into liquidation this year he would have been ruined.
The other guy I know pulled out every dollar he had in the stock market 8 or more months ago because he acknowledged the facts and didn't let a sense of false hope or a everything is going to be rainbows and fairy floss mentality affect his decision.
I think that people should stop calling people who look at the facts "negative" or "Doom and Gloomers" and start calling them realists
It depends where your financial position is, and what you are invested in, and what your level of experience and education is.
Warren Buffet only invests in businesses. Some of these businesses have shares though, and he also owns a very successful stock fund. But the stock market crash of late is of little concern to him really, as his businesses are all solid performers and earn good incomes.
And stock markets are not property markets, and there are many different types of property to buy. A cheaper-end property is way less affected by downturns as there are many more renters and buyers for them. Higher-end properties are more likely to be bought by higher income earners who often don't have the financial intelligence to match their income, therefore these properties are more prone to larger price fluctuations when their lack of financial intelligence gets them into trouble during times like this. They pay too much when the booms are on, and sell low when their world crashes. Sad, but very common.
Most stock market investors are not investors, but people who buy managed funds or mutual funds. They hand over their cash to fund managers, hoping for the values to go up. If the stock market drops, they are creamed. Any D&G in the market is bad news for these people – the majority of stock market investors. It's sad.
But I pay no attention to their situation and the reporting on it by the wider media; which is geared towards the wider market of "investors" who are getting slaughtered.
if you are new to property, and are highly geared and neg cashflowed; this is a dangerous time should something go wrong such as injury, job loss etc. I wouldn't be selling, but I'd be a bit concerned and reducing debt like crazy, and don't buy higher-end and/or marginal speculative properties like Off The Plan deals.
If you are more established, have lower LVR's and good cashflows, then it is a great buying window about to open up.
Add to that dropping rates and rising rents, and you have a lovely situation – even when the media is screaming death to all. It's actually in our favour the more they scream.
This is me right now, so my mindset is a happy one in this climate; I can buy low and still not have LVR or cashflow problems.
I'm dusting off the cheque book.
So, get yourselves more educated, see the opportunity in this climate rather than everyone elses' fear, go out and make some money.
hbbehrendorff your points and sentiment is exactly the same as the rest of the "Doom and Gloomers" as you put them. Your points aren't relevant. The media has clearly had an impact.
Firstly. Australia's property market is not in the USA. The US issue was a bomb waiting to go off. 1. a massive oversupply of houses and subsequent over inflated prices, 2. people with no jobs or assets being leant large sums of money for houses that they could never hope to pay back. 3. very low introductory interest rates that spiked after several years which was when the mess started to unravel.
Secondly, there is a shortage of new property being built in Australia. There was a gap of 40,000 properties built in the last year compared to what was required to account for the growth in population. The gap has and will continue to get bigger, as property development declined due to high interest rates and costs. Even if developers begin to build now, we won't see any impact for at least 12 months as it takes that long to build.
LA Aussie makes some good points. Its those people who bought McMansions with their booming Aussie economy pay, that will feel the largest impact. Those who invest in affordable property close to infrastructure, transport and work hubs will weather the storm the best. At the end of the day, people have to live somewhere. They might not own or be repaying their home loan, but they'll be renting and paying for someone elses. Given we already have historically low vacancy rates, it's only going to drive rents higher and bring the investors back to property as the returns improve and keep property prices from plumetting.
Kuade wrote:hbbehrendorff your points and sentiment is exactly the same as the rest of the "Doom and Gloomers" as you put them. Your points aren't relevant. The media has clearly had an impact.Firstly. Australia's property market is not in the USA. The US issue was a bomb waiting to go off. 1. a massive oversupply of houses and subsequent over inflated prices, 2. people with no jobs or assets being leant large sums of money for houses that they could never hope to pay back. 3. very low introductory interest rates that spiked after several years which was when the mess started to unravel.
Secondly, there is a shortage of new property being built in Australia. There was a gap of 40,000 properties built in the last year compared to what was required to account for the growth in population. The gap has and will continue to get bigger, as property development declined due to high interest rates and costs. Even if developers begin to build now, we won't see any impact for at least 12 months as it takes that long to build.
LA Aussie makes some good points. Its those people who bought McMansions with their booming Aussie economy pay, that will feel the largest impact. Those who invest in affordable property close to infrastructure, transport and work hubs will weather the storm the best. At the end of the day, people have to live somewhere. They might not own or be repaying their home loan, but they'll be renting and paying for someone elses. Given we already have historically low vacancy rates, it's only going to drive rents higher and bring the investors back to property as the returns improve and keep property prices from plumetting.
EXACTLY.
The US is just about giving money away and thats not having much of an impact. Imagine if our lending rates reached bellow 5%?
I am looking at a property in a area i know well. On a subdividable central block in great area. Old house to the front split into 3 units with Garage for each. Getting close to $370 rent and would be achievable to purchase for around $240,000. Thats below the land value of a few years ago. A bit of a freshing up will push this rent higher also. I dont give a rats arse about the current climate if deals like this and better keep appearing. Long term you will do very well with stuff all if any holding costs until then.
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